Posted on 10/27/2012 9:06:41 PM PDT by Ravi
ping
Democrats oversampled by 3+.
Using Gallup’s corrected R+1 model, Romney is ahead in OH 50 to 48 plus 1% for the others.
Will this make it into Nate Silver’s state polls?
Is Gallup’s R+1 for OH or nationally?
Poll Ping.
Slightly dem heavy poll. Romney was down 3 in their last poll. If I gently readjust poll and unskew it, Romney ahead? Yes or no? Confirms on the ground findings and absentee ballot totals. What am I missing?
Ha! +1
Thanks!
In their last poll Obama was ahead.
Good news.
If you adjust for the slight skew and anticipate record GOP-Indy-dissafected Democrats TURNOUT, you have a Romney/Ryan OH win!
nationally. Also @numbersmuncher ie. Jordan from NRO says they pushed the indies to lean one way or the other in effect making the sample less dem heavy than it otherwise would have been.
So in effect this is more like a D+6 poll or worse if they hadn’t pushed the indies to say which way they are leaning. Indies were obviously leaning Romney so they upped the rep totals by calling these republican leaning indies republicans so we wouldn’t yell at them for undersampling republicans. Very tricky these guys. If they did correct labelling, they wouldn’t push indies one way or the other and leave them as independents supporting Romney.
True republicans and dems would have been left alone also. If they did this, this sample appears to be a D+6 sample or worse.
More good news.
Saw only 11% indy? Too low?
Good thing is R was down 5 in this poll in Sept. Trend is our friend.
The necropolis vote???
Lol!
I know OH is important, but we are obsessing too much. If R is up 4-5 in the major nationals, and up 15 with Indy’s, he is NOT going to lose the race.
Every OH poll has had R behind for months. Now this past week, we have 3 now that show it tied. And each with suspect D+ samples. My guess is we see some R in the lead OH polls by mid week.
And even the lefty PPP daily has R49-48 today for his first lead I believe. Winning Indy’s 16 in their poll. And O’s approval is -8.
Romney has been 50% for TWELVE straight in Gallup and 5 straight in RAS. O has not been at 50% in either EVER. And he is in the 45-47% range even in the polls that are tied or show him with slight lead.
Think big picture. This is breaking Romney big time. If Obama is suspending campaign rallies for a couple of days, he knows its over. Hurricane is a good excuse for him to take some more time off from his job.
Bizarrely low level of indies, just 10 percent. interesting....no data on where indies are breaking out though.
Good final result though.
see 11
That right there is infinite wisdom.
True but all these threads being posted by certain members with headlines proclaiming huge early voting looking good for Obama is starting to get to me a little.
I try to look at the PVI for each state which is a pretty good approximator, rather than focusing on the individual state polls....Ohio has a PVI of +1, so in effect, whatever Romney’s national vote total is, add 1 and that is what his total in Ohio should be...so taking the Ras poll today of 50-46, we are looking at 51-46 Romney in Ohio...Now, there are some variables here such as the unprecedented focus being placed on Ohio by Zero, however, the final national vote is fairly predictive of the Ohio vote...
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