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Rasmussen Daily: SUN: 10/28: R:50 0:47 Obama -12%
Rasmussen Reports ^ | 10/28/2012 | Rasmussen Reports

Posted on 10/28/2012 6:34:32 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 50% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 47%. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate,...

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(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: election; obama; rasmussen; romney
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Overall, steady as she goes as the Governor leads 50:47

Sadly the President has gained a point. However, this is most probably statistical noise and the oft argued "weekend effect" maybe in play (as some conservatives believe)

However, the approval index is back down to -12

Right Track/Wrong Track is 39/57

Overall approval is 47

Leads with 11 with Independents but is behind NINE (9) with women

Many of these numbers are internals and will not be found in the link above

1 posted on 10/28/2012 6:34:36 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
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To: SoftwareEngineer

Must be a D+6 sample if R leads both Indies and Crossovers and has a +3 lead.

Romney leads Republicans 90-8, Democrats 12-86, and Independents 52-41. Swing state poll has Romney up 50-46.


2 posted on 10/28/2012 6:36:50 AM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: SoftwareEngineer

Not bad for a weekend poll. I like yesterday’s better though! Loved seening O around 46 or 45.
:))


3 posted on 10/28/2012 6:37:02 AM PDT by snarkytart
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To: SoftwareEngineer

This polls disgusts me...he should be at 0% after leaving our men behind in Benghazi.


4 posted on 10/28/2012 6:37:47 AM PDT by Blue Turtle
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To: Arthurio; LS; tatown; nhwingut; Perdogg; Ravi; InterceptPoint; ConservativeGuy; HamiltonJay; ...

Sneak Peek of Swing State Daily: R:50 O:46

The President gained a point there too.

The Governor leads 14 with Independents but is behind 5 with women

The Presidential Approval index is -13%

The overall approval rate is: 48

Right Track/Wrong Track is: 38/58


5 posted on 10/28/2012 6:39:23 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
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To: SoftwareEngineer

I’d love to see the breakdown of wymns vote by age. My sense is it is far higher amongst the young and probably pro Romney above 55 or so. My wife works in an office of 7 wymn aged over 40, the breakdown there is 7 Romney one for Turd, she is a life long demoncrat. Two have shifted from Obama to Romney since last election.


6 posted on 10/28/2012 6:39:43 AM PDT by Mouton (Voting is an opiate of the electorate. Nothing changes no matter who wins..)
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To: SoftwareEngineer
Obamugabe at...wait for it.....47%!

Maybe we oughta make a commercial for that...

7 posted on 10/28/2012 6:39:53 AM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: SoftwareEngineer

This marks the 11th day Romney sits at 50%. O has reached a hard ceiling of 47% which he will not move from in the last week of this election campaign.

The news is good and I don’t expect any dramatic developments until the closing days of this election.


8 posted on 10/28/2012 6:40:19 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved FrieGrnd Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: SoftwareEngineer

Very cool!

Now a question - I don’t have the raw data but just eyeballing the chart, the Romney curve for the past week or so looks like the inverse of the Obama curve, meaning to me that the increase in Romney support is (nearly) all coming at the expense of Obama. In other words, people who previously said they’d vote for Obama have switched to Romney, rather than people who were Undecided.

Is this correct or am I making this up?

Still a lot of Undecideds (2%) that can be converted yet.


9 posted on 10/28/2012 6:41:41 AM PDT by bigbob
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To: Arthurio; LS; tatown; nhwingut; Perdogg; Ravi; InterceptPoint; ConservativeGuy; HamiltonJay; jrg

Perdogg,

NHWingUT did a great job yesterday analyzing the Saturday Rasmussen poll

His finding was that Scott Rasmussen was using D+3

Actually, yesterday, as per the findings of NHWingUT, the Governor was nearly 5 points ahead but the roundings up and down made it 4 points

So, let us see what today’s actual numbers look like


10 posted on 10/28/2012 6:41:50 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
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To: SoftwareEngineer

Romney maintains his 50% number with about a week to go. Obama approval still at 47/52 (-5). The strong index is back up to -12. The strong disapproval holds at 43 – that is not good for an incumbent.

Obama is barely at 47% (46.67 to be exact – see below).

Overall, according to math, Romney lost less than a half a point (50.47 to 50.08). And Obama gained a little more than a half (45.89 to 46.67). No big change.

The sample is D+3 (39/35/25). The pctg of each party id is based on Rasmussen’s crosstabs of each candidate’s support.

10/27
Romney
Republicans 88% * .36 = 31.38
Democrats 11% * .39 = 4.29
Indies 58% * .25 = 14.50
Total = 50.47 (50%)

Obama
Democrats 86% * .39 = 33.54
Republicans 10% * .36 = 3.6
Indies 35% * .25 = 8.75
Total = 45.89 (46%)

10/28
Romney
Repubs 90% * .36 = 32.4
Dems 12% * .39 = 4.68
Indies 52% * .25 =13
Total = 50.08 (50%)

Obama
Dems 86% * .39 = 33.54
Repubs 8% * .36 = 2.88
Indies 25% * .25 = 10.25
Total = 46.67 (47%)


11 posted on 10/28/2012 6:43:04 AM PDT by nhwingut (Single Issue Voter: Obama Must Go!)
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To: Blue Turtle

The media isn’t harping on it and now forget it; it’s all SANDY SANDY SANDY. They have what they need to take any scandal off the front pages. Even though it wasn’t there in the first place.


12 posted on 10/28/2012 6:45:07 AM PDT by snarkytart
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To: goldstategop

Well, remember there will be a doctored unemployment rate released by the Ministry of Labor Disinformation at the end of the week. Romney needs to build a better cushion by Friday.


13 posted on 10/28/2012 6:45:29 AM PDT by BlueStateRightist
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To: SoFloFreeper

That is just how good Romney is with numbers............


14 posted on 10/28/2012 6:46:10 AM PDT by Toespi
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To: SeekAndFind; LS; Perdogg; napscoordinator; God luvs America; nutmeg; SoFloFreeper; Ravi; ...

WaPo tracking poll (through Friday) has Romney up 1, 49-48. Romney leads indys by 16 and on economy by 7. Sample moved from D+4 to D+6.

Things go well with zogbysauce


15 posted on 10/28/2012 6:46:54 AM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: Blue Turtle

i know what you mean.

He could have a gun in his hands spattered blood on him, a video showing he murdered them himself and confess to it AND still have 45% of the vote...


16 posted on 10/28/2012 6:48:07 AM PDT by zwerni (this isn't gonna be good for business)
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To: Mouton
I don't have the breakdown of women by age, but here is the age breakdown of the total poll sample

With Leaners	Men	Women	18-29	30-39	40-49	50-64	65+
Romney		57%	44%	35%	35%	57%	59%	58% 
Obama		40%	53%	63%	62%	42%	37%	39% 

17 posted on 10/28/2012 6:49:06 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
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To: SoftwareEngineer

Here is Scott’s commentary from today:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll


18 posted on 10/28/2012 6:50:11 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
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To: BlueStateRightist

Those who have heard of Benghazi should have no trouble now with the idea this administration would cook the BLS books and so over-rigging may backfire on them.


19 posted on 10/28/2012 6:50:41 AM PDT by John W (Viva Cristo Rey!)
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To: Blue Turtle

You have to take into account that three-fourths of Americans probably have no idea what actually happened in Benghazi.


20 posted on 10/28/2012 6:51:39 AM PDT by Eric Pode of Croydon
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To: nhwingut

Thanks, that kinda answers my question - and poses new ones.

On one hand, who really thinks Romney lost 6% of Independents overnight?

On the other, I’d like to believe that Obama’s support amongst Independents dropped 10% overnight, but where did it go? Back to “Undecided” I guess, since Romney’s numbers didn’t go up proportionally.

I think I’ll leave poll-analysis to your guys!


21 posted on 10/28/2012 6:52:39 AM PDT by bigbob
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To: SoftwareEngineer

An Endorsement: America Needs Mitt Romney in Oval Office

The News & Advance is located at 101 Wyndale Drive, Lynchburg, Va. 24501.

http://www2.newsadvance.com/news/2012/oct/28/endorsement-america-needs-mitt-romney-oval-office-ar-2314480/


22 posted on 10/28/2012 6:53:38 AM PDT by KeyLargo
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To: Perdogg

Obama stuck at 47%?

Where did I see that number 47 before.... sounds familiar /s


23 posted on 10/28/2012 6:54:31 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SoftwareEngineer

That seems to allude to my thesis. I guess the under 40 crowd has not been battered enough yet or their drug saturated minds are to whithered to note they have no future with this asshat in office.

The only good news, is older people tend to vote!


24 posted on 10/28/2012 6:55:14 AM PDT by Mouton (Voting is an opiate of the electorate. Nothing changes no matter who wins..)
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To: Eric Pode of Croydon

Bengazi? Isn’t that the football team in Cincinnati?


25 posted on 10/28/2012 6:55:31 AM PDT by MaxMax
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To: SeekAndFind

And barely at 47% (46.67). If he drops a tenth of a point today, he’s back down to 46%.


26 posted on 10/28/2012 6:56:27 AM PDT by nhwingut (Single Issue Voter: Obama Must Go!)
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To: nhwingut

Something looks odd:
10/27 Obama
Indies 35% * .25 = 8.75
Total = 45.89 (46%)

10/28 Obama

Indies 25% * .25 = 10.25
Total = 46.67 (47%)

35% = 8.75 but then 25% = 10.25. Did the sample size change? The other figures did not change. Just looks odd.


27 posted on 10/28/2012 7:11:45 AM PDT by jafojeffsurf (Return to the Constitution)
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To: jafojeffsurf

That was a typo. Its 41% (indie support) x .25 for 10.25. The math does not change. I do it in excel then type into FR. My data input error.


28 posted on 10/28/2012 7:14:30 AM PDT by nhwingut (Single Issue Voter: Obama Must Go!)
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To: nhwingut

Thanks figure it was something like that.


29 posted on 10/28/2012 7:16:07 AM PDT by jafojeffsurf (Return to the Constitution)
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To: SoftwareEngineer

How funny would it be if Obama lost w 47% of the vote?


30 posted on 10/28/2012 7:18:36 AM PDT by GlockThe Vote (The Obama Adminstration: 2nd wave of attacks on America after 9/11)
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To: bigbob

See my post above. The Indie support for Obama today is 41% (not 25%), hence 41% * .25 = 10.25. The result does not change.

It was my transfer/typing from Excel to FR. I had 25% on mind (as that’s the multiplier). Sorry for the confusion.

Here is is again, edited.

10/27
Romney
Republicans 88% * .36 = 31.38
Democrats 11% * .39 = 4.29
Indies 58% * .25 = 14.50
Total = 50.47 (rounded down to 50%, but so close to 51%)

Obama
Democrats 86% * .39 = 33.54
Republicans 10% * .36 = 3.6
Indies 35% * .25 = 8.75
Total = 45.89 (rounded up to 46%)

10/28
Romney
Repubs 90% * .36 = 32.4
Dems 12% * .39 = 4.68
Indies 52% * .25 =13
Total = 50.08

Obama
Dems 86% * .39 = 33.54
Repubs 8% * .36 = 2.88
Indies 41% * .25 = 10.25
Total = 46.67


31 posted on 10/28/2012 7:20:14 AM PDT by nhwingut (Single Issue Voter: Obama Must Go!)
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To: nhwingut; Arthurio; LS; Ravi; tatown; InterceptPoint; Perdogg; ConservativeGuy; HamiltonJay; jrg; ..

NHWingUT,

Just superb analysis from you! Simply superb, the breakdown you give on Rasmussen

Again, I do believe Scott is an honorable guy and as the President of Rasmussen Reports and a well respected analyst, he is fully entitled to his (well earned) opinion about the D+3 sample

However, by providing us with these internals, you allow those of us that think the election will be D+1 at best, to better formulate our numbers

Keep up the good work for the next 9 days. We are counting on you!

God Bless!


32 posted on 10/28/2012 7:24:16 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
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To: Chickenshit Barry


33 posted on 10/28/2012 7:25:27 AM PDT by devolve ( ---- ---- ---- -CHEESEBURGER_CHEESEBURGER_CHEESEBURGER- ---- ---- ---- ---- John Belusi ---- ----)
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To: Mouton

I read a lot of politics but don’t know what,”wymn”, means. I think I saw it once,but don’t remember the details.


34 posted on 10/28/2012 7:28:03 AM PDT by StandAndDeliver1
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To: nhwingut; Arthurio; LS; Ravi; tatown; InterceptPoint; Perdogg; ConservativeGuy; HamiltonJay; jrg; ..

NHWingUT,

Just moving the above sample from D+3 to D+1 changes the totals for today (based on your calculations) to:

R: 50.88
O: 45.77

51-46

This assumes a R/D/I sample of 36/37/27


35 posted on 10/28/2012 7:30:46 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
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To: SoftwareEngineer

Approval index gets worse for Obama, he goes up in poll. Obama’s approval gets better for him and he loses an overall point or two.

Funny. Yet I trust Rass.


36 posted on 10/28/2012 7:33:47 AM PDT by Jake8898
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To: nhwingut

Thanks for the explanation - great work!

(Hey, at least you know we’re reading your posts!)


37 posted on 10/28/2012 7:35:32 AM PDT by bigbob
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To: SoftwareEngineer

All stays the same, the final score likely to be 52-47 (1% other). Benghazi story gets any real legs and it will go to 54-45. 45% is the Marxist’s floor. Unemployment report on Friday will have an unpredictable effect.


38 posted on 10/28/2012 7:37:12 AM PDT by BlueStateRightist
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To: StandAndDeliver1

Misspelled: Womyn, the lefty way of saying women.


39 posted on 10/28/2012 7:50:24 AM PDT by Mouton (Voting is an opiate of the electorate. Nothing changes no matter who wins..)
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To: BlueStateRightist
"Well, remember there will be a doctored unemployment rate released by the Ministry of Labor Disinformation at the end of the week. Romney needs to build a better cushion by Friday."

Hi noob! Everyone knows someone who is unemployed. That hasn't happened since...Carter. < / argument >

40 posted on 10/28/2012 8:03:13 AM PDT by StAnDeliver (2008 + IN, NE1, NC, FL, VA, OH, CO, IA, NH = 285EV)
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To: Jake8898
"Approval index gets worse for Obama, he goes up in poll. Obama’s approval gets better for him and he loses an overall point or two."

Could have been substantially less than 1 point, ie, 46.9 -> 47.1

41 posted on 10/28/2012 8:08:16 AM PDT by StAnDeliver (2008 + IN, NE1, NC, FL, VA, OH, CO, IA, NH = 285EV)
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To: SoftwareEngineer; Arthurio; LS; Ravi; tatown; InterceptPoint; Perdogg; ConservativeGuy; ...
I plugged in today's Rasmussen's crosstabs (Romney 90R/12D/52I; Obama 86D/8R/41I) with Gallup's recently released party id/electorate survey which was D35/R36/I29.

Gallup Party id survey here

Result: Romney 52 Obama 45

Romney
Repubs 90% * .36 = 32.4
Dems 12% * .35 = 4.2
Indies 52% * .29 = 15.08
Total = 51.68 (52%)


Obama
Dems 86% * .35 = 30.1
Repubs 8% * .36 = 2.8
Indies 41% * .29 = 11.89
Total = 44.79 (45%)
42 posted on 10/28/2012 8:42:51 AM PDT by nhwingut (Single Issue Voter: Obama Must Go!)
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To: BlueStateRightist

So, do you think the massive increase in govt. spending last quarter has anything to do with the massive increase in the number of PT workers ? Between the Obama campaign and our tax dollars you gotta wonder how many PT positions they can make up and fill, at least through Oct. 6.


43 posted on 10/28/2012 8:52:43 AM PDT by Bigjimslade
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To: SoftwareEngineer
The campaign is practically over. Our focus now needs to switch to GOTV, especially as early voting (which I detest) is now going strong in many states.

I feel that Romney is in strong position to win this thing but the Obama people are pulling out all the stops and bringing people to the voting booths in busloads. By November 6th, they will have plied every homeless derelict off the streets with a bottle of schnapps and have gotten them to at least one polling place.

There will be all-out efforts by the Dems to steal this thing in the major cities of PA, OH, MI and FL. Everybody on our side needs to get out there and vote on November 6. I urge everybody to not fall for the "early voting" scam. If you vote early, there is a good chance your vote will be changed to Obama. I don't trust early voting at all. Show up on Election Day and cause traffic jams like we did on Chic-Fil-A appreciation day.

44 posted on 10/28/2012 8:53:11 AM PDT by SamAdams76
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To: nhwingut

C’mon. Does anybody really believe that Romney is going to get only 88-90% of the GOP vote? Historically it’s has been 94-95% of GOP base. However, Obama is beginning to have a base problem with 11-12% of Dem vote going to Romney. This should up the Romney lead another 2.0-2.5 pts.


45 posted on 10/28/2012 9:14:26 AM PDT by princeofdarkness ( Nobama. No more. No way. November 2012.)
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Make it happen.
Support Free Republic


Blue State or Red State or somewhere in between,
We must Vote and rid us of the Marxist and send a very big message to not try that again in
The USA!

46 posted on 10/28/2012 9:56:25 AM PDT by RedMDer (https://support.woundedwarriorproject.org/default.aspx?tsid=om93destr)
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To: princeofdarkness

Agreed. If Romney can get the base support up to even 93% (which is the historical base number for Repubs - even McCain got 93% as did Bush in 2004), that’s an extra point overall.


47 posted on 10/28/2012 9:58:11 AM PDT by nhwingut (Single Issue Voter: Obama Must Go!)
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To: nhwingut

Can you run this analysis for the OH Ras poll?


48 posted on 10/28/2012 10:27:28 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: SoftwareEngineer

I don’t like to see Fauxcohantas up 5 over Brown in Mass.


49 posted on 10/28/2012 12:00:44 PM PDT by Inwoodian
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To: jafojeffsurf

This is a Sunday poll? Taken today? IT seems that more Republicans go to church than Democrats, so they wouldn’t be available to answer a survey. On the other hand, most are not answering their phones to be polled. I know I’m not.


50 posted on 10/28/2012 4:06:51 PM PDT by Catsrus (Ma)
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