Posted on 10/28/2012 7:06:10 PM PDT by tatown
Every major poll has Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney in the pivotal state of Ohio.In the last 70 years Ohio has selected the winner EVERY year except in 1960. This year should be no different.
Now I am born and raised in Ohio and have spent OVER 50 years here. I doubt seriously that NO person who understands investing ,predicting the future and knows more about Ohio politics than me.
First question is why is the national media polls (even Fox )all showing Mr Obama with a lead or a tie? It is simple and you can decide for yourself once I lay out my FACTS,whether these pollsters are ignorant or intentionally dishonest
In 2008 Obama won Ohio by 262, 224 votes out of over 5.6 million votes
However McCain won over 60 of Ohio’s 88 counties . 4 counties, Cuyahoga where I live,Summit its neighboring county, Lucas near Toledo and Franklin in Columbus. Voted for Obama last time by 453,135 more than McCain
So Obviously Obama “needs” a big showing in these 4 counties because the other 84 counties selected John McCain by almost 200,000 votes
I doubt seriously that few if any McCain voters would switch their vote this time to Obama but MANY union workers who aren’t working will no doubt switch
I have reason to believe that those 4 counties will not provide enough votes to carry BHO to victory
Lets examine the largest Cuyahoga County, where I have resided since I was 3 years old.
Last election it carried Obama by 245,467 votes,almost the entire margin of victory.
This county where I live WILL go Obama again but the question is by how much
There was almost 1.1 million voters in Cuyahoga County last year and this year there is 916,000 almost 200,000 less
But there are now 26% more Republicans and 11% less Democrats in Cuyahoga county
The city of Cleveland which is by far the largest city in Cuyahoga County
There are almost 100,000 less registered voters in the city Cleveland in 2012 than in 2008. Part of that is due to the housing crisis and part of that is due to John Kasich the Republican governor, purging the voting rolls of many voters who were not purged under Democratic governor Ted Strickland.
I wont bore you with the”math” but my projections shows Mr Obama winning Cuyahoga county by about 100,000 votes which is about 145,000 less than last time.
Franklin county also has considerably less voters than last time and my projection is that Obama will only carry Franklin by around 16,000 votes a difference of 82,842
So basically in the other 86 counties Romney has to get about 326 more votes in EACH than he did last time
Trust me it is GOING TO happen EASILY
If these Democratic bastions are not supporting the President, how can you think the cities and counties that supported John McCain last time aren’t going to come out in record numbers?
Cuyahoga Falls,Sydney, Cincinnati Defiance all have had record crowds
Cuyahoga Falls drew 13,000 on a Tuesday night when it was under 50 degrees and I talked to a couple last night who were among a large group of thousands who were turned away.
I have talked to at least a dozen lifetime Democrats UNION Construction workers who are voting for Romney because they aren’t working.
Yesterday I drove through Parma Ohio which is the 2nd biggest city in Cuyahoga county. It is full of auto workers and union workers who are traditionally Democratic almost all white voters.
In 2008 the ratio of Democratic signs to Republicans signs were about 4 Democratic signs for every Republican sign. Yesterday the ratio was 3 Mitt signs for every 2 Obama signs. That is a HUGE differential
Then I drove through to the edges of Cuyahoga county and through Summit county which went to Obama by over 43,000 votes in 2008. I counted 45 Romney signs and 10 Obama signs in the 25 minute drive.
I am writing this article because Obama and his minions are using the only tactic left to try and win this: FEAR.
The media wants you to think that BHO has a solid lead in OHIO.But folks it just isn’t true
In part 3 of this series I will explain how the pollsters have this wrong and what INCENTIVES they have to do so
I will also show you detailed “polling” and will show you the actual”math” in coming to my conclusion which i would love to see “the experts” try and deny.
Share this with everyone on Facebook Twitter and through E mails and friend me on Facebook .Those who friend me will be invited to one of the largest Mitt Romney private groups on Facebook where you can see the nationwide electricity
Ping
excellent article
excellent article
Certainly sounds goods.
Did Rove project Mitt the likely winner yet?
There are real factors that are difficult for polls to reflect or capture assuming they are trying to tell the truth. There is also the 2008 turnout template that the media continues to use, despite the overwhelming 2010 turnout that led to a historic sweep of the house. I think there are other factors the polls don’t seem to weigh.
The economy voters - Romney has stolen the Clinton mantra of the economy and polls show a widening gap - has to be worth a few points.
The enthusiasm gap - the enthusiasm for Obama is not even remotely close to the “hope and change” 4 years ago - has to be worth a few points even if it is just part-time rats and independents who choose not to vote. I think all of us know plenty of former Obama voters who are not supporting him now.
I also believe the voter fraud gap is going to be measurable in Ohio. Based on my recollection, I think Acorn was huge in the last election in the larger Ohio cities and they really got out a huge vote that led to some of the numbers he gave. Acorn still exists, but it is a shadow of what it was. I believe that means less fraudulent voting - might be worth a point or two.
I am optimistic. Good write up and FRegards.
That point could be argued...
If Obama conceded Ohio to Romney, then Romney would only need 4 more EVs to win (NH) even if he failed to pick up WI, IA, or CO.
This is why the MSM media is scared to death to show Romney ahead in Ohio. For by doing that, they have for all intents and purposes conceded the election to Romney. Ohio is truly Obama's firewall and they will cling to it all the way to election day.
Poll ping.
So who is this bloke who doesn’t know the distinction in usage between “less” and “fewer” and uses singular verbs with numbers meant as collections of person, and why should we pay attention to his views?
More importantly, The GOP candidate who has won the popular votes has overperformed in OH an average of 3.61% above the final national number.
Who knows. There seem to be plenty of dipshits in here that trip all over themselves with poll results from propagandists like PPP so this is simply another view from a dude in the battlezone. As far as his English goes, who really gives a shit?
We’ll find out in 9 days. Either we’re gonna be serving crow or, we’ll be eating it.
:)
I think now there is a new emphases by the Obama campaign for FL. It is a Hail Mary. Some one is now messing with the intrade FL bet
How much phony votes can they gin up to overcome the real gap. I think they have calculated 150,000 + so we need 200,000 to factor that out.
This is nice to read, but most of it sounds anecdotal. If there are so fewer voters in these counties, where did they go? If they moved within state, they’d still count the same. Also, the ground game of Obama is insane. I think it will almost certainly be very close, possibly recount.
If Obama wins, crow might be all that we can afford to eat.
I sure hope he’s right.
I think I will take issue with 1960. That election was stolen in Cooke County, Illinois, so Kennedy really wasn’t the true winner.
Therefore Ohio has a perfect record.
I think you are referring to JFK’s ‘win’ in 1960. I think most people may have missed that.
Ohio went for Dewey in 1944, which is not quite 70 years ago.
I hope that will still be true Nov 7th!!
“Did Rove project Mitt the likely winner yet?”
Yes he did, just a couple days ago.
Now that is a stat I like to read!!
Since 1916 when the GOP has won the popular vote, the Dem candidate has average 1.64% less than the percentage he received in the national popular , the GOP has averaged 1.97% than the percentage he received in the national popular vote.
Bump
Welcome to Free Republic. Do you live in Ohio or did you just hear this from someone. People on the ground in Ohio have been saying that Romney GOTV is the best they’ve ever seen.
1 - Since FDR, Clinton is the only Dem to have two terms.
2 - No candidate with a poll rating of 50 and above has lost.
3 - The 2010 election move away from the left.
Ohio is one fo the most blue-collar states of all. They have been hurt really badly in this recession. Obama has clout in the union held areas only, but we’ve also seen a lot of union people show up in 2010 and vote for republicans because of Obama’s policies. Like Rush says, we tea party people are not sitting this thing out. We are more energized then ever, just waiting to pull the lever and get this horrible daydream over. One guy, in PA or OH has begun having meetings in his house to inform working men about the issues in this election. He has turned about 80 democrats to republicans so far. in a fem months time. You know that these people tell others, as well. Family members. People are beginning to wake up...in the african-american community, the Hispanic communities, etc. I think this election will go down in history as the Great Awakening.
“So who is this bloke who doesn’t know the distinction in usage between “less” and “fewer” and uses singular verbs with numbers meant as collections of person, and why should we pay attention to his views?”
Bloke? Are you a Brit? That would explain your misunderstanding of the organizing principle of the English language. There are no rules in English. Yes, seriously.
English is taking over the world because it adapts and adopts new usages. If he wrote it, we understand him, and enough people accept his usage, *PRESTO* it is official English.
There is no “l’academie francaise” of English. This was fought for a few hundred years ago, but your side lost.
Southern slang, Brooklyn slang, American indian names, Spanish, etc. All are incorporated on an almost casual basis. Even though you may hate it with a purple passion, hip hop street lingo, such as “true dat”, “Bling”, “Pwned” and a zillion other phrases, become official English just through usage and acceptance.
So the actual question is, why should we pay attention to YOUR views?
We pay attention to him because of his skill reading numbers, not because of his writing skills. I am an English major—I am always very concerned about correct English and spelling usage. (Some Freepers disgust me.) But this man’s knowledge and passion is strong and straight forward. I can put aside my own prejudices and listen to him. Perhaps you can as well.
Ohio will go GOP easily.
Rove will do that on the 7th.
True. But the candidates know the truth.
In doing so, he is bringing down the Democrat Party as well by not moving resources to areas that could help other candidates.
The GOP ground game is also very strong.
The fact is that Romney leads in the national polls by +5 and that will translate into a Romney win.
That may be but he’s either illiterate or needs an editor. It’s so full of grammatical errors, it’s painful.
I wish he would bore us with the math--it would give him a bit more credibility, especially since the blog reads like it was written by a semi-literate individual.
I see the pollsters dilemma regarding what the makeup of the voters will be. It seems pretty clear it won’t be what it was in 2008, but they can’t use the 2010 midterms because those elections get far fewer voters than a pres. race. I think I have read that in 2004 it was just about an even split, nationally.
I’ve been a bit suspicious of Obama’s Ohio lead (or worried about it, depending on my mood). I always think of Ohio as pretty republican, but if they’ve gone with the winner since 1960 that obviously includes Carter and Clinton twice. So I guess they truly are a swing state, at least pres. wise.
AH, I wish you hadn’t said that about Hitler. Because now you’ve got me lusting to see the “Hitler learns Obama Lost” video(s) that will be available in a few days time.
LOL, the best one of those I’ve ever seen was one hubby showed me about motorcycles: Hitler learns he’ll won’t have a Harley to ride to the Sturgis motorcycle rally (something like that). It was great, whoever did it matched the words to the scene almost perfectly.
I hope the Obama loses one will be just as good, it will be even more enjoyable to watch!
“So who is this bloke who doesn’t know the distinction in usage between “less” and “fewer” and uses singular verbs with numbers meant as collections of person, and why should we pay attention to his views?”
Haven’t you learned “Bloke,” that in the USA, grammar, cognition and comprehension are altogether separate.
I subscribe to the author’s views wholeheartedly. November 6th will bear this out to provide you clarity.
Dumb yourself down a bit, if necessary, to see the logic rather than the delivery you find so lacking. Oddly, the Brits thought as you do during the Revolutionary war....
Romney will get 315 - 350 EVs.
Landslide baby!
Serving. Landslide!
Yes, that will be a very funny video, I am looking forward to seeing it also!
If the Ds from 08 had been dropped off roll in the primaries and shown up as "Us" then I think we should expect to see an increase in Us as Ds swelled their ranks. We have no evidence of that.
Second, by all polls, those Us will vote R at a 10-15% higher rate Han they will D.
Finally, most polls show that SOME Ds will vote for R at a 5-7% higher rate than Rs will vote D.
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