 |
Posted on 10/27/2012 9:06:41 PM PDT by Ravi
The poll results are in. With less than two weeks until the election, Ohioans as a whole, you have made your selection for president: You want Barack Obama AND Mitt Romney.
Your love for each is equal, according to results of the most recent Ohio Newspaper Poll of likely voters. It’s Obama 49 percent and Romney 49 percent. One percent of you prefer someone else and the other 1 percent still aren’t sure who you will vote for on Election Day.
The poll, taken between Oct. 18 and Monday, was sponsored by the eight largest circulating newspapers in Ohio, which includes The Repository. It was conducted by the Institute for Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati.
(Excerpt) Read more at cantonrep.com ...
ping
Democrats oversampled by 3+.
Using Gallup’s corrected R+1 model, Romney is ahead in OH 50 to 48 plus 1% for the others.
Will this make it into Nate Silver’s state polls?
Is Gallup’s R+1 for OH or nationally?
Poll Ping.
Slightly dem heavy poll. Romney was down 3 in their last poll. If I gently readjust poll and unskew it, Romney ahead? Yes or no? Confirms on the ground findings and absentee ballot totals. What am I missing?
Ha! +1
Thanks!
In their last poll Obama was ahead.
Good news.
If you adjust for the slight skew and anticipate record GOP-Indy-dissafected Democrats TURNOUT, you have a Romney/Ryan OH win!
nationally. Also @numbersmuncher ie. Jordan from NRO says they pushed the indies to lean one way or the other in effect making the sample less dem heavy than it otherwise would have been.
So in effect this is more like a D+6 poll or worse if they hadn’t pushed the indies to say which way they are leaning. Indies were obviously leaning Romney so they upped the rep totals by calling these republican leaning indies republicans so we wouldn’t yell at them for undersampling republicans. Very tricky these guys. If they did correct labelling, they wouldn’t push indies one way or the other and leave them as independents supporting Romney.
True republicans and dems would have been left alone also. If they did this, this sample appears to be a D+6 sample or worse.
More good news.
Saw only 11% indy? Too low?
Good thing is R was down 5 in this poll in Sept. Trend is our friend.
The necropolis vote???
Lol!
I know OH is important, but we are obsessing too much. If R is up 4-5 in the major nationals, and up 15 with Indy’s, he is NOT going to lose the race.
Every OH poll has had R behind for months. Now this past week, we have 3 now that show it tied. And each with suspect D+ samples. My guess is we see some R in the lead OH polls by mid week.
And even the lefty PPP daily has R49-48 today for his first lead I believe. Winning Indy’s 16 in their poll. And O’s approval is -8.
Romney has been 50% for TWELVE straight in Gallup and 5 straight in RAS. O has not been at 50% in either EVER. And he is in the 45-47% range even in the polls that are tied or show him with slight lead.
Think big picture. This is breaking Romney big time. If Obama is suspending campaign rallies for a couple of days, he knows its over. Hurricane is a good excuse for him to take some more time off from his job.
Bizarrely low level of indies, just 10 percent. interesting....no data on where indies are breaking out though.
Good final result though.
see 11
That right there is infinite wisdom.
True but all these threads being posted by certain members with headlines proclaiming huge early voting looking good for Obama is starting to get to me a little.
I try to look at the PVI for each state which is a pretty good approximator, rather than focusing on the individual state polls....Ohio has a PVI of +1, so in effect, whatever Romney’s national vote total is, add 1 and that is what his total in Ohio should be...so taking the Ras poll today of 50-46, we are looking at 51-46 Romney in Ohio...Now, there are some variables here such as the unprecedented focus being placed on Ohio by Zero, however, the final national vote is fairly predictive of the Ohio vote...
This poll has the same....big lead (no numbers given though) supposedly for O in early voting. I am just trying to think of 2010.....Dems were all excited with big early voting leads. Well, we all know that didn’t matter in the final result.
See link below to new Byron York on state of the race from some campaign insiders.
http://washingtonexaminer.com/how-romney-sees-the-polls/article/2511912#.UIy2pYVbyI8
Double Boom. Romney is gaining at the perfect time in Ohio.
He has yet to peak.
Looks like the firewall is burning. The Trend be our Friend.
Pray for America
What is PVI?
The pollsters said the same thing about Ohio in 2010. They said the early voting, and registrations favored the Democrats. They were wrong.
Kasich won the governorship.
Ohio Senate: No Republican incumbents lost , while 2 Democratic incumbents lost.
Ohio House of Representatives: No Republican incumbents lost, while 11 incumbent Democratic incumbent lost.
Correct. Romney up 5 means he wins NH, NV, CO, IA, and probably WI. I dont think he’ll need Ohio ... but he’ll get it.
Ohio has voted within 1-2% of the popular vote for the last 4 or 5 elections.
I so like the way you put it...Ohio has voted with the rest of the country in the past, within a very close range.
The way so many nervous Nellies and concern trolls put it, Ohio is determinative of how the country goes. Because somehow its electoral votes are gonna decide the whole election and we’ve got to be afraid that OH is going the wrong way from America.
Au contraire - your stated way is the correct one - OH mirrors the nation, it does not control it.
These guys must feel like th British at Isandlwana when the whole Zulu army started coming over the hill. "that's all of them, right?"
No, that's just the vanguard!
And the other thing these nervous types do - they confuse POLLs a couple of weeks, or one week, OUT from vote counting day, with the final ELECTION RESULT.
When we know that polls not only can, and do, NATURALLY change to reflect closing trends, but also that the pollsters change their assumptions as THE DAY nears.
They are trying to be close to RIGHT, because that represents their track record and is money - or not - in the bank next time.
So, rule of thumb, do not confuse polling a week or two out with final results.
You have it.
Wish (sigh) more on our side did.
Adrian Gray has addressed those claims-—actually, I spoke with him last week. Ds were cherry picking one county where they had a lead, and ignored many others, especially the bell weather counties which showed slight R leads. Again, we don’t even need to win early vote, just not lose huge. Gary’s numbers show that already, before Election Day we have eliminated almost all of the D early vote advantage so far.
So I suspect this public poll, as always, is a lagging indicator and that R is up 1-2 (a private pollster told me R+2) and that on Election Day the final shift of Indies will make it +3 or +4--I don't see it being higher than 4.5 even if the national poll is higher.
I think there’s another interesting point to be made here ... the impact of early voting on polls.
My understanding is that when someone called for a poll indicates that they’ve already voted, they’re automatically placed in the likely voter category ... skipping all the likely voter filters.
So given that there’s early voting in OH, and the conventional wisdom that significantly more Obama supporters are taking advantage of early voting (I was up in Cincy and Dayton yesterday and over the course of channel surfing on the radio I heard multiple pro-Obama ads talking up early voting. But no Romney ones).
Now I know that there’s been some discussion about whether the “Dems and Dem-leaning independents vote early” CW is correct or not, but if it is then this would mean that this poll is probably even further skewed pro-Obama than the couple/few points on party ID, right? Because Republicans and GOP-leaners have to clear a higher hurdle (getting past the likely voter screen) than Obama voters do ...
|
As Ravi mentioned above, if you “gently unskew” this poll (Ravi, you have won the best use of the English language award for that phrase!), you get maybe a 51-49 or 52-48 poll in favor of the Governor.
Based on Ravi’s spreadsheet updates or LS’s on the ground reports, I do believe that is how Ohio will end up
My prediction is that the Governor wins nationally at 53-47 (give or take) but Ohio is a point or two closer, let us say 51-49 or so.
So, in that sense Ohio will underperform for the Republicans compared to national totals but the Governor will still pull it out and we will get a minimum 2 point victory in OH
However, I must say, that I feel that we will take IA, WI, NH and CO and thus OH may not be pivotal at all
10 more days and we will find out if I am drinking the Kool Aid or not :-)
Ohio has always reflected the country. That’s why it consistently keeps picking the winner. If Romney is up in the national polls, he is up in Ohio.
Rarely does a GOP candidate underperforms in OH.
Per the writeup in the Akron Beacon Journal, this is a D +6 poll, not D +3. The breakdown is D 48, R 42, Independents 10. The PREVIOUS (September) poll has D +3 (D 47, R 44, I 10). In that previous D +3 poll, it was O 51 - R 46. Now it is 49-49. Romney leads on who better handles the economy (51-45) and enthusiasm (54-45). Given the D+6 skew, the poll is enormously encouraging.
IF the Ds are (as some think) cannibalizing their election day voters to pump up early voting, then the Rs will add to the lead more on election day.
One thing absentee voting does is bring out the party faithful who will be out of town, so their votes wouldn't change.
But one of the serious deficiencies of "early voting" is that when something big, such as Benghazi, happens in the last couple of weeks before the election, "early voters" may have had a change of heart . . . but too late. Course, that can cut both ways.
Then don't give them what they want...
Feel free to quote this instead...
| Natl | Bush | 2000 | 47.9% | 50,456,002 | 48.4% | 50,999,897 |
| Ohio | Bush | 2000 | 50% | 2,351,209 | 46.5% | 2,186,190 |
| Natl | Bush | 2004 | 50.7% | 62,040,610 | 48.3% | 59,028,444 |
| Ohio | Bush | 2004 | 50.8% | 2,858,727 | 48.7% | 2,739,952 |
| Natl | Bobo | 2008 | 52.9% | 69,456,897 | 45.7% | 59,934,814 |
| Ohio | Bobo | 2008 | 51.5% | 2,940,044 | 46.9% | 2,677,820 |
|
|
Partisan Voting Index
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.