Slightly dem heavy poll. Romney was down 3 in their last poll. If I gently readjust poll and unskew it, Romney ahead? Yes or no? Confirms on the ground findings and absentee ballot totals. What am I missing?
In their last poll Obama was ahead.
If you adjust for the slight skew and anticipate record GOP-Indy-dissafected Democrats TURNOUT, you have a Romney/Ryan OH win!
The necropolis vote???
As Ravi mentioned above, if you “gently unskew” this poll (Ravi, you have won the best use of the English language award for that phrase!), you get maybe a 51-49 or 52-48 poll in favor of the Governor.
Based on Ravi’s spreadsheet updates or LS’s on the ground reports, I do believe that is how Ohio will end up
My prediction is that the Governor wins nationally at 53-47 (give or take) but Ohio is a point or two closer, let us say 51-49 or so.
So, in that sense Ohio will underperform for the Republicans compared to national totals but the Governor will still pull it out and we will get a minimum 2 point victory in OH
However, I must say, that I feel that we will take IA, WI, NH and CO and thus OH may not be pivotal at all
10 more days and we will find out if I am drinking the Kool Aid or not :-)