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Advantage Obama in hunt for 270 electoral votes
AP via SFGate ^ | 10/28/12 | THOMAS BEAUMONT, Associated Press

Posted on 10/28/2012 7:01:43 PM PDT by SmithL

AMES, Iowa (AP) — President Barack Obama is poised to eke out a victory in the race for the 270 electoral votes needed to win re-election, having beaten back Republican Mitt Romney's attempts to convert momentum from the debates into support in all-important Ohio, according to an Associated Press analysis a week before Election Day.

While the Democratic incumbent has the upper hand in the electoral vote hunt, Romney has pulled even, or is slightly ahead, in polling in a few pivotal states, including Florida and Virginia. The Republican challenger also appears to have the advantage in North Carolina, the most conservative of the hotly contested nine states that will determine the winner.

While in a tight race with Obama for the popular vote, Romney continues to have fewer state-by-state paths than Obama to reach 270. Without Ohio's 18 electoral votes, Romney would need last-minute victories in nearly all the remaining up-for-grabs states and manage to pick off key states now leaning Obama's way, such as Iowa or Wisconsin.

(Excerpt) Read more at sfgate.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Government; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: asspressbias; hurricanesandy; ilovelucy; japan; obama; romney; skittles
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1 posted on 10/28/2012 7:01:44 PM PDT by SmithL
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AssPress is doing their part to reelect 0bama.


2 posted on 10/28/2012 7:02:23 PM PDT by SmithL
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To: SmithL

Iowa is “leaning” to Obama? Just after all four Newspapers of merit endorsed Romney?

If out of the blue, suddenly those toss up states are now “leaning to Obama” and yeah, this new math WOULD favor Obama


3 posted on 10/28/2012 7:05:27 PM PDT by Experiment 6-2-6 (Admn Mods: tiny, malicious things that glare and gibber from dark corners.They have pins and dolls..)
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To: SmithL

“There are no US Forces anywhere near Baghdad!”

Baghdad Bob - spokesperson for Saddam Hussein - March 2003....just before the statue was toppled.......!

Sorry AP - just saying it doesn’t make it so!


4 posted on 10/28/2012 7:08:02 PM PDT by VikingMom (I may not know what the future holds but I know who holds the future!)
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To: SmithL

Horse manure. No way is Indiana leaning Romney. It is in the bag for Romney.

So are most of those states leaning Obama.

AP is full of Ocrap.


5 posted on 10/28/2012 7:08:39 PM PDT by dforest
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To: SmithL

Horse manure. No way is Indiana leaning Romney. It is in the bag for Romney.

So are most of those states leaning Obama.

AP is full of Ocrap.


6 posted on 10/28/2012 7:09:42 PM PDT by dforest
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To: SmithL

LOL!

These people try so hard, dont they?


7 posted on 10/28/2012 7:10:03 PM PDT by VanDeKoik
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To: SmithL

The map makes it look like Romney needs to wrest WI, OH, IA, PA or MI from The W0n.


8 posted on 10/28/2012 7:10:40 PM PDT by Paladin2
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To: Paladin2

Michael Barone picks Romney to win. Somehow I think he’s more credible than these AP clowns.


9 posted on 10/28/2012 7:13:48 PM PDT by Signalman
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To: SmithL

The analysis can be boiled down to this — whichever candidate loses Ohio, loses the election. Obama needs it every bit as much as Romney does.

Sure, there are scenarios out there where either of them could win without it, but they are very dubious.

We are in decent shape there. Obama is below 50% in most of the polls and the momentum is clearly with Romney.

One more strong week, and we should be able to get there and retire the worst President in the history of our country.


10 posted on 10/28/2012 7:16:04 PM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: SmithL

If they’re willing to lie about or ignore all the relevant news about Benghazi, then for them lying about or ignoring all the relevant data about this election is a walk in the park.


11 posted on 10/28/2012 7:16:09 PM PDT by BlueStateRightist
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To: SmithL

This is satire, right?


12 posted on 10/28/2012 7:27:14 PM PDT by siamesecats (God closes one door, and opens another, to protect us.)
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To: All

I never thought the Supreme Court would pass ObamaCare. But they did. Now, if O wins, I will be so demoralized. I hope our leaders have the strength to unite us to fight on. I pray.


13 posted on 10/28/2012 7:27:48 PM PDT by ncpatriot
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To: SmithL
AP via SFGate      





14 posted on 10/28/2012 7:29:52 PM PDT by tomkat
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To: SmithL

My takeaway from this article is that the Obama camp already know it has lost Florida.


15 posted on 10/28/2012 7:30:44 PM PDT by cdga5for4
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To: SmithL

My takeaway from this article is that the Obama camp already know it has lost Florida.


16 posted on 10/28/2012 7:31:09 PM PDT by cdga5for4
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To: cdga5for4

No sampling breakdown. Who knows how truly bad it is for Hussein.


17 posted on 10/28/2012 7:33:59 PM PDT by Kozy (Calling Al Gore)
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To: SmithL

I haven’t been paying much attention to each state’s election laws or the electoral math counts but haven’t there been changes to something on the order of 10 states’ laws to split the electoral vote along popular vote lines within the state (or at least apportion electoral votes)? Have the math counts been taking that into consideration or have they still been using the “winner takes all” measure?


18 posted on 10/28/2012 7:35:01 PM PDT by a fool in paradise (Obama likes to claim credit for getting Osama. Why hasn't he tried Khalid Sheikh Mohammed yet?)
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To: comebacknewt
"The analysis can be boiled down to this — whichever candidate loses Ohio, loses the election. Obama needs it every bit as much as Romney does."

If the polls, poll analysis, and trends are to be believed, Obama needs Ohio much more than Romney does. I don't think Obama can win without Ohio, but I believe that Romney can.

19 posted on 10/28/2012 7:39:11 PM PDT by CatOwner
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To: a fool in paradise

It’s still winner-take-all in almost every state.


20 posted on 10/28/2012 7:44:10 PM PDT by SmithL
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To: SmithL

FWIW - I happened to be in Wilmington, DE (I’m from the pacific NW) yesterday driving around and saw zero, zilch, NADA obama signs but tons of Romney signs.


21 posted on 10/28/2012 7:46:05 PM PDT by Aria ( 2008 wasn't an election - it was a coup d'etat.)
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To: cdga5for4

This has to be a scary scenario for Obama: for sake of argument I am giving him Michigan, Nevada, Iowa, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania. This article was enough to put Florida in the Romney column. If Romney wins Virginia but loses Ohio he can still win by winning New Hampshire and Wisconsin. Romney obviously can’t lose both Virginia and Ohio but if he splits he is still in position to win. Obama doesn’t have any safer path than Romney as soon as Florida goes to Romney.


22 posted on 10/28/2012 7:46:36 PM PDT by cdga5for4
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To: Experiment 6-2-6

Ames is a university town. Any opinion base on a poll of reporters’ questions is going to be biased. Reporters aren’t going to bother to ask “workers”.


23 posted on 10/28/2012 7:52:09 PM PDT by VanShuyten ("a shadow...draped nobly in the folds of a gorgeous eloquence.")
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To: SmithL

They’re not counting the same swing states that RCP is. Here are Romney’s possible paths to victory if the election is close.

Romney needs to get a base of 248 EVs including VA, NC and FL. Then he has several ways to carve up the swing states and win. My favored target is with WI, CO and NH.

Swing states:
Pennsylvania (20)
Ohio (18)
Michigan (16)
Wisconsin (10)
Colorado (9)
Iowa (6)
Nevada (6)
New Hampshire (4)

Winning OH gets him 266. He needs any one of the other 7 remaining swing states to win, the smallest being NH.

Winning PA puts him in the same position at 268 of needing one more state.

Winning MI puts him in almost the same position, except NH wouldn’t be enough to put him over the top then, he’d need any one of the other bigger states.

Winning WI gives him 258 EVs. He needs 12 more EVs to win. It could be CO and any one of NH, IA or NV, or it could just be IA and NV.

If he misses all those bigger states, then he needs all 4 of CO, IA, NV and NH to win outright. He could lose NH in that scenario and still tie, which would guarantee him the win in the tie-breaking House vote, but possibly allow the Senate to elect Biden as V.P.


24 posted on 10/28/2012 7:54:11 PM PDT by JediJones (Vote NO on Proposition Zero! Tuesday, November 6th!)
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To: SmithL

The AP is still asuming that FL, NC, VA, CO and NH are still “toss-ups” which is not the case. They are lean Romney. So in fact Romney is closer to victory than Obama.


25 posted on 10/28/2012 7:54:54 PM PDT by HapaxLegamenon
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To: Aria; SmithL
FWIW - I happened to be in Wilmington, DE (I’m from the pacific NW) yesterday driving around and saw zero, zilch, NADA obama signs but tons of Romney signs.

I'm in CA (SF East Bay Area) and I am skeptical of the "deep blue" CA on that electoral map. In one of the most liberal congressional districts in the state, the old stomping grounds of Ron Dellums, I am seeing BO bumper stickers on fewer than 1 percent of the cars. There are almost NO BO yard or window signs. I drove down a street that had a BO sign out in front a few weeks ago and today it wasn't there. No Romney signs or bumper stickers around, but people don't want their property vandalized.

Only in a small community with a responsible and responsive police presence will you see Romney signs in yards (sometimes more than one sign in the same yard -- I will not name where this is, out of a desire to protect the residents and their freedom to express their political preference on their own property).

If the mood is like this in CA-13, I have doubts about that color on the map. It should be no more than light blue, maybe even a tossup. Who knows? There are MANY grim people around here.

26 posted on 10/28/2012 7:56:46 PM PDT by thecodont
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To: cdga5for4
If Romney wins Virginia but loses Ohio he can still win by winning New Hampshire and Wisconsin.

Only if he wins CO also, but CO seems to be one of the likelier swing state wins for Romney win for Romney. I think this path to victory seems more doable and I hope Romney starts hitting Wisconsin harder than he's hitting Ohio. I don't see how that state can vote for Obama after keeping Walker on by a large margin despite massive liberal action to defeat him. It certainly seems less likely than Ohio voting for Obama, especially if both Romney and hometown boy Ryan hit it hard.

Sununu and Romney's New England roots should be a boost to pulling in NH. Romney also did far better in NH's primary than IA, so I'd look to NH for a win before IA.

27 posted on 10/28/2012 7:59:12 PM PDT by JediJones (Vote NO on Proposition Zero! Tuesday, November 6th!)
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To: VikingMom

Hey great comparison there VikingMom!


28 posted on 10/28/2012 7:59:36 PM PDT by ChinaGotTheGoodsOnClinton (Go Egypt on 0bama)
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To: BlueStateRightist
"If they’re willing to lie about or ignore all the relevant news about Benghazi, then for them lying about or ignoring all the relevant data about this election is a walk in the park."

This cannot be emphasized enough. Assume everything coming from the MSM/left are lies. Can anyone provide evidence that would suggest otherwise?

29 posted on 10/28/2012 8:01:50 PM PDT by wolf24
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To: SmithL

AP via SFGate ..... No thanks.


30 posted on 10/28/2012 8:02:42 PM PDT by Gator113 (I would have voted for NEWT, now it's Romney & Ryan.~Just livin' life, my way~)
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To: thecodont

Our neighborhood have chairs in the driveway meaning that they’re Romney supporters. Different kinds, subtle...some wicker, some plastic, some wooden, a rocker, etc. and flying the flag on the house.


31 posted on 10/28/2012 8:03:09 PM PDT by sanjuanbob
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To: sanjuanbob

I saw a chair in a front yard, by the curb. Didn’t see if it had a “free, please take” sign on it though.

A house that had a McCain/Palin sign on it in 2008 had an American flag on it when I saw it a few days ago. Having a flag out is a good statement. Vandals can’t justify attacking it, but it sends the right message.


32 posted on 10/28/2012 8:06:40 PM PDT by thecodont
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To: SmithL
To quote our beloved President this analysts ‘He's a Bull$hi++er’

No way FL & VA. are Tossups they are SOLID Red and O’Bumler has all but conceded them to Romney. IA and NH Are lean Romney and almost done. OH was JUST TODAY said by the Plain Dealer to be all tied at 49 - 49. That means O’Bumbler and WI and PA and MI are the NEW toss up states.

Fear not the ice is breaking under O’Buimblers feet. The October surprise is no surprise at all: A weak economy and a massive scandal of incompetence and political calculus over American lives is BLOWING UP AS WE SPEAK!

Romney 53 - 46 takes 320 -350 electoral votes, Rats lose the Senate and the House stays firmly Republican. Nov 7th, let the heeling begin!

33 posted on 10/28/2012 8:07:34 PM PDT by Jim from C-Town (The government is rarely benevolent, often malevolent and never benign!)
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To: JediJones

Correct, I had put Colorado in the Romney column and I think Romney should be going hard in Wisconsin.


34 posted on 10/28/2012 8:08:12 PM PDT by cdga5for4
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To: JediJones

Correct, I had put Colorado in the Romney column and I think Romney should be going hard in Wisconsin.


35 posted on 10/28/2012 8:08:39 PM PDT by cdga5for4
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To: cdga5for4

Greta Van Susteren actually said she thought Romney was going to take Wisconsin last week. She’s a Cheesehead and that’s an unusual statement from someone who doesn’t offer a whole lot of opinions on her show. If Romney wins Wisconsin, it becomes very likely he can piece together a win, needing just a couple other small states.


36 posted on 10/28/2012 8:12:20 PM PDT by JediJones (Vote NO on Proposition Zero! Tuesday, November 6th!)
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Comment #37 Removed by Moderator

To: SmithL
Well, I guess the Obama Campaign Strategy of leaving four Brave Americans to die at the hands of the friendly Libyan Jihadist’s is paying off big time.

Maybe Obama should make a You Tube Video of him and Biden drowning some Kittens to put them over 300 EV’s.

I swear, if this Country has a majority Electorate who can pull the lever for Obama / Biden, knowing what they know now, we are in a world of hurt with no way back to sanity.

38 posted on 10/28/2012 8:13:56 PM PDT by Kickass Conservative (How do you insult an Obama Voter? Call them an Obama Voter.)
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To: SmithL

This article is garbage..and merely repeats a Democr4at talking points mantra that I’ve heard for quite a while.

But things have changed.

Romney no longer NEEDS Ohio to win..

Instead..it is Obama to NEEDS Ohio..as his firewall against an easy Romney victory.

If anyone is rapidly losing options when it comes to an electoral college victory..it’s Obama.


39 posted on 10/28/2012 8:15:44 PM PDT by Livfreeordi
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To: ncpatriot
I hope our leaders have the strength to unite us to fight on.

I hope these so called leaders are ready for the next revolution. They are being put on notice. People are fed up with the bastards.

Most of them should be hung in a public square. They are traitors to this country.

40 posted on 10/28/2012 8:16:33 PM PDT by unixfox (Abolish Slavery, Repeal The 16th Amendment!)
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To: SmithL

When this is done, Zero will be fortunate to get just the states that AP claims are solid Zero. EVERYTHING else goes to Mittens.


41 posted on 10/28/2012 8:17:19 PM PDT by mountn man (Happiness is not a destination, its a way of life.)
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To: CatOwner

If Obama misses OH, he needs to win every swing state besides NC, VA and FL. So, yeah, Obama needs OH more than Romney needs it. The AP seems to have cooked their “swing state” list for this article to make it seem like Romney needed it more.

Without OH, Obama needs these:

PA
MI
WI
CO
NV
IA
NH


42 posted on 10/28/2012 8:17:33 PM PDT by JediJones (Vote NO on Proposition Zero! Tuesday, November 6th!)
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To: thecodont

It’s pretty bad on the other side of the bay — Palo Alto, Menlo Park, Mtn View, Los Altos. Lots of Obama yard signs, but hardly any bumper stickers. On our block, there are 6 Obama signs and 2 Romney signs. One family is split and may put up both.


43 posted on 10/28/2012 8:21:18 PM PDT by ProtectOurFreedom
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To: SmithL

If Obungo was 50% and Romney was 46% (i.e., the reverse of Gallup) the MSM would be declaring this election over for their messiah.


44 posted on 10/28/2012 8:38:39 PM PDT by Jackie Treehorn
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To: ProtectOurFreedom

Thanks for the report from the Peninsula/Upper Silicon Valley.

I wonder why there’s a discrepancy between the yard signs and the bumper stickers?


45 posted on 10/28/2012 8:59:26 PM PDT by thecodont
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To: SmithL

Every time I see one of these I search for the word “independent”, and I never see it, whether from Silver or anyone else. How does Obama win if he’s losing 7+% of independents? Even the polls showing Obama ahead show him losing among independents. No incumbent has won without getting at least close to 50% among independents. Why should this time be different? Why aren’t independents at least considered?

How does Obama win Ohio if he loses Independents by 7%? Is Dem turnout really going to be so much better than GOP turnout that it can overcome that?

If Gallup is correct, and Romney is winning by 4%, with a couple of undecideds still to decide, presumably for Romney, how does Obama win?

I suppose it’s possible Obama will win, but it doesn’t seem likely; he’s certainly not a “favorite.” His winning would be a perfect storm.


46 posted on 10/28/2012 9:12:31 PM PDT by TomEwall
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To: TomEwall

“I wonder why there’s a discrepancy between the yard signs and the bumper stickers?”

People don’t want their cars keyed, or to be subject to road rage.

It’s real out there.


47 posted on 10/28/2012 9:16:55 PM PDT by Persevero (Homeschooling for Excellence since 1992)
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To: SmithL

In nine days, these people are going to eat crow, big time.


48 posted on 10/28/2012 9:25:08 PM PDT by Rocky (Obama is pure evil.)
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To: SmithL

Asspress liars are nothing but pigs and jackals.


49 posted on 10/28/2012 9:29:19 PM PDT by Luke21
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To: Experiment 6-2-6

They have NC as just a “leans Romney” and Florida as still a “tossup”. More whisteling past the graveyard for the Friends of our first Red president.


50 posted on 10/28/2012 9:44:36 PM PDT by NavVet ("You Lie!")
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