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Ohio Poll: Romney, Obama Tied Among Likely Voters
Cincinnati Enquirer ^

Posted on 10/27/2012 9:07:48 PM PDT by Arthurio

Ohio Poll: Romney, Obama Tied Among Likely Voters

11:56 PM, Oct 27, 2012 | 0 comments

By JANE PRENDERGAST Cincinnati Enquirer

The race for the White House continues to be too close to call in Ohio, according to a new Cincinnati Enquirer/Ohio News Organization Poll that shows President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney each with 49 percent support from likely voters.

That's a slip for the president, who took 51 percent of likely voters in the newspaper group's September poll.

Romney's support grew among males, among high school and college graduates and among respondents in every age category except 18 to 29.

The two candidates also tied in scaring voters -- 29 percent of poll respondents said they'd be scared if Obama won, and the same amount said they'd be scared if Romney won. Half said they were very enthusiastic about voting, 21 percent said they were not so enthusiastic or not enthusiastic at all.

(Excerpt) Read more at 13wmaz.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Ohio
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; ohio

1 posted on 10/27/2012 9:07:51 PM PDT by Arthurio
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To: Arthurio

In reality, Romney is ahead.

So much for Nate Silver’s plugging in those numbers that postulated the state polls are the ones that really count, we should just dismiss national polls as outliers.

State polls are always lagging indicators and they’re aligning slowly but surely with the national trend.

Silver’s 75% Obama win projection now looks laughable!


2 posted on 10/27/2012 9:12:38 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved FrieGrnd Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: SeekAndFind; LS; Perdogg; napscoordinator; God luvs America; nutmeg; SoFloFreeper; Ravi; ...

Poll Ping.


3 posted on 10/27/2012 9:16:00 PM PDT by Jet Jaguar (The pundits have forgotten the 2010 elections.)
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To: Arthurio

Woo! Romney at 49 in Ohio! :)


4 posted on 10/27/2012 9:16:54 PM PDT by IsaacDian
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To: Arthurio

‘The party breakdown of the randomly selected respondents: 47 percent Democrats, 44 percent Republicans, 10 percent independents. The data were weighted to correct for potential sampling bias on gender and region of residence for respondents.’


5 posted on 10/27/2012 9:18:16 PM PDT by Ken H
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To: Arthurio

The trend is looking good. Obama is trending down while Romney is trending up. In 10 days Romney will be ahead is this poll.


6 posted on 10/27/2012 9:19:37 PM PDT by Parley Baer
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To: Arthurio

These statewide polls with their statistical models and methodology are not reflecting the huge shift toward Romney in Ohio coal company. There is a turn around from 2008 of more than 50,000 votes. This is very significant is a state that may be decided by two or three thousand votes overall.


7 posted on 10/27/2012 9:28:09 PM PDT by allendale
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To: Arthurio

These statewide polls with their statistical models and methodology are not reflecting the huge shift toward Romney in Ohio coal company. There is a turn around from 2008 of more than 50,000 votes. This is very significant is a state that may be decided by two or three thousand votes overall.


8 posted on 10/27/2012 9:28:26 PM PDT by allendale
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To: allendale

Are reflecting or are not reflecting?


9 posted on 10/27/2012 9:30:59 PM PDT by frogjerk (OBAMA NOV 2012 = HORSEMEAT)
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To: Arthurio

Don’t tell Nate Silver, his dream world will come crashing down, thus for all liberals.


10 posted on 10/27/2012 9:31:04 PM PDT by toddausauras (FUBO x 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000)
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To: Ken H

10 percent independents. That’s lower than in other states.


11 posted on 10/27/2012 9:31:17 PM PDT by Jeff Chandler (Soebarkah Soetoro)
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To: frogjerk

Sincerely doubt the poll’s statistical design adequately records the major shift. The original design of the poll would not sample heavily in the coal country since it is not a high population area. Therefore the final poll would miss a big shift in this area.


12 posted on 10/27/2012 9:41:56 PM PDT by allendale
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To: Jeff Chandler

my immediate thought also.. a tied poll where the party number for the Rats is probably too high(I think it will be closer to even) and they under polled Independents .. add that to the big mo being on Romney’s side and I’m liking it


13 posted on 10/27/2012 10:01:03 PM PDT by Lib-Lickers 2
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To: Arthurio

By the end of the week Obama will be at about 10%. The Libya thing is going balistic.

I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the talking head shows tomorrow morning show a whole new vent on this.

It’s over. They know it. Now it’s CYA or else.


14 posted on 10/27/2012 10:03:01 PM PDT by DoughtyOne (You know, if Obama wins he's going to inherit a terrible situation.)
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To: allendale

I don’t know this newpaper but it sounds like a Push-poll based on the questions...They asked about Romney’s ‘47%’ remarks...Did they ask about Barry’s disaster in Libya? His disaster with the economy?

If you’re from Ohio, maybe you can weigh in on the bias of this paper.


15 posted on 10/27/2012 10:04:01 PM PDT by samkatz
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To: samkatz

I’m a Cincinnatian by birth now living a coupla hours away. The Cincinnati Enquirer is the flagship newspaper in the area and has been for a long time. It has always leaned Republican, always endorses Republicans, and has a special place in its heart for Rockefeller Republicans, i.e., it’s a moderate republican newspaper in terms of its endorsements over the years.

Do I have confidence in their poll? Pretty much. They probably want to get it right. The most recent Rasmussen agrees with them, and the poll shows advancement by Romney which is what seems to be happening.

Romney needs to turn Storm Sandy into an economic argument.

“We strongly approve of helping in times of natural disaster or crisis. As always, though, we are BETTER able to help when our economic house is in order than when it isn’t. The same as with the military, we are stronger when our economy is stronger.”


16 posted on 10/28/2012 2:22:02 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True supporters of our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: Arthurio

Make no mistake Soros has his tentacles in all the battleground states to manipulate the voting. He needs to be jailed


17 posted on 10/28/2012 3:44:14 AM PDT by ronnie raygun (bb)
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To: Arthurio

Was Somalia County polled?


18 posted on 10/28/2012 4:49:26 AM PDT by gasport
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To: goldstategop

From talking with the in-laws in Springfield, I get the sense that Romney is really up about 5% in Ohio.


19 posted on 10/28/2012 5:58:51 AM PDT by trebb (Allies no longer trust us. Enemies no longer fear us.)
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To: goldstategop

Who is this Nate Silver I keep hearing about and why is his opinion so important?


20 posted on 10/28/2012 6:18:03 AM PDT by carton253
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To: allendale
"The original design of the poll would not sample heavily in the coal country since it is not a high population area. Therefore the final poll would miss a big shift in this area."

This happened in '04 as well...

21 posted on 10/28/2012 6:29:30 AM PDT by StAnDeliver (2008 + IN, NE1, NC, FL, VA, OH, CO, IA, NH = 285EV)
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To: Arthurio

Coal and Oil voters/workers will not go 0bummer this time...they see their jobs getting destroyed.

We are the crawl over broken glass voters this time.

Romney is up by 5% in Ohio; that is Holder-proof.

Take it to the bank.

Gut feel.


22 posted on 10/28/2012 7:34:08 AM PDT by CincyRichieRich (Keep your head up and keep moving forward!)
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To: Arthurio

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AhTof708DeHWdFJFUm1KSTAzMFZaeGJoal9Ob1EwV0E#gid=0

The numbers do not appear to change much before Election Day. While the total # of voters may shift, the winner in OH will probably win by 2/10-3/10 of a percentage point. Right now I have Romney at 50.11% to 49.89% for Obama among 5.5 million votes cast.


23 posted on 10/28/2012 8:19:06 AM PDT by parksstp
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To: carton253
Nate Silver is a saber-metrics guru that correctly predicted the 2008 election 49 out of 50 states. Sounds unbelievable until you actually understand that there were nowhere as many swing states in 2008 so you can throw 44-45 states out where a monkey could have picked him.

He has now teamed up with the NY Times and is the golden standard of the left.

His whole thing is based on state polls which sounds good but the other problem is that he totally doesn't use Rasmussen or Gallup based on argument that the Rasmussen was off by 5% last time and that Gallup isn't that accurate. Both claims I have investigated and found to be wanting.

24 posted on 10/28/2012 8:30:46 AM PDT by frogjerk (OBAMA NOV 2012 = HORSEMEAT)
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To: frogjerk

Thank you...


25 posted on 10/28/2012 8:44:10 AM PDT by carton253
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To: carton253

[ Who is this Nate Silver I keep hearing about and why is his opinion so important? ]

He’s opinion is not important. He is a left-wing hack and Obamabot.


26 posted on 10/28/2012 8:49:12 AM PDT by KansasGirl ("If you have a business, you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen."--B. Hussein Obama)
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If you agree, please click the "Like"

27 posted on 10/28/2012 9:49:34 AM PDT by RedMDer (https://support.woundedwarriorproject.org/default.aspx?tsid=om93destr)
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To: Ken H

“The data were weighted to correct for potential sampling bias on gender and region of residence for respondents.’”

LOL....yet no attempt to correct for Party imbalance.

We are likely already up 1-2 percent.


28 posted on 10/28/2012 12:54:54 PM PDT by rbmillerjr (Conservative Economic and National Security Commentary: econus.blogspot.com)
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To: frogjerk

Do you know what state he missed?


29 posted on 10/29/2012 7:24:13 AM PDT by lasereye
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To: lasereye

Indiana


30 posted on 10/29/2012 10:05:19 AM PDT by frogjerk (OBAMA NOV 2012 = HORSEMEAT)
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