Washington Post also has Kaine up by 7. As a Virginian, I can tell you with 100% certainty that is BS. Virginia might well turn out to be a close race, but 0bama is not up 4 and Kaine is not up 7.
You are correct and like everywhere else in the battleground states a lot will hinge on who has the better ground game. The Rats are busing to the polls anyone and everyone they could find who will vote their way.
It’s probably an even split between R and D right now in VA. Which means Romney up a few points and Allen and the eyebrows essentially tied.