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Gravis Poll Of Ohio: 0 50%, R 49% (Dems 40%, GOP 32%)
Gravis Polls ^

Posted on 10/28/2012 3:37:05 PM PDT by Arthurio

Gravis Marketing conducted an automated survey of 730 likely voters in Ohio October 27, 2012. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.6% and higher for subgroups.

Results shown by gender and party represent those respondents within those subgroups. All numbers shown in the tables represent percentages rounded to the nearest whole percentage.

The questions were asked in the order of the question numbers which appear in this report. Results only include respondents who answered that they were registered voters, somewhat likely, likely, or very likely to vote. The statistical methodology comprised weighing various groups for anticipated voting proportions, by using census data and voter turnout models from previous elections.

The poll was conducted on behalf of Gravis Marketing, Inc., Gravis Marketing is a non-partisan marketing and research firm located in Winter Springs, Florida. Contact Doug Kaplan (407) 242-1870 doug@gravismarketing.com

Key Findings

· President Barack Obama holds a slim one percentage point lead over Governor Romney, 50 to 49 percent. Only 2 percent are undecided. (Note the figures add up to 101 due to rounding to the nearest whole percentage point.)

· Senator Brown also holds a slim one point lead over his Republican challenger Josh Mandel, 48 to 47 percent. 5 percent of Ohio voters are undecided in this race.

· Early voters clearly favor the Democratic candidates. President Obama leads Mitt Romney by 28 percentage points among the 20 percent of early voters surveyed, 63 to 35 percent. Sherrod Brown leads Josh Mandel by a similar 26-point margin, 61 to 35 percent.

· The likely voters who have not yet cast ballots in Ohio preferred the Republican candidates. Mitt Romney leads President Obama by 6 percentage points with these voters (52 to 46 percent), while Josh Mandel leads with these voters by 5 percentage points (50 to 45 percent).

· This survey shows a 17 percentage point gender gap in the presidential race and a 15 point gap in the Senate race in Ohio. A majority of men favor Governor Romney and Josh Mandel, while a majority of women favor President Obama and Senator Brown.


TOPICS: US: Ohio
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; 2012swingstates; oh2012

1 posted on 10/28/2012 3:37:07 PM PDT by Arthurio
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To: Arthurio

Interesting. That won’t be gameday turnout.


2 posted on 10/28/2012 3:39:36 PM PDT by Ravi
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To: Arthurio

D+8 = Romney win by 5.


3 posted on 10/28/2012 3:41:39 PM PDT by nhwingut (Single Issue Voter: Obama Must Go!)
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To: Arthurio

So, if Republican turnout in Ohio is worse than it was in 2008 Obama wins.

Ri-i-ight.


4 posted on 10/28/2012 3:42:16 PM PDT by No Truce With Kings (Ten years on FreeRepublic and counting.)
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To: Ravi

So it takes a D+8 sample to give Obama a 1 point lead in Ohio?
Nuff said!


5 posted on 10/28/2012 3:42:48 PM PDT by CWW (Pray for God's Protection!)
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To: Arthurio

I think ultimately Romney will carry Ohio by 3-4 points.


6 posted on 10/28/2012 3:42:55 PM PDT by NoobRep
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To: CWW

Gravis is keeping it close. Don’t want to encourage complacency.


7 posted on 10/28/2012 3:45:48 PM PDT by Ravi
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To: CWW
So it takes a D+8 sample to give Obama a 1 point lead in Ohio? Nuff said!

Correct. In fact, this is the most pro-Romney Ohio poll I've seen to date. Looking good.

8 posted on 10/28/2012 3:46:01 PM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: Arthurio

One of them “keep Nate Silver happy” polls.


9 posted on 10/28/2012 3:46:05 PM PDT by BlueStateRightist
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To: Arthurio

So, it sounds like early voters are factored into the overall numbers. The fact that early voters are swung so hard toward Obama gives me a great deal of pause about early voting. Seems to me the early voting could create way too many fraud opportunities.


10 posted on 10/28/2012 3:47:19 PM PDT by ScottinVA (Record high turnout is our hope for sending 0bama home. Pray hard!!!)
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To: CWW

Did I miss it? Where in the article did it say D+8?


11 posted on 10/28/2012 3:55:47 PM PDT by Maceman
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To: Arthurio

No way Dems will +8 over the Repubs. Romney is going to win if this survey is in anyway accurate.


12 posted on 10/28/2012 3:57:34 PM PDT by 3Fingas (Sons and Daughters of Freedom, Committee of Correspondence)
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To: Arthurio
Ohio D 40% vs R 32% equals Obama loses by a bunch.

72% of the remainder Independents win no contest.

13 posted on 10/28/2012 3:58:09 PM PDT by Recon Dad (Gas & Petroleum Junkie)
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To: Arthurio

Oh...and now way, gender gap is +14 Dem, more like +5-8 Dem.
Gender gap the other way will about the same.


14 posted on 10/28/2012 3:59:21 PM PDT by 3Fingas (Sons and Daughters of Freedom, Committee of Correspondence)
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To: Maceman

question 7


15 posted on 10/28/2012 4:00:42 PM PDT by barmag25
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To: Arthurio

Does anyone know what the actual party breakdown in Ohio is?


16 posted on 10/28/2012 4:00:49 PM PDT by Optimus Prime (Do liberals even qualify as sentient beings?)
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To: ScottinVA

They’re using the poll to count early voters. If you look at party affiliation among early voters and project, it’s about 56/43/1, with Obama 56, Romney 43, Other 1.

Note: this doesn’t mean, by itself, that Romney is leading. It’s the D+8 that points that way. If you assume D37 R36 I/O 27 for likely voters, you get about Romney 52.3 Obama 46.5 and Other (more Green than Libertarian in 2012) 1.2. But keep working like it’s a 1 point race in Ohio, because the margin of error/fraud must also be considered.


17 posted on 10/28/2012 4:03:23 PM PDT by bIlluminati (290 Reps, 67 Senators, 38 state legislatures - Impeach, convict, amend)
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To: Arthurio

LOL. So a poll that has 8 points MORE Democrats than Republicans show Obamugabe winning by ONE POINT?!

I’m cool with that. Sounds like the Washington Post Virginia poll.


18 posted on 10/28/2012 4:04:23 PM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: Optimus Prime

Why do these pollsters keep releasing unreleastic turnout polls? I mean, I asking asking as a serious question.


19 posted on 10/28/2012 4:04:48 PM PDT by gswilder
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To: 3Fingas
"No way Dems will +8 over the Repubs. Romney is going to win if this survey is in anyway accurate."

What I don't understand is if this weighting is wrong, then why does Rasmussen have virtually the same result? Is Rasmussen weighting +8 dem????
20 posted on 10/28/2012 4:06:26 PM PDT by AdamBomb
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To: AdamBomb

The poll itself says that 40% D and 32% R.

What is even more devastating is that Romney is up by 12 among independents. If this poll is even remotely accurate, Romney is going to win the state.


21 posted on 10/28/2012 4:16:17 PM PDT by mrs9x
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To: Arthurio

Gravis in Ohio was tied 47 - 47 last week.

Not sure what the partisan breakdown was on that one though.


22 posted on 10/28/2012 4:16:17 PM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: AdamBomb

I think his turnout models are wrong and the net effect will be to add 2 or 3 percentage points to expected Romney votes.
But, I could be wrong about that. Perhaps, the pollsters are subconsciously including democrat voter fraud already into their projections.


23 posted on 10/28/2012 4:16:28 PM PDT by 3Fingas (Sons and Daughters of Freedom, Committee of Correspondence)
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To: NoobRep

I was thinking 3-4, but it may be more than that. Of course, must stay outside the margin of Axelrod.


24 posted on 10/28/2012 4:21:34 PM PDT by C. Edmund Wright ("You Might Be a Liberal" (YMBAL) Coming out Sept 1 by C. Edmund Wright)
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To: Arthurio
Since hearing it on the radio earlier today, I can't get the song "Monster Mash" out of my head. This is probably the "stickiest" song in history. Damn Bobby Boris Pickett and damn Halloween!

That all said, I would like to throw in here that Ohio is going to go to Mitt Romney this year. All this caterwauling needs to stop. Time for Mitt to start campaigning in places like Minnesota, Oregon and New Jersey.

25 posted on 10/28/2012 4:24:27 PM PDT by SamAdams76
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To: Arthurio

That’s right, media.. Keep showing 0bama ahead! Love it, Freepers; This ‘news’ gives the scare the Undecideds need to go out and vote for Romney!


26 posted on 10/28/2012 4:28:46 PM PDT by Obama_Is_Sabotaging_America
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To: InterceptPoint
In fact, this is the most pro-Romney Ohio poll

There are 4 other polls that show it tied in OHIO

27 posted on 10/28/2012 4:29:21 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: Arthurio; SeekAndFind; LS; Perdogg; napscoordinator; God luvs America; nutmeg; SoFloFreeper; ...

Poll ping.


28 posted on 10/28/2012 4:30:50 PM PDT by Jet Jaguar (The pundits have forgotten the 2010 elections.)
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To: Optimus Prime

Party strength by state

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_U.S._states


29 posted on 10/28/2012 4:35:46 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: Arthurio

Yeah! Obama is more popular than in 2008!...Dem +8 to get him to win by 1 point....nice!/s(the /s is for those who could not figure it out)


30 posted on 10/28/2012 4:55:15 PM PDT by Lady Heron
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To: Maceman

The title???


31 posted on 10/28/2012 4:56:40 PM PDT by Lady Heron
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To: MNJohnnie

There are 4 other polls that show it tied in OHIO
+++++++++
But are they D+8? That’s why this poll is so encouraging, the totally unrealistic D/R/I.


32 posted on 10/28/2012 4:57:26 PM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: Arthurio

Great news. Looks like Ohio men and women are moving over To RR


33 posted on 10/28/2012 5:00:25 PM PDT by Steelfish (ui)
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To: Arthurio

Though I have lived outside the US for many years I am officially from New Jersey

I think that the polls there are somewhat skewed as well. While I don’t think it is a lock as an upset I think it may well be much closer than than the pre-election polls suggest.

If you get away from Newark and Camden NJ is fairly conservative place in some ways. I think that Chris Christie has shown a lot of conservatives there that they can stand up and say “No” to the faux moral high ground that liEberals try to occupy.

If the weather is bad the welfare queens and dopers may stay home but I think the more suburban voters - those not on the coast especially will get out and vote, many of them for Romney

It isn’t just Ohio that is in play.


34 posted on 10/28/2012 5:28:58 PM PDT by Fai Mao
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To: Arthurio

Though I have lived outside the US for many years I am officially from New Jersey

I think that the polls there are somewhat skewed as well. While I don’t think it is a lock as an upset I think it may well be much closer than than the pre-election polls suggest.

If you get away from Newark and Camden NJ is fairly conservative place in some ways. I think that Chris Christie has shown a lot of conservatives there that they can stand up and say “No” to the faux moral high ground that liEberals try to occupy.

If the weather is bad the welfare queens and dopers may stay home but I think the more suburban voters - those not on the coast especially will get out and vote, many of them for Romney

It isn’t just Ohio that is in play.


35 posted on 10/28/2012 5:29:17 PM PDT by Fai Mao
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To: Arthurio

These poll results are looking better, but it still doesn’t help that Romney hasn’t led in a single one. We are nine days out. That’s why Ohio still worries me.

The bottom line is, half these polls are going to be wrong on election night. Either Romney wins the popular vote and wins Ohio, or he loses the popular vote and loses Ohio. The possibility of a split is so unlikely.


36 posted on 10/28/2012 5:48:08 PM PDT by Nycrobin
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To: ScottinVA
Where did you get that early voters have "swung heavily" to Zero? Adrian Gray's analysis of OH bellweayher counties showed. Sligh GOP lead. The only source for an Obama early toe lead is a single cherry picked county.on top of that, the way it's decided they voted Obama is through . . . At-daaaa-- an exit poll.

Tell me how those exit polls worked in 2004.

37 posted on 10/28/2012 6:18:52 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: LS

The article stated a 63-35% advantage for Obama among early voters.


38 posted on 10/28/2012 6:37:35 PM PDT by ScottinVA (Record high turnout is our hope for sending 0bama home. Pray hard!!!)
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To: comebacknewt

Found it.

Last week Gravis had it 47 - 47 with D +9.

This week it is 50 - 49 in favor of the Kenyan with D +8.

Certainly not a devastating development by any means, but also no cause for celebration.


39 posted on 10/28/2012 6:39:42 PM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: ScottinVA; LS

If Obama really wins early voters by 28%, then he likely will win the state.

I think Adrian Gray’s numbers said the Dems were only winning by around 13% though.

Is that 13% margin consistent with what you heard, LS?


40 posted on 10/28/2012 6:48:05 PM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: comebacknewt; LS

Ohio: In my bellwether counties, GOP is up by 0.1% out of 240,606 cast! In 2008, GOP were down 7.3% in same counties. (per election offices)

https://twitter.com/adrian_gray/status/262020636065546241


41 posted on 10/28/2012 8:12:59 PM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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