I know OH is important, but we are obsessing too much. If R is up 4-5 in the major nationals, and up 15 with Indy’s, he is NOT going to lose the race.
Every OH poll has had R behind for months. Now this past week, we have 3 now that show it tied. And each with suspect D+ samples. My guess is we see some R in the lead OH polls by mid week.
And even the lefty PPP daily has R49-48 today for his first lead I believe. Winning Indy’s 16 in their poll. And O’s approval is -8.
Romney has been 50% for TWELVE straight in Gallup and 5 straight in RAS. O has not been at 50% in either EVER. And he is in the 45-47% range even in the polls that are tied or show him with slight lead.
Think big picture. This is breaking Romney big time. If Obama is suspending campaign rallies for a couple of days, he knows its over. Hurricane is a good excuse for him to take some more time off from his job.
That right there is infinite wisdom.
True but all these threads being posted by certain members with headlines proclaiming huge early voting looking good for Obama is starting to get to me a little.
I try to look at the PVI for each state which is a pretty good approximator, rather than focusing on the individual state polls....Ohio has a PVI of +1, so in effect, whatever Romney’s national vote total is, add 1 and that is what his total in Ohio should be...so taking the Ras poll today of 50-46, we are looking at 51-46 Romney in Ohio...Now, there are some variables here such as the unprecedented focus being placed on Ohio by Zero, however, the final national vote is fairly predictive of the Ohio vote...
Correct. Romney up 5 means he wins NH, NV, CO, IA, and probably WI. I dont think he’ll need Ohio ... but he’ll get it.
Ohio has voted within 1-2% of the popular vote for the last 4 or 5 elections.
These guys must feel like th British at Isandlwana when the whole Zulu army started coming over the hill. "that's all of them, right?"
No, that's just the vanguard!