As Ravi mentioned above, if you “gently unskew” this poll (Ravi, you have won the best use of the English language award for that phrase!), you get maybe a 51-49 or 52-48 poll in favor of the Governor.
Based on Ravi’s spreadsheet updates or LS’s on the ground reports, I do believe that is how Ohio will end up
My prediction is that the Governor wins nationally at 53-47 (give or take) but Ohio is a point or two closer, let us say 51-49 or so.
So, in that sense Ohio will underperform for the Republicans compared to national totals but the Governor will still pull it out and we will get a minimum 2 point victory in OH
However, I must say, that I feel that we will take IA, WI, NH and CO and thus OH may not be pivotal at all
10 more days and we will find out if I am drinking the Kool Aid or not :-)
Rarely does a GOP candidate underperforms in OH.
IF the Ds are (as some think) cannibalizing their election day voters to pump up early voting, then the Rs will add to the lead more on election day.
One thing absentee voting does is bring out the party faithful who will be out of town, so their votes wouldn't change.
But one of the serious deficiencies of "early voting" is that when something big, such as Benghazi, happens in the last couple of weeks before the election, "early voters" may have had a change of heart . . . but too late. Course, that can cut both ways.