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GALLUP: R 50%, O 46%
http://www.gallup.com/poll/157817/election-2012-likely-voters-trial-heat-obama-romney.aspx ^

Posted on 10/28/2012 10:15:03 AM PDT by MeanGreen2008

Romney drops a point; Obama still at 46

(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; gallup; notbreakingnews; sourcetitlenoturl

1 posted on 10/28/2012 10:15:06 AM PDT by MeanGreen2008
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To: MeanGreen2008

Oh nose!


2 posted on 10/28/2012 10:17:54 AM PDT by Jeff Chandler (Soebarkah Soetoro)
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To: MeanGreen2008

Steady as she goes.


3 posted on 10/28/2012 10:18:48 AM PDT by John W (Viva Cristo Rey!)
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To: MeanGreen2008

O sitting at 46 - Romney’s lead at 50% is stable for an 11th straight day.


4 posted on 10/28/2012 10:19:02 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved FrieGrnd Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: MeanGreen2008

That would be 13 days in a row for Romney at 50 (or above) in Gallup. And 6 straight (at 50) in Rasmussen.

That is what a winner looks like.

PS - An incumbent, with 8 days (after today) to go before election day, at 46 is in HUGE trouble.


5 posted on 10/28/2012 10:19:20 AM PDT by nhwingut (Single Issue Voter: Obama Must Go!)
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To: MeanGreen2008

Wonder whether the weekend poll may account for the point drop?
Today’s WaPo shows Obama has a 4-point lead in Virginia. This goes against what we thought was Mittmomentum. Monday/Tuesday will give us a better picture.


6 posted on 10/28/2012 10:20:32 AM PDT by Steelfish (ui)
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To: MeanGreen2008
Keep walking...


7 posted on 10/28/2012 10:22:48 AM PDT by COBOL2Java (I'm not voting for Obama, so therefore I must be helping Romney!)
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To: Steelfish

The VA poll was a D+8. You can hang on to that all you want.

VA is an R+2 (minimum) state.

In short, Obama is at 46% in the national poll with 8 days left.

Good luck with that. You guys can spin all you want about state polls. It’s all you got left.

If Romney wins 51-47 (or so) it’s a landslide.


8 posted on 10/28/2012 10:23:14 AM PDT by nhwingut (Single Issue Voter: Obama Must Go!)
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To: Steelfish

“Wonder whether the weekend poll may account for the point drop?”

It’s called the weekend, and statistical noise.

“Today’s WaPo shows Obama has a 4-point lead in Virginia. This goes against what we thought was Mittmomentum. Monday/Tuesday will give us a better picture.”

LOL.

I love when thee posters show up on the weekend.

Oooooooh! Here comes the concern express!


9 posted on 10/28/2012 10:23:25 AM PDT by VanDeKoik
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To: Steelfish

Concern Troll.

The WashCompost numbers are garbage.

No one outside of them thinks Obama will win in VA. Its reverting to its historical voting pattern.


10 posted on 10/28/2012 10:26:55 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved FrieGrnd Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: goldstategop
Concern Troll.

Yep.
11 posted on 10/28/2012 10:30:10 AM PDT by nhwingut (Single Issue Voter: Obama Must Go!)
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To: MeanGreen2008

             

12 posted on 10/28/2012 10:30:56 AM PDT by tomkat
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To: MeanGreen2008

Forget the polls, look at what Obama is doing. His campaign actions will tell you that he is worried.


13 posted on 10/28/2012 10:32:54 AM PDT by driftdiver (I could eat it raw, but why do that when I have a fire.)
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Tired of this?
Support Free Republic


Blue State or Red State or somewhere in between,
We must Vote and rid us of the Marxist and send a very big message to not try that again in
The USA!

14 posted on 10/28/2012 10:32:56 AM PDT by RedMDer (https://support.woundedwarriorproject.org/default.aspx?tsid=om93destr)
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To: MeanGreen2008
Had these Gallup numbers been reversed for the past 13 days, this entire Free Republic forum would be under suicide watch and people would be throwing up their hands in despair saying "all is lost."

I like the position we are in. So long as our side GOTV, we will have the Obamas packing their bags for an extra-long vacation with plenty of golf and ice-cream cones to lick.

BTW, four years ago, Gallup had McCain closing to within two points of Obama at this point in time. So fear not if this poll tightens up a little more over the next few days. So long as Romney remains at 50% or higher, there is no way for Obama to pull this out.

15 posted on 10/28/2012 10:37:08 AM PDT by SamAdams76
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To: MeanGreen2008

With Romney at 50 to 51% that could be a variation as small as 50.49 and 50.51%.

Same with Obama. It could be as small a variation as 45.49% and 45.51%.


16 posted on 10/28/2012 10:46:04 AM PDT by Parley Baer
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To: goldstategop

yep. poor steelfish scouring the poll world for something to hang his hat on, right? surprised he hasn’t already made a thread about the washington post poll showing O ahead in VA.
wait for it.........


17 posted on 10/28/2012 10:46:58 AM PDT by snarkytart
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To: SamAdams76
Had these Gallup numbers been reversed for the past 13 days, this entire Free Republic forum would be under suicide watch and people would be throwing up their hands in despair saying "all is lost."

Exactly. And it's why the media is a joke. If the roles were reversed they'd have called the race already (because they know it's statistically impossible to win by 4 nationally and lose the EV). Instead now all we here about is how Obama will win by taking the EV. Right!
18 posted on 10/28/2012 10:47:02 AM PDT by nhwingut (Single Issue Voter: Obama Must Go!)
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To: goldstategop

I think Zero will dip to 45. The Benghazi story will take a while to resonate and settle with some voters due to the major networks’ hesitancy to cover it. The Internet is, however, so I see a further down-tick for 0bama. This, barring some sort of as yet ‘0ctember surprise’ coming from the media or 0bama on Romney. I’m sure they’re digging deep now.


19 posted on 10/28/2012 10:47:45 AM PDT by Obama_Is_Sabotaging_America
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To: Obama_Is_Sabotaging_America
"I think Zero will dip to 45." I would like to believe that, but there are just too many people in this country who love/like the man. Sad. I'm hoping for 52-47 Romney at this point.
20 posted on 10/28/2012 11:45:24 AM PDT by CatOwner
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To: COBOL2Java

Picture of the week!


21 posted on 10/28/2012 11:49:22 AM PDT by PghBaldy
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To: CatOwner
I would like to believe that [55-45], but there are just too many people in this country who love/like the man. Sad. I'm hoping for 52-47 Romney at this point.

The moment it becomes apparent Obama will not win, the bottom will drop out.

Obama's base is composed of low-propensity voters -- youth, minorities, etc. Once it is apparent that it's a lost cause -- probably late next week -- some will switch, millions won't bother. It will go from 52-47 to 57-42 overnight. And, on election day, even worse.

22 posted on 10/28/2012 11:58:28 AM PDT by okie01 (THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA; Ignorance on parade.)
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To: MeanGreen2008
Last week of October Polls for Comparison Sake. Actual Results were Obama+7.

Gallup 10/31 - 11/2 2472 LV 2.0 55 44 Obama +11
Diageo/Hotline 10/31 - 11/2 887 LV 3.3 50 45 Obama +5
CBS News 10/31 - 11/2 714 LV -- 51 42 Obama +9
Ipsos/McClatchy 10/30 - 11/2 760 LV 3.6 53 46 Obama +7
ABC News/Wash Post 10/30 - 11/2 2470 LV 2.5 53 44 Obama +9
CNN/Opinion Research 10/30 - 11/1 714 LV 3.5 53 46 Obama +7
Pew Research 10/29 - 11/1 2587 LV 2.0 52 46 Obama +6
GWU/Battleground 10/29 - 11/2 800 LV 3.5 50 44 Obama +6
Gallup (Traditional)* 10/30 - 11/1 2503 LV 2.0 51 43 Obama +8
Gallup (Expanded)* 10/30 - 11/1 2475 LV 2.0 52 43 Obama +9
Marist 10/29 - 10/29 543 LV 4.5 50 43 Obama +7
FOX News 10/28 - 10/29 924 LV 3.0 47 44 Obama +3
CBS News/NY Times 10/25 - 10/29 1005 LV -- 52 41 Obama +11
Ipsos/McClatchy 10/23 - 10/27 831 LV 3.4 50 45 Obama +5
Rasmussen Reports 10/24 - 10/26 3000 LV 2.0 51 46 Obama +5
Gallup (Traditional)* 10/24 - 10/26 2446 LV 2.0 50 45 Obama +5
Gallup (Expanded)* 10/24 - 10/26 2343 LV 2.0 53 43 Obama +10

For 2004, Actual Results were Bush+2.5

Marist 11/1 - 11/1 -- 49 50 Kerry +1
GW/Battleground 10/31 - 11/1 -- 50 46 Bush +4
IBD/TIPP 10/30 - 11/1 -- 50.1 48 Bush +2.1
CBS News 10/29 - 11/1 -- 49 47 Bush +2
Harris 10/29 - 11/1 -- 49 48 Bush +1
FOX News 10/30 - 10/31 -- 46 48 Kerry +2
Reuters/Zogby 10/29 - 10/31 -- 48 47 Bush +1
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 10/29 - 10/31 -- 49 49 Tie
NBC/WSJ 10/29 - 10/31 -- 48 47 Bush +1
ABC/Wash Post 10/28 - 10/31 -- 49 48 Bush +1
ARG 10/28 - 10/30 -- 48 48 Tie
CBS News/NY Times 10/28 - 10/30 -- 49 46 Bush +3
Pew Research 10/27 - 10/30 -- 51 48 Bush +3
Newsweek 10/27 - 10/29 -- 50 44 Bush +6

23 posted on 10/28/2012 11:59:54 AM PDT by Darren McCarty (Holding my nose one more time to get rid of Eric Holder)
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To: Steelfish

Concern trolling again....so cool.


24 posted on 10/28/2012 12:04:01 PM PDT by Lady Heron
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To: Steelfish

Washington Post also has Kaine up by 7. As a Virginian, I can tell you with 100% certainty that is BS. Virginia might well turn out to be a close race, but 0bama is not up 4 and Kaine is not up 7.


25 posted on 10/28/2012 12:05:02 PM PDT by wolfman23601
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To: Steelfish

If you poll VA using a D+25 sample, you’ll see hussein winning by an unprecedented landslide!

The wapo internals are baloney based on the last Presidential election. It’s about as biased in favor of hussein as they can make it and retain a somewhat straight face.

Virginia will be interesting to watch but it’s going to go Romney. As will the rest of the south.


26 posted on 10/28/2012 12:05:43 PM PDT by RKBA Democrat (Leftists are the small hive beetles of the American hive)
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To: wolfman23601

You are correct and like everywhere else in the battleground states a lot will hinge on who has the better ground game. The Rats are busing to the polls anyone and everyone they could find who will vote their way.


27 posted on 10/28/2012 12:07:18 PM PDT by Steelfish (ui)
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To: SamAdams76
FoxNews was the only pollster to have McCain down less than 5 at this point.

I'm still nervous, although I always am election time. What bothers me is the disconnect between state and national polls. I highly doubt both of them are right. Ohio isn't more leftist than the country, despite its local issues. The question is which polls are wrong. State or national. If it's state, we're in good shape. If it's national, we're in trouble.

I already voted and I'm going to be one of those evil vote suppressors on election day. Dead people can't vote. People can't vote in two different precincts. Nor can people go to the polls and pretend to be someone else.

28 posted on 10/28/2012 12:07:29 PM PDT by Darren McCarty (Holding my nose one more time to get rid of Eric Holder)
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To: wolfman23601

It’s probably an even split between R and D right now in VA. Which means Romney up a few points and Allen and the eyebrows essentially tied.


29 posted on 10/28/2012 12:09:18 PM PDT by RKBA Democrat (Leftists are the small hive beetles of the American hive)
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To: MeanGreen2008

Romney at 50% in Gallup and Rasmussen. With the undecideds likely to either not vote or vote for Romney (the challenger), things are looking very good for Election Night.


30 posted on 10/28/2012 12:10:16 PM PDT by Repeal 16-17 (Let me know when the Shooting starts.)
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To: Steelfish
The Rats are busing to the polls anyone and everyone they could find who will vote their way.

Like they do every election.

31 posted on 10/28/2012 12:14:34 PM PDT by Darren McCarty (Holding my nose one more time to get rid of Eric Holder)
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To: Darren McCarty
FoxNews was the only pollster to have McCain down less than 5 at this point.

Not sure about FoxNews but Gallup had McCain within two points of Obama just a week before the election. Others here have been posting a comparison spreadsheet that points that out.

I think the nationals are pretty accurate with respect to Gallup and Rasmussen - this is their bread and butter, and in the case of Gallup, they've been doing this since 1936 with good success.

So I feel comfortable that Romney is up 3-5 points nationally at this point, which should be enough to yield a solid electoral win. Even better, the challenger usually gets a surge at the end, so a 4-7 point Romney win is definitely in the cards - that would be an electoral landslide and likely bring PA, MI, WI, IA, CO and NH into the GOP column. I think FL, VA, NC and OH are in the bag for Romney. Yes, I think OH is going to come through, otherwise the Romney campaign would be spending much of their time there as that state is so crucial to the electoral calculus needed for a Romney victory.

32 posted on 10/28/2012 12:44:27 PM PDT by SamAdams76
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To: SamAdams76
Agreed.

I think Romney finishes at 52%.

33 posted on 10/28/2012 1:02:16 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: Steelfish
Obama has no lead in Vir.

It is going GOP.

34 posted on 10/28/2012 1:04:05 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: SamAdams76

No. If these numbers were reversed, FR would be full of people saying how full of crap the polls are. Just like now, for example. They love Gallup and Rasmussen but don’t believe the Ohio polls or Virginia or all the other polls that show Romney STILL doesn’t have the EV he needs.

Check the archive here from 2008. McCain was surging and on election day the media would be eating crow. You can mock people here who are concerned all you want but we have the numbers on our side.


35 posted on 10/28/2012 1:11:53 PM PDT by paul544
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To: Lady Heron

Will you remember this post come November 7? Only if we win. Otherwise: excuses, excuses.


36 posted on 10/28/2012 1:16:20 PM PDT by Revolting cat! (Bad things are wrong! Ice cream is delicious!)
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To: paul544

You have shit on your side when it comes to VA. MOST of the polls show Romney ahead in VA. So what now?


37 posted on 10/28/2012 1:36:35 PM PDT by snarkytart
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To: paul544

Oh and Ras has them tied in OH now too. Go be “concerned” somewhere else.


38 posted on 10/28/2012 1:38:47 PM PDT by snarkytart
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To: paul544

It’s good to see the sleeping cell trolls blow themselves up when all is lost!

Would you rather have your boy Obama up in Gallup and Rasmussen by 3-4 (for 2 straight weeks) or hanging on to a a wacky theory that he can win the EV by losing the national vote by 4 (which has never happened in history).

LOL!


39 posted on 10/28/2012 2:00:17 PM PDT by nhwingut (Single Issue Voter: Obama Must Go!)
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To: CatOwner

“I’m hoping for 52-47 Romney at this point. “

I have been predicting that result for a few months now,
and I am praying that I’m right.

Given the huge level of media bias, koolaid drinking from liberals about Obama, and the ‘47%’ factor, it’s the best we can do IMHO.


40 posted on 10/28/2012 3:06:39 PM PDT by WOSG (REPEAL AND REPLACE OBAMA. He stole America’s promise!)
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To: snarkytart

No. I’ll stay right here and piss in your Cheerios.


41 posted on 10/28/2012 3:52:29 PM PDT by paul544
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To: paul544

You’re not pissing in anything. You’re the miserable one. I’m sure you’ll be here celebrating when R&R win right?


42 posted on 10/28/2012 3:58:58 PM PDT by snarkytart
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To: Revolting cat!
LOL! Sure I will remember. No excuses either, I will admit to being wrong.

The reality is that polls are impossible until the last week. They only tell the truth if dems are winning since I have been watching them Reagan/Carter. If republicans are winning then they always show it neck and neck until their last poll then we get truth. If dems are winning it is being screamed from the rooftops.

The one thing I know for sure is that this race is either neck and neck(rep. win most likely) or republicans are winning huge....dems are not winning or the polls and the media would be screaming that fact.

43 posted on 10/28/2012 4:08:49 PM PDT by Lady Heron
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To: paul544

Did you notice that on today’s talking head shows that only Fox allowed discussion of Benghazi? The mainstream moderators kept directing the story back to polls.


44 posted on 10/28/2012 5:59:50 PM PDT by Mamzelle
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To: Jeff Chandler

Ok, I still have a bad feeling Obama is going to steal this election


45 posted on 10/28/2012 8:48:44 PM PDT by lookout88 (.combat officer's dad)
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To: MeanGreen2008
You all know that Obama is going to take full advantage of the storm hitting the East Coast. I am sure he has done everything to make sure that every agency, every entity is ready and will respond perfectly to the needs. Of course we wouldn't want otherwise...people's lives and livelihood are at stake.

However, you all also know that Obama will be credited for everything good that happens, everything that works well, etc. It will be a feather in his cap according to the Lib media...so be prepared. Obama is going to use the storm for his campaign and may of his supporters will flock around saying "What a great guy...he saved the East Coast, he can do anything!"

46 posted on 10/28/2012 9:24:10 PM PDT by CitizenM (Obama - The architect of the decline of the U.S.)
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To: MeanGreen2008

Moochelle and Chris Matthews in unison (after the riots start when Romney wins by a landslide) “why can’t we all just get along?”.


47 posted on 10/29/2012 12:03:04 AM PDT by The Fop (Excuse me while I clean the saliva out of my racist dog whistle)
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To: CatOwner

“I would like to believe that, but there are just too many people in this country who love/like the man.”

The crowds he is drawing, and the lack of signs/bumper stickers in an area that was inundated with them four years ago, indicate that the popularity is a media myth; I work with blacks that have had enough of Obama...


48 posted on 10/29/2012 4:36:58 AM PDT by kearnyirish2 (Affirmative action is economic war against white males (and therefore white families).)
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