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Virtual tie in Minnesota?
Hotair ^ | 10/28/2012 | Ed Morrissey

Posted on 10/28/2012 10:21:36 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

I'd be the first to tell people that my state is a quadrennial sucker bet for Republicans. In 2008, no one thought we had a prayer, but in 2000 and 2004, Republicans actually thought they had a chance to break the Democrats' presidential winning streak, as the state last went to the GOP in 1972. I've been hearing Republicans get optimistic here again, but I've been highly skeptical of the prospects for Mitt Romney to even get close here.

Until now:

As the presidential race tightens across the country, a new Star Tribune Minnesota Poll has found that it is narrowing here as well, with President Obama holding a 3-point lead and Republican Mitt Romney making gains in the state.

The poll shows Obama with support from 47 percent of likely voters and Romney earning backing from 44 percent — a lead within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Last month, Obama had an 8-percentage point advantage in the Minnesota Poll. Romney has apparently cut into the Democrat’s advantage among women since then and picked up support from Minnesotans who were previously undecided or said they would vote for a third-party candidate.

Independents, on the other hand, are leaning more toward Obama. Barely a third supported him last month, but that number has grown to 43 percent. Romney’s support among independents remains virtually unchanged, with 13 percent of that group remaining undecided.

Bear in mind that this is the Star Tribune’s Minnesota Poll, which has a long and (un)glorious history of leftward tilt. Mitch Berg has long documented this trend. One has to wonder whether we’ll need to send paramedics to his house this morning after he reads Rachel Stassen=Berger’s report from the survey.

Snark aside, this looks like a relatively solid poll. The sample is D+5, with a D/R/I of 38/33/29. In 2008 when Obama won by 10 points, it was D+4 at 40/36/22, and I suspect that Republicans are going to be more motivated this time around. Obama wins the core counties in the Twin Cities, but only by a relatively weak 57/35. Romney wins the Metro suburbs with a majority 51/39 and edges Obama 46/44 in the rest of the state.

In 2008, Obama had a 19-point edge in the gender gap, +3 among men and +16 among women. This time, Obama has only a +1 — he’s up 14 among women but down 13 among men. Obama still leads by 6 among independents, which he won by 17 points in 2008, but he’s only got 43%. Late breakers are not likely to flow to the incumbent at this stage of the election; if the were inclined to support Obama, they’d already be in his corner now.

That’s true of the overall number as well. If Obama can only get to 47% in the Star Tribune poll with nine days left to go before the election in Minnesota, which has gone Democrat every presidential election over the last four years, this state is in play — and that’s why both campaigns are suddenly starting to spend money here.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Front Page News; Politics/Elections; US: Minnesota
KEYWORDS: minnesota; obama; poll; romney

1 posted on 10/28/2012 10:21:38 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

Mn Democrats have a large contigent of Blue Collar Democrats. A lot of them have never liked Obama but have stuck with the party out of habit. It maybe MN is indicative of a lot of Blue Collar Mid West Dems. These are the same people who made up the Reagan Democrats in 1980.


2 posted on 10/28/2012 10:24:01 AM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: SeekAndFind
(Obama's America) "Vote for me, I'll give you everything you need & no work required."
3 posted on 10/28/2012 10:25:24 AM PDT by yoe (Vote for the Real American whose love for his country was NEVER in question.)
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To: SeekAndFind

For Minnesota voters. Hey, ya wanna vote for a liar and a coward with blood on his hands?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gf8lHz_7R_Y


4 posted on 10/28/2012 10:29:54 AM PDT by ExTexasRedhead
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To: SeekAndFind
If they are statistically tied in Minnesota, Ohio shouldn't be any problem for Gov. Romney.
5 posted on 10/28/2012 10:33:06 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Virtual tie in MN? Uh-oh!! Remember how Franken “won” the Senate seat? They kept recounting until he had more votes than the Repub and then stopped counting. Funny how they kept coming up with more votes after they had supposedly counted them all. Watch for the Dems to pull the same stunt if it’s really close in MN again.


6 posted on 10/28/2012 10:35:58 AM PDT by jeffc (The U.S. media are our enemy)
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To: yoe
RE: "Vote for me, I'll give you everything you need & no work required."


7 posted on 10/28/2012 10:36:16 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind
I live in southern Minnesota. If signs are an indication... I see lots of Rat signs, but only a handful of Obama signs. Lots of Romney signs. More then there were McCain signs. I live in small town rural America. People hold their cards close.

People who are putting signs out for Democrats are omitting the top of the ticket.

8 posted on 10/28/2012 10:49:58 AM PDT by defconw (It's not about a video Dummycrats!)
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To: SeekAndFind

Romney did an ad buy in Minneapolis, ostensibly to reach western Wisconsin markets, but with an auxillary attempt to penetrate Minnesota as well.

For a Republican to allocate resources in the Upper Midwest ten days out of Election Day tells you all you need to know about the state of this race.


9 posted on 10/28/2012 11:45:14 AM PDT by Senator Goldwater
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To: SeekAndFind

Romney did an ad buy in Minneapolis, ostensibly to reach western Wisconsin markets, but with an auxillary attempt to penetrate Minnesota as well.

For a Republican to allocate resources in the Upper Midwest ten days out of Election Day tells you all you need to know about the state of this race.


10 posted on 10/28/2012 11:45:24 AM PDT by Senator Goldwater
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To: SeekAndFind

Hard to believe. This is the state that elected Jesse Ventura and Al Franken.


11 posted on 10/28/2012 12:17:15 PM PDT by Brilliant
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To: Brilliant

First, we never elected Franken. He stole what he has now.

We also elected Michele Bachmann and Tim Pawlenty. We also went 25 years without electing a Democrat governor. More than a cursory examination of our politics from your home in sunny Florida might have revealed that to you.


12 posted on 10/28/2012 12:20:58 PM PDT by Colonel_Flagg ("Don't be afraid to see what you see." -- Ronald Reagan)
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To: Colonel_Flagg

Bachmann is great. Good to see that she’s likely to beat Graves.


13 posted on 10/28/2012 12:45:20 PM PDT by Viennacon
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