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To: snarkytart

I know OH is important, but we are obsessing too much. If R is up 4-5 in the major nationals, and up 15 with Indy’s, he is NOT going to lose the race.

Every OH poll has had R behind for months. Now this past week, we have 3 now that show it tied. And each with suspect D+ samples. My guess is we see some R in the lead OH polls by mid week.

And even the lefty PPP daily has R49-48 today for his first lead I believe. Winning Indy’s 16 in their poll. And O’s approval is -8.

Romney has been 50% for TWELVE straight in Gallup and 5 straight in RAS. O has not been at 50% in either EVER. And he is in the 45-47% range even in the polls that are tied or show him with slight lead.

Think big picture. This is breaking Romney big time. If Obama is suspending campaign rallies for a couple of days, he knows its over. Hurricane is a good excuse for him to take some more time off from his job.


15 posted on 10/27/2012 9:24:15 PM PDT by gswilder
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To: gswilder

That right there is infinite wisdom.


18 posted on 10/27/2012 9:29:59 PM PDT by Ravi
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To: gswilder

True but all these threads being posted by certain members with headlines proclaiming huge early voting looking good for Obama is starting to get to me a little.


19 posted on 10/27/2012 9:30:44 PM PDT by snarkytart
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To: gswilder

I try to look at the PVI for each state which is a pretty good approximator, rather than focusing on the individual state polls....Ohio has a PVI of +1, so in effect, whatever Romney’s national vote total is, add 1 and that is what his total in Ohio should be...so taking the Ras poll today of 50-46, we are looking at 51-46 Romney in Ohio...Now, there are some variables here such as the unprecedented focus being placed on Ohio by Zero, however, the final national vote is fairly predictive of the Ohio vote...


20 posted on 10/27/2012 9:32:58 PM PDT by usafa92 (Conservative in Jersey)
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To: gswilder

Correct. Romney up 5 means he wins NH, NV, CO, IA, and probably WI. I dont think he’ll need Ohio ... but he’ll get it.
Ohio has voted within 1-2% of the popular vote for the last 4 or 5 elections.


28 posted on 10/27/2012 10:39:07 PM PDT by WOSG (REPEAL AND REPLACE OBAMA. He stole America’s promise!)
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To: gswilder
At some point these pollsters had to begin looking ar REAL percentages as seen in our absentee #s and the early vote reports. These simply didn't jibe with the polls, but these were indisputable indicators. Now, it could have been argued that a lot of Rs were going to vote D--- but even " Crazy Nate Silver" doesn't' believe that.

These guys must feel like th British at Isandlwana when the whole Zulu army started coming over the hill. "that's all of them, right?"

No, that's just the vanguard!

30 posted on 10/28/2012 4:33:12 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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