Skip to comments.National Polls vs Ohio Polls: Which is Right?
Posted on 10/28/2012 10:26:59 AM PDT by TBBT
Ever since the first debate in Denver, Mitt Romney has been on an upward trajectory in the polls. While he has leveled off somewhat over the last week, nationally he has turned a four point deficit into a one point lead. The lead actually jumps to two points if you only include the eight most recent national (non-online) polls. In those polls Romney leads independents by an average of 17.5 points, which is a remarkable increase over the past month, and an amazing reversal of Obamas 8 point lead with independents in the 2008 election. Romney has now been at or above 50 percent in Gallup for 12 straight days and Rasmussen for 5 straight days
(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...
According to many FReepers who have posted here... they tell me this: Historically, OHIO TRACKS THE NATIONAL RESULTS VERY CLOSELY.
So, whoever wins the popular vote, wins Ohio.
The only reason the Mass Media is hyping OH is it is the only place they can manufacture any good news for O. O can win OH, lose CO and WI (both likely) and lose the election
Since Josh Jordan posted this, new OH polls have come out that show Romney has secured a tie in the Buckeye State.
State polls are always lagging indicators and they’re finally reflecting the national trend.
By the end of the week, the state polls should be in line with what we’re seeing across the nation. And the final Obama domino - that only state polls really matter - will have fallen by then.
Live or die by the polls - Obama will fall on his sword in OH soon enough.
>>According to many FReepers who have posted here... they tell me this: Historically, OHIO TRACKS THE NATIONAL RESULTS VERY CLOSELY.<<
It’s a meme.
Look up “post hoc ergo propter hoc.”
This si the second time I read that states lag the natl polls.
Why is that?
Obama is leading in Ohio when you factor in the ballot stuffing demographic. This is a broad catagory and takes in multiple voting segment, dead voters block, premarked ballots group, and the ever popular assisted voting with absentee ballots (taking in nursing home residence, etc). Since 100% of this dmographic will go to obama, this will push him over the top by only a few % points to make it look realistic. Dump trucks are standing by will all of the ballots needed.
Because state polls are not conducted as often as National Polls. So normally you see a trend in the national polls 1st because they are conducted more frequently.
However this time it may not be the case. Ohio must be the most heavily polled place in history. Every day someone has a new Ohio poll out.
But the bad news for the Leftists is they are basing they analysis of Ohio on only two highly inaccurate polls, CNN and Time. The other 7 Ohio polls show it either a tie or within the Margin of Error
Britt Hume was on FOX News Sunday and said the the Battleground poll will come out tomorrow that will show Romney five (5) points ahead of Obama nationally. He said it’s a reliable poll.
nest time i will use spell check, promise
Thank you, that makes sense, ras hasnt released an Ohio poll in a few days I think
Rass released a poll for Ohio on 10-23 that put it as a tie. I would ignore all media poll and watch what Rass says about Ohio.
When is his next poll do you know?
I don’t know. I hope he releases one tomorrow
Exactly! As one poster stated it, we are looking at Ohio in the wrong way, Ohio goes with the winner, it doesn’t determine the winner.
Romney can lose OH and win if he gets WI, CO and one other state, even one as small as NH. I believe Romney should focus on those 3 states much more than OH. The polls seem to be more favorable to him in NH and CO, and WI should give him a unique advantage thanks to Paul Ryan and Scott Walker’s recent success.
Obama has an unusual card to play in OH, the auto bailout. That’s why OH could diverge from the trend of going with the winner even though it’s done so in the past 40 years every time.
NV is the only other state that goes with the winner as often as OH, having done so for the past 30 years. But even that state could flip to the other side this time due to changing demographics. I wouldn’t rely on historical trends. Times change.
Ohio only supports winners.
Battleground has long been my favorite poll. Their separate GOP / Dem analyses of the same data is always insightful.
I really hope what Britt reported is true. If so, my confidence level of an impending Romney Presidency rises a couple more notches.
The Battleground Poll from the Tarrance Group is led by a Democrat named Celinda Lake. She might be a Democrat but she looks at things clinically and reports objectively.
I have been observing the Battlegound Poll since 2004. They have been THE MOST ACCURATE national pollster bar none. They’re better than Rasmussen and Gallup.
At the state level, I’d look at what the Mason-Dixon poll has to say. Their track record at the state level is outstanding.
That’s pretty much what Britt Hume said, with that who ate the canary look on his face. =)