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To: Steelfish; LS; LdSentinal; Perdogg; Jet Jaguar; SoftwareEngineer; tatown; HamiltonJay; plushaye

Slightly dem heavy poll. Romney was down 3 in their last poll. If I gently readjust poll and unskew it, Romney ahead? Yes or no? Confirms on the ground findings and absentee ballot totals. What am I missing?


7 posted on 10/27/2012 9:10:56 PM PDT by Ravi
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To: Ravi

In their last poll Obama was ahead.

Good news.

If you adjust for the slight skew and anticipate record GOP-Indy-dissafected Democrats TURNOUT, you have a Romney/Ryan OH win!


10 posted on 10/27/2012 9:16:52 PM PDT by txrangerette ("...hold to the truth; speak without fear". (Glenn Beck))
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To: Ravi

The necropolis vote???


13 posted on 10/27/2012 9:19:06 PM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (cat dog, cat dog, alone in the world is a little cat dog)
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To: Ravi; LS; LdSentinal; Perdogg; Jet Jaguar; SoftwareEngineer; tatown; HamiltonJay; plushaye; ...

As Ravi mentioned above, if you “gently unskew” this poll (Ravi, you have won the best use of the English language award for that phrase!), you get maybe a 51-49 or 52-48 poll in favor of the Governor.

Based on Ravi’s spreadsheet updates or LS’s on the ground reports, I do believe that is how Ohio will end up

My prediction is that the Governor wins nationally at 53-47 (give or take) but Ohio is a point or two closer, let us say 51-49 or so.

So, in that sense Ohio will underperform for the Republicans compared to national totals but the Governor will still pull it out and we will get a minimum 2 point victory in OH

However, I must say, that I feel that we will take IA, WI, NH and CO and thus OH may not be pivotal at all

10 more days and we will find out if I am drinking the Kool Aid or not :-)


36 posted on 10/28/2012 6:00:41 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
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