Political Junkie's Guide To The Elections - Week Ending October 27, 2012 (Senate Slowly Swinging)

Rasmussen Reports Polling Data ^ | October 27, 2012 | Political Junkie Too

[Political Junkie Too]

Previous Editions:

October 20, 2012
October 13, 2012
August 11, 2012
August 4, 2012
July 21, 2012
Premier - July 4, 2012

Here is the latest update of my Rasmussen state-by-state presidential model.

The model begins with the final results of the 2008 election, and updates those results with current Rasmussen state polls as they are published.

Final 2008 Electoral College results were Obama 365, McCain 173. My model begins with Obama 364, McCain 174, due to not handling the few split-win states.

Furthermore, 2010 apportionment favored Republicans, leaving us with a starting point of Obama 358, Romney 180.

This Edition's Updates:

The Race for the White House

Since the last report, Romney is finally pulling ahead of Obama. Obama's Electoral College count has gone down from 259 to 243 Electoral Votes. Romney has risen from 248 to 261, leaving 34 EV up for grabs. Romney's lead is soft, however, because he has to defend 48 Leaning Electoral Votes to Obama's 6. Obama has a stronger base of 237 Electoral Votes to Romney's 217.

If the election were held today, the race would be nearly tied. Probabilistically, Romney has 266 Electoral Votes, and a 44% chance of winning, up from 36% last week. If I add a Democrat bias adjustment to the model, Romney has 291 EV (and a P90 of 317) with an 85% chance of winning.

This week, Rasmussen polled Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. Let's look at each state.

In Arizona, Romney sustained his 52% support, while Obama gained +2% from a late September poll to 44%. Arizona remains Safe for Romney.

In Colorado, Romney is pulling ahead of Obama. Romney gained +1% from two weeks ago to 50%. Obama lost -2% to 46%. Colorado moves from Toss-up to Strong for Romney, giving Romney 9 Electoral votes.

In Florida, the race tightened again this week. Romney lost -1% to 50%, and Obama gained +2% to 48%. Florida downgrades from Strong to Leans for Romney.

In Iowa, Romney gained +1% and Obama lost -1% from two weeks ago. Iowa is now tied at 48%, and moves from Leans Obama to Toss-up, and takes away 6 Electoral votes from Obama.

In Nevada, a re-poll from last week shows Obama sustaining his 50%, but Romney gained +1% to 48%. Nevada remains Leans Obama.

In New Hampshire, another re-poll from last week reverses the positions of Obama and Romney. Obama falls from 50% to 48%, while Romney gains from 49% to 50%. New Hampshire moves from Toss-up to Leans Romney, adding another 4 Electoral Votes for Romney.

In North Carolina, yet another re-poll from last week shows the state is unchanged at 52%-46% for Romney. North Carolina remains Strong for Romney.

In Ohio, a re-poll from last week shows Obama losing his +1% lead. Romney remained steady, making Ohio tied at a 48% Toss-up.

In Pennsylvania, the state is unchanged from two weeks ago. Obama still leads by 51%-46%. Pennsylvania remains Strong for Obama.

In Virginia, the fourth consecutive week of polling has Romney holding onto his 50%, while Obama gains +1% to 48%. Virginia remains a Lean for Romney.

In Wisconsin, the third week of polls has Obama losing -1% each week from 51% to 49%. Romney gained back the +1% he lost last week, making the state a 49% tie. Wisconsin moves back into Toss-Up, and 10 Electoral votes are taken away from Obama.

Below is the latest round of state poll movements. The first number is the change in GOP result from the last poll (or last election if no prior poll), and the second number is the separation from the Democrat candidate's result.

Watch List:

• Arizona: -2% (R +8%) - moves back into the margin of error
• Colorado: +3% (R +4%)
• Connecticut: No Poll (R -6%)
• Florida: -3% (R +2%)
• Georgia: Never Polled (R +5.2%) - 2008 result
• Iowa: +2% (R +0%)
• Michigan: No Poll (R -7%)
• Montana: No Poll (R +8%)
• Nevada: +1% (R -2%)
• New Hampshire: +3% (R +2%)
• North Carolina: +0% (R +6%)
• Ohio: +1% (R +0%)
• Pennsylvania: +0% (R -5%)
• Virginia: -1% (R +2%)
• Wisconsin: +2% (R +0%)

Summary of Electoral College breakdown

Obama - 243								Romney - 261
Safe		Strong		Leaning		Toss-Up		Leaning		Strong		Safe
EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State
55	California	7	Connecticut	6	Nevada	6	Iowa	4	New Hampshire	9	Colorado	9	Alabama
3	District of Columbia	16	Michigan			18	Ohio	13	Virginia	16	Georgia	3	Alaska
3	Delaware	20	Pennsylvania			10	Wisconsin	29	Florida	15	North Carolina	11	Arizona
4	Hawaii											6	Arkansas
20	Illinois											4	Idaho
4	Maine											11	Indiana
10	Maryland											6	Kansas
11	Massachusetts											8	Kentucky
10	Minnesota											8	Louisiana
14	New Jersey											6	Mississippi
5	New Mexico											3	Montana
29	New York											5	Nebraska
7	Oregon											3	North Dakota
4	Rhode Island											7	Oklahoma
3	Vermont											10	Missouri
12	Washington											9	South Carolina
												3	South Dakota
												11	Tennessee
												38	Texas
												6	Utah
												5	West Virginia
												3	Wyoming
194		43		6		34		46		40		175

2008 Final Results

Link to 2008 Final Election Map

Current State Leanings

Link to Current Electoral College Map

Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

• "GOP Electoral Votes P10” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 10%.
• ”GOP Electoral Vote EV” – the expected value (mean) or probability-weighted average of the simulation.
• ”GOP Electoral Vote P90” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 90%. Or, it is the value where the probability of the actual number being higher is 10%.
• ”Probability of 270” – The probability associated with value 270 (the Electoral College majority goal).

Week	GOP Electoral College P10	GOP Electoral College EV	GOP Electoral College P90	Probability of 270
2008 Election	180	180	180	0.00%
12-May-12	193	220.73	248	0.16%
19-May-12	197	225.09	248	0.23%
26-May-12	206	232.72	256	1.21%
02-Jun-12	216	242.46	266	4.43%
09-Jun-12	221	247.73	275	14.02%
16-Jun-12	230	257.37	282	28.95%
23-Jun-12	231	257.92	282	30.10%
30-Jun-12	225	254.58	282	24.61%
07-Jul-12	225	254.58	282	24.61%
14-Jul-12	225	254.58	282	24.61%
21-Jul-12	219	248.33	276	16.46%
28-Jul-12	215	244.1	272	11.78%
04-Aug-12	216	245.64	273	12.75%
11-Aug-12	215	245.24	273	12.05%
18-Aug-12	225	255.61	282	25.11%
25-Aug-12	223	252.39	281	21.52%
01-Sep-12	223	252.39	281	22.08%
08-Sep-12	224	252.45	281	21.66%
15-Sep-12	221	249.88	278	17.54%
22-Sep-12	225	252.98	278	20.34%
29-Sep-12	225	252.04	277	19.04%
06-Oct-12	225	253.31	279	21.00%
13-Oct-12	233	258.74	283	27.69%
20-Oct-12	242	264.04	285	35.65%
27-Oct-12	238	265.95	291	44.18%

Link to Probability Chart

And over in the Senate...

The Republican GOP Senate campaign has made slight gains this week, taking back one seat. Republicans were looking at a near certainty to take control of the Senate before the conventions.

This is the latest run of my Rasmussen state-by-state Senate model.

The model begins with the final results of the last Class 1 election, and I will update those results with current Rasmussen state polls as they are published.

Final 2010 Senate results were Republicans taking 47 seats, and Democrats caucusing 53 seats. My model begins with here.

As of now, the Senate looks to be a 51-49 Democrat hold, with a probability of 19.2% for Republicans taking over. If I add the same Democrat bias correction as above, the Seneate becomes a 52-48 take-over for Republicans, with an 86% chance of occuring.

Since the last report, Rasmussen polled Arizona, Connecticut, Minnesota, Nevada, North Dakota, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin Senate races.

In Arizona, both Republican Flake and Democrat Carmona gained +3%, keeping the race a +6% lead for Flake at 50%-44% and a hold for Republicans.

In Connecticut, the past two weeks shows a +1% gain for Republican McMahon and a -3% loss for Democrat Murphy, making the race now a 48%-47% lead for Murphy. Hopefully, the momentum is swinging in McMahon's direction.

In Minnesota, the first poll of the election shows Democrat Klobucher easily keeping her seat with a 56%-33% lead over Repulican Bills.

In Nevada, the third poll in a row shows Republican Heller holding onto his 50%, but Democrat Berkley gained back the +2% she lost two weeks ago. The race is now a 50%-45% Hold for Republicans.

In North Dakota, the first poll since mid-July has Republican Berg gaining +1% to 50%, but Democrat Heitkamp is closing with a +5% gain to 45%. The race is a pick-up for Republicans that they haven't given back.

In Ohio, a third week of polling has the Democrat Brown losing -1% and Republican Mandel unchanged. The race is now 48%-44% for Brown, and a Hold for Democrats.

In Virginia, a fourth week of polling has the race closing in. Over the month, Republican Allen gained +3% and Democrat Kaine lost -3%, making the race 49%-48% Hold for Kaine.

In Wisconsin, Republican Thompson gained +1% from two weeks ago, and Democrat Baldwin lost -5%. The race is now 48%-46% pick-up for Republicans, and a re-take of a lost gain in the race.

Below is the latest round of state polls. The first number is the change in GOP result from the last poll (or seat election if no prior poll), and the second number is the separation from the Democrat candidate's result.

Watch List:

• Arizona 1: +0% (R +6%)
• Connecticut 2: +4% (R -1%)
• Florida 2: No Poll (R -5%)
• Indiana 2: No Poll (R +5%)
• Massachusetts 1: No Poll (R -2%)
• Missouri 2: No Poll (R -8%)
• Montana 2: No Poll (R +0%)
• Nevada 1: -2% (R +5%)
• North Dakota 1: -4% (R +5%) - moves back into the margin of error
• Ohio 1: +1% (R -4%)
• Rhode Island 2: Never Polled (R -7%)
• Tennessee 2: Never Polled (R +2.7%)
• Virginia 2: +0% (R -1%)
• Wisconsin 2: +6% (R +2%)

Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

• "GOP Senate Seats P10” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 10%.
• ”GOP Senate Seats EV” – the expected value (mean) or probability-weighted average of the simulation.
• ”GOP Senate Seats P90” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 90%. Or, it is the value where the probability of the actual number being higher is 10%.
• ”Probability of 51” – The probability associated with value 51 (the Senate majority goal).
• ”GOP Gain” – The difference between the GOP EV and the current number of seats (47), rounded down.

Week	GOP Senate Seats P10	GOP Senate Seats EV	GOP Senate Seats P90	Probability of 51	GOP Gain
2010 Election	47	47	47	0.00%	0
12-May-12	50	51.24	52	77.01%	4
19-May-12	50	51.24	52	77.01%	4
26-May-12	49	50.75	52	58.53%	3
02-Jun-12	49	50.63	52	54.34%	3
09-Jun-12	49	50.37	52	44.50%	3
16-Jun-12	49	50.37	52	44.50%	3
23-Jun-12	49	50.05	52	34.52%	3
30-Jun-12	49	50.05	52	34.52%	3
07-Jul-12	49	50.05	52	34.52%	3
14-Jul-12	51	52.04	54	91.10%	5
21-Jul-12	51	52.19	54	92.42%	5
28-Jul-12	51	52.17	54	92.18%	5
04-Aug-12	50	51.33	53	75.39%	4
11-Aug-12	50	51.43	53	78.01%	4
18-Aug-12	50	51.76	53	84.33%	4
25-Aug-12	51	52.59	54	95.05%	5
01-Sep-12	50	51.64	53	82.53%	4
08-Sep-12	50	51.64	53	82.46%	4
15-Sep-12	50	51.19	53	73.42%	4
22-Sep-12	48	49.83	51	30.40%	2
29-Sep-12	47	48.79	50	9.26%	1
06-Oct-12	47	48.49	50	4.63%	1
13-Oct-12	47	48.74	50	8.42%	1
20-Oct-12	47	48.62	50	5.51%	1
27-Oct-12	48	49.37	51	19.18%	2

Link to Senate Probability Chart

[Political Junkie Too]

With only one week left, can Romney drag the Senate over to Republicans? Time is running out.

-PJ

[Political Junkie Too]

Pinging the list.

-PJ

[bitt]

ping

[Darren McCarty]

Voted for Hoekstra here hoping for the upset.

[Darren McCarty]

Voted for Hoekstra here hoping for the upset.

[1010RD]

It would be excellent to win the Senate, but politically dangerous. If we control it all and the economy isn’t moving 4 years hence the GOP will be hard pressed to hold on.

[Mr. Jeeves]

In Florida, the race tightened again this week. Romney lost -1% to 50%, and Obama gained +2% to 48%. Florida downgrades from Strong to Leans for Romney.

Exactly what has happened to cause Obama to gain points in Florida this week? New York liberals moving down for the winter, and getting ready to vote a second time?

[Marine_Uncle]

One can almost forget there is soon to be a major election taking place with all the news being thrown out regarding the Benghazi tragedy.
If the Senate does swing back to the Republican side, and the House stays in Republican control, one could wonder what they will collectively do in order to somehow change the spending patterns that put us into this mess to begin with.

[Political Junkie Too]

That has always been the rap against Republican Congressmen since they first retook the House after 40 years in 1994-1995.

They said that Republicans were so used to being in the minority that they didn't know how to (or were just plain uncomfortable at) using majority tactics.

Republicans shouldn't fear leading, but I'm afraid that they too often cower from power.

Just like how liberals try to shame America from using its strength against others (i.e., proportional response), they are also successful at convincing Republicans against using their strength when they take control of Congress. Democrats slam Republicans at every turn, but always make Republicans "reach across the aisle" for "bipartisan compromise" when Republicans have control.

-PJ

[carlo3b]

politically dangerous. If we control it all and the economy isn’t moving 4 years hence the GOP will be hard pressed to hold on.

Very astute, and spot on.. I have the same reluctance about the Senate, and holding a razor thin majority.. Consequently, the Dems would do to us, basically what we did to them, and force a super majority to pass most every meaningful bill without a prolong fight..

Having to negotiate with weak Dems with a purple state, gives a win with cover and a bipartisan conclusion that Obambam never had..

I would give up my favorite copper-bottom skillet, to have a super majority and skate to utopia but it ain't gonna happen this time..

[randita]

Below is a list of competitive or potentially competitive Senate races ranked roughly from the most to least likely GOP win. The rankings might change slightly as the election season progresses.

Note the differentiation between the seats that represent GOP Holds and those that represent opportunities for Gains. Democrats currently control 53 seats in the Senate (including two independents who caucus with the Democrats), Republicans 47. If Republicans hold all the seats they have currently, they will need to gain four more seats to have a majority.

Links to GOP primary winners' websites are included so you can learn more about the candidates and donate, if you feel so inclined.

If you're interested in all polling on Senate races, check out Real Clear Politics Senate Polls

 

10/27/12 Race for the U.S. Senate Ranked Roughly From Most to Least Likely GOP Win
State	Republican Candidate	Democrat/IND Candidate	Hold OR Gain
NE*	Debra Fischer	Bob Kerrey	GAIN
ND*	Rick Berg	Heidi Heitcamp	GAIN
WI*	Tommy Thompson	Tammy Baldwin	GAIN
NV	Dean Heller+	Shelley Berkley	HOLD
IN*	Richard Mourdock	Joe Donnelly	HOLD
AZ*	Jeff Flake	Richard Carmona	HOLD
MT	Denny Rehberg	Jon Tester	GAIN
MA	Scott Brown+	Elizabeth Warren	HOLD
VA*	George Allen	Tim Kaine	GAIN
OH	Josh Mandel	Sherrod Brown+	GAIN
FL	Connie Mack	Bill Nelson+	GAIN
CT*	Linda McMahon	Chris Murphy	GAIN
PA	Tom Smith	Bob Casey+	GAIN
MO	Todd Akin	Claire McCaskill+	GAIN
MI	Pete Hoekstra	Debbie Stabenow+	GAIN
NM*	Heather Wilson	Martin Heinrich	GAIN
NJ	Joe Kyrillos	Bob Menendez+	GAIN
HI*	Linda Lingle	Mazie Hirono	GAIN
ME*	Charles Summers	Angus King (Ind.)	HOLD
*Open Seat          +Incumbent

 

[okie01]

It would be excellent to win the Senate, but politically dangerous. If we control it all and the economy isn’t moving 4 years hence the GOP will be hard pressed to hold on.

Horse hockey.

The "danger" is that Harry Reid and another Democrat Senate roadblock everything that Romney and the GOP House undertake to correct the economy...and, as a consequence, the economy stays in the tank for the next four years.

And one vital key to correcting the economy is repealing Obamacare. And, if we don't have the Senate, that's not going to happen.

"Politically dangerous", my butt! The only opportunity we have to succeed is to take the Senate along with the Presidency.

[Political Junkie Too]

Even with just a bare minimum control of the Senate, it would be easier for Romney to confirm the two (at least) Supreme Court picks he'll get to make.

Schumer and Leahy are still lurking out there, waiting to pounce on "out of the mainstream" judges.

-PJ

[okie01]

If the Senate does swing back to the Republican side, and the House stays in Republican control, one could wonder what they will collectively do in order to somehow change the spending patterns that put us into this mess to begin with.

Killing Obamacare immediately reduces the future spending by $3 trillion.

It's a start...

[bigbob]

Good work, thanks. Of course, only as accurate as the polling data...

[Political Junkie Too]

Thanks.

My bias correction routine randomly adds between 0-3 points to Republicans, and takes away the same from Democrats. That adjustment is worth 30 EV for Romney.

-PJ

[Kozak]

What is the point if we can’t get anything done, which we won’t if the rats hold the Senate?

[Marine_Uncle]

"It's a start... "
Indeed it would be.

[ExTexasRedhead]

PRIORITY!!! DeathCare has got to be repealed or we can all bend over and kiss our rears goodbye. Anyone over 65 needs to re-read their history books about Nazi Germany, IMO. ObamaCare/DeathCare is Holocaust II!!! People over 65 can forget getting medical care as Big Bro will deny you care and ship you to a Hospice Center. It’s already begun.

[Marine_Uncle]

I’ll second your statements. Facts well written.