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To: bigbob

See my post above. The Indie support for Obama today is 41% (not 25%), hence 41% * .25 = 10.25. The result does not change.

It was my transfer/typing from Excel to FR. I had 25% on mind (as that’s the multiplier). Sorry for the confusion.

Here is is again, edited.

10/27
Romney
Republicans 88% * .36 = 31.38
Democrats 11% * .39 = 4.29
Indies 58% * .25 = 14.50
Total = 50.47 (rounded down to 50%, but so close to 51%)

Obama
Democrats 86% * .39 = 33.54
Republicans 10% * .36 = 3.6
Indies 35% * .25 = 8.75
Total = 45.89 (rounded up to 46%)

10/28
Romney
Repubs 90% * .36 = 32.4
Dems 12% * .39 = 4.68
Indies 52% * .25 =13
Total = 50.08

Obama
Dems 86% * .39 = 33.54
Repubs 8% * .36 = 2.88
Indies 41% * .25 = 10.25
Total = 46.67

31 posted on 10/28/2012 7:20:14 AM PDT by nhwingut (Single Issue Voter: Obama Must Go!)

To: nhwingut; Arthurio; LS; Ravi; tatown; InterceptPoint; Perdogg; ConservativeGuy; HamiltonJay; jrg; ..

NHWingUT,

Just moving the above sample from D+3 to D+1 changes the totals for today (based on your calculations) to:

R: 50.88
O: 45.77

51-46

This assumes a R/D/I sample of 36/37/27

35 posted on 10/28/2012 7:30:46 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer

To: nhwingut

Thanks for the explanation - great work!

37 posted on 10/28/2012 7:35:32 AM PDT by bigbob

To: nhwingut

C’mon. Does anybody really believe that Romney is going to get only 88-90% of the GOP vote? Historically it’s has been 94-95% of GOP base. However, Obama is beginning to have a base problem with 11-12% of Dem vote going to Romney. This should up the Romney lead another 2.0-2.5 pts.

45 posted on 10/28/2012 9:14:26 AM PDT by princeofdarkness ( Nobama. No more. No way. November 2012.)

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