Democrats oversampled by 3+.
Using Gallup’s corrected R+1 model, Romney is ahead in OH 50 to 48 plus 1% for the others.
Will this make it into Nate Silver’s state polls?
Bizarrely low level of indies, just 10 percent. interesting....no data on where indies are breaking out though.
Good final result though.
Double Boom. Romney is gaining at the perfect time in Ohio.
He has yet to peak.
Looks like the firewall is burning. The Trend be our Friend.
Pray for America
I think there’s another interesting point to be made here ... the impact of early voting on polls.
My understanding is that when someone called for a poll indicates that they’ve already voted, they’re automatically placed in the likely voter category ... skipping all the likely voter filters.
So given that there’s early voting in OH, and the conventional wisdom that significantly more Obama supporters are taking advantage of early voting (I was up in Cincy and Dayton yesterday and over the course of channel surfing on the radio I heard multiple pro-Obama ads talking up early voting. But no Romney ones).
Now I know that there’s been some discussion about whether the “Dems and Dem-leaning independents vote early” CW is correct or not, but if it is then this would mean that this poll is probably even further skewed pro-Obama than the couple/few points on party ID, right? Because Republicans and GOP-leaners have to clear a higher hurdle (getting past the likely voter screen) than Obama voters do ...
Per the writeup in the Akron Beacon Journal, this is a D +6 poll, not D +3. The breakdown is D 48, R 42, Independents 10. The PREVIOUS (September) poll has D +3 (D 47, R 44, I 10). In that previous D +3 poll, it was O 51 - R 46. Now it is 49-49. Romney leads on who better handles the economy (51-45) and enthusiasm (54-45). Given the D+6 skew, the poll is enormously encouraging.