Skip to comments.FiveThirtyEight Blog Doubles Down: Ohio a Near Lock for Obama
Posted on 10/27/2012 3:39:14 PM PDT by nwrep
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Here’s the deal. If Romney wins 50-46, or in that range, he will win enough EVs to win the presidency. It will just shake out that way.
No candidate in history has ever scored 50% and lost the presidency (not incl 1877 Compromise). No candidate has ever won the national vote by more than 1% and lost the presidency.
It’s the loser (or the underdog) who needs to find paths via the electoral college.
If Obama were up 51-46 and 50-46 in the national polls, we would not be hearng a peep about how Ohio could impact the election.
Obama is showing up in Youngstown, Ohio with Bill Clinton less than two weeks out from the election. We’re talking heart of unions, General Motors/Delphi, powerful Dem machine, etc. There is NO need under for ONE, let alone TWO of them to show up if they were not concerned about Ohio. Biden was just here too...
My apologies, faulty memory. CNN has it +5 for Obama, not +9.
My band got a UAW clambake gig one Summer. Dennis was there. I’m 6’3”. When we went thru the introduction line, I grabbed his little hand, pulled him close so he had to strain up his little turkey neck to look at me, and I told him I’d never vote for him! UAW never hired us again! I’d like to get my hands on his wife though!
Given the classlessness, criminality AND incompetence of this administration...it should be a 50 state sweep and R&R should win by 20 points.
The fact it won't be that way scares me. People are idiots and moochers.
Concerned or just keenly aware that all they have to do is keep Romney from winning OH and it’s just about game over.
I’d just hate to make history in the wrong kind of way.
I think Romney will win Ohio.. Consider the source. Unless you are a concerned troll.
>> As an oldtime FReeper, I am disturbed by the over-confidence (arrogance?) of far too many of my brethren who think R/R are coasting to victory on some kind of wave.
Who thinks that?
I certainly don’t.
What the DATA tell me is this: the race is in a statistical TIE. There is essentially no swing-state polling or national polling that has Romney or Obama with a lead above the MOE. (Florida may be the sole exception to that fact.)
Since it could go either way, DAMNED if I’m going to wring my hands and get all weepy and ASSUME that it’s going the WRONG way because some faggot from the NYT says so!
I am BELIEVING in the blessing, and not the curse.
You get all nancy-boy weepy and hand-wringy and whatever if it makes you feel better.
I have faith in God and I’m maintaining a healthy OPTIMISM in the face of the evil forces that would drag us down.
Since according to the FACTS and the DATA the race is essentially EVEN, why not BELIEVE that it could actually go the way of righteousness and light, and speak words of encouragement and blessing over our candidate and our future, instead of descending into pessimism based on what some godless NYT fruitcake thinks?
Just saying. You do what you want. I know what I’ll do.
Rasmussen had it tied yesterday, I believe.
We're very close to a "tipping point". I fear for the life my grandchildren will have. Having spent a week in the Florida panhandle, I'm energized with the massive anti-Obama energy down there. But we may somehow have to divide the country between workers and drones. I'm not sure if that is even possible.
Thanks for the info and the link.
>> I wouldnt give drinking or strangling liberals such short shrift.
LOL! Yeah, I think I’ll have a couple of beers and go out and find me a liberal. Fortunately for them, they’re scarce as hen’s teeth around here so I probably won’t succeed in hunting one down... :-)
Five Thirty Eight is highly partisan and extremely unreliable.
Real Clear Politics, which averages all the polls (the good ones and the not-so-good ones), has the following states listed as tossups:
Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada. Some of these shouldn’t even be close to being tossups in a normal year.
I’m in Oregon. Can’t swing a stick without hittin’ one.
Yeah, a polling firm TCJ came out this week showing Romney leading Ohio. Ras has it tied, IIRC...Mitt and his pathetic opponent are BOTH campaigning, LS our fellow FREEPer has been posting early voting analysis for weeks now, and momentum is clearly with Republicans.
For all these reasons I still think Ohio is in play for Romney and I won’t buy the reasoning of a clearly in-the-tank liberal NY SLIMES hack.
Mitt needs together a van full of Somalis.
Yes, I have read that, and it is very encouraging. It is a bit difficult to correlate that with polling data to date, but great news nevertheless.
Storm P: “It’s tough making predictions, especially about the future.”
Nate Silver’s a statistician who claims that he can predict the future by aggregating polling data and adding his proprietary magic sauce (aka fudge factor). He’s dined off his moneyball fame for over a decade and was either good or lucky re the 2010 election. I think he was lucky. We’ll see.
Let me explain why Romney will win Ohio by 5 points or more.
Obama won Ohio in 2008 by 4.5 points. McCain was a dud, Obama was new, fresh, and not George Bush. Does anyone think that Obama is in a stronger position today than 2008? No. Next, Obama’s numbers are off in every state that surrounds Ohio. In West Virginia, dem primary voters awarded a convicted felon with 43% of the vote; Kentucky dems gave “uncommitted” 41% of the vote. Obama isn’t even campaigning in Indiana, which he carried by point in 2008. And most believe that Michigan and Pa. are competitive. Are we to believe that the Ohio state line has magically sealed off all of these dropping numbers? No way. Next, the early/absentee numbers are devastating for the dems. There is strong evidence that blacks and college kids aren’t early voting at anywhere close the pace they did in 2008. Several counties with college campuses or large black populations or both are showing a noticeable drop-off in dem voting. In fact, the only county where dems are over-performing Republicans in early voting is Jefferson County, which is in the heart of coal country right smack dab on the West Virginia border. Finally, we should remember that Obama severely underperfomed John Kerry’s 2004 vote total (this underperformance was off-set by a bigger Republican drop-off). The reason? Working white guys did not come out to vote for Obama. Do we really think the white, working-class dems are going to come out in droves for Obama? No. What does this mean: Dems will have a noticeable drop-off across their entire base. Republcians are juiced. Romney will carry Ohio by 5 points, mimimum.
I wish I could believe you on this, but I heard similar type commentary here about Angle in Nevada, 2008 stuff with some states for McCain, etc.
Romney is not ahead in Ohio, but that doesn’t mean he is out. Zero is still below 50% but Ohio is hugely important (understatement).
All this talk of a landslide is complete nonsense. Get out and vote for RR and pray Obama doesn’t get another term.
Oh kiss my ass. I am concerned because of MASSIVE fraud activities having NOTHING to do with Nate Silver and his predictive analytics.
Good post, and my thoughts exactly.
And this is a great passage from the NRO article linked a few posts above: “...if you had any question as to whether or not Team Obama sees that writing on the wall, you can just watch their recent campaign activity for confirmation. A campaign with a robust, revved-up base does not sharpen attacks on core base issues like abortion, focus interviews on the Daily Show and MTV, and hold rallies almost exclusively on college campuses. Theres just over a week to go and the real battle should be for the middle. Every minute that the Obama campaign cant make a compelling argument to the middle is a minute lost to Romney and they know it, and it has them terrified.”
Stop the Eeyoring with the fear porn.
This will show up in the State races.
You will see Romney win Ohio.
If in Sept we could have been told we would be up 5pts in the national polls and tied in the swing states we would be delirious.
If you don't believe it, fine, on Nov.6th we will see who was right.
Until then, save the 'we can't win' nonsense, we are winning.
What part of 5pts ahead in the national polls don't you grasp?
You guys need to hide under the bed until election day.
Fraud is a problem, but not when the win is overwhelming like Ohio's is going to be.
Just my feeling on this. Obama is pissing off a whole bunch of Democrats and we seem to forget that little fact.
The tale will be told in 10 days.
Seriously. Why the eff are you posting this rot? Whats the point?
LOL! Don't hold back. Love your rant!
Obama isn't even appealing to the middle class, he is making appeals to his fringe supporters, the youth vote, Unions, etc.
The State polls are showing Obama even with Romney so the Democrats will not be discouraged and vote, this is about the Senate, not the Presidency.
One great thing about this election is arrogant media hyped clowns like Sliver will be finished after this election. Like Zogby after 2004, Silver name will be a punch line to jokes for the next decade
State polls lag behind national polls by 10-18 days. State by state polls are not done as frequently. Thus the state by state averages Sliver is counting on are still reflecting polls from early Oct. Once has to wonder what happens to Silver when the state by state polls come in line with the national polls over the next week? Silver keeps grasping for straws to validate his personal political opinions. Once this election is over Silver creditability as an analysis is going to be destroyed.
Problem is the polls Silver and the Democrats are siting are all based on a +3 to +9 Democrat over sample.
Weed out the Ohio polling that massively over samples Dems and you have a tie. Ties are bad bad news for incumbents since on election day undecided swing to the challengers
Which indicates you, like the rest of the Dems, are simply ignoring all facts that challenge what your emotion based opinions. Which "State by state" polls are you believing? Rass, Suffox, PPP, ARG and Gavis have Ohio bascially tied and Obama under 50%. The notoriously inaccurate MEDIA polls like CNN and Time are the ONLY thing keeping Obama average up in Ohio. Seems like Silver you are simply cherry picking which polls you want to believe
This hype about Oh is pure media manufactured nonsense to keep attention off everywhere else where Obama is in trouble. Obama can win Oh, lose WI and CO (both likely) and lose the election.
The only reason you are hearing this non stop hype about Oh is because it is the only place the Media can manufacture good news for 0
IIRC, the CNN Ohio poll is the only one with indies for Obama and the poll in general is weird.
Should get a better handle on things by next Wednesday or so. The last few days can also be interesting.
I hope you are right, though I have to chuckle how here at FR we have destroyed Gallup for years and suddenly they are the best polling firm in the world because our guy is ahead?
I’ve seen too many victories screwed up. Too much fraud, too many pollsters that don’t know what they are doing. Buck was supposed to win Colorado, he was up 3 going into the election night..he lost.
I hope RR wins, but you’ll forgive me for not exactly jumping on board and thinking it is a slam dunk like some of you do. Go back to 2010 and 2008 with some of the predictions here that became horribly wrong.
Mike Barone stated that if the popular numbers stay as they are +5 Romney will win.
Now, do we have to get out and vote, ofcourse.
But we are going to win.
What you are hearing regarding State polls being tied, despite admitting that Obama is down in every major demographic, is desperation by the Democrats to keep their turnout high for the other elections.
They know Obama is done.
I actually do believe Romney will pull it out. However as I recall how ONE address in Columbus in 2008 was used for the registrations of 14 out-of-state students working for OFA, it makes me uneasy.
I understand your concern, but this win will too big for them to steal.
After all, if the narrative became "Romney is going to win Ohio" then there would be absolutely no suspense left for the LSM to milk in these last 9 days.
If 0hio trends Romney, then the narrative would HAVE to switch to the fact of a GOP landslide, which of course the lamestream media will NEVER do.
0bama is already toast in most of the other states like VA, FL, NC, MO, etc., so the ONLY option to maintaining interest and revenues is for Ohio to APPEAR close.
I just don't see how Romney can have so much momentum nationally, and have Ohio magically buck the trend.
However, if 0bama DOES win Ohio, I'm confident at this point that Romney will pickup enough EV's regardless. Ohio might be enigmatic this election cycle, but it will not be enough to save 0bama.
Sheesh, ain’t that the truth.
Silver cherry picks data to serve his goals. In the linked article, he posts a “Probit Regression” which shows the probability of a candidate winning a state vs the polling average. OK, I don’t know what a Probit Regression is, nor do I know his raw data. But, I do know that his plot claims that if the state polls show a tied race, there is a 50-50 chance of that candidate winning the state on Election Day.
Makes sense... unless you’ve been following his data prior to today. Because in the Spring, he crunched the numbers and showed that the challenger tends to outperform the October polls relative to the incumbent. So, according to his own data in the Spring, if a state is tied in the October polls, the challenger has greater than 50-50 odds of winning. But his plot says the opposite.
Johnnie, I am referring to the same state level polling in Ohio referenced by Byron York in the National Review. The best we have there is R&R are tied. However, I agree that the polls may have some problems, and may not correctly represent the partisan demographics, but the extent of the deviation is unknown to me.