Battleground Tracking Poll (0 49 R 48, but R leads 53% to 44% among those extremely likely to vote)

Politico ^

[Arthurio]

MARION, Ohio — With eight days to go until the election, President Barack Obama has recaptured a narrow national lead over Mitt Romney, riding increased support from women and an edge in early voting.

A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Tracking Poll of 1,000 likely voters — taken from last Monday through Thursday — shows Obama ahead of Romney by 1 percent, 49 to 48 percent. That represents a 3-point swing in Obama’s direction from a week ago but reflects a race that remains statistically tied.

Obama leads by 8 points among those who have already voted, 53 to 45 percent. These early voters represent 15 percent of the electorate, with many more expected to vote in the next few days — though Hurricane Sandy could change that.

But the GOP nominee maintains a potentially pivotal advantage in intensity among his supporters. Sixty percent of those who support Obama say they are “extremely likely” to vote, compared to 73 percent who back Romney. Among this group, Romney leads Obama by 9 points, 53 to 44 percent.

-snip-

Republican pollster Ed Goeas of the Tarrance Group, who helped conduct the poll, said that the president has turned some voters off when he talks about good economic news because there is a disconnect between what they’re experiencing and what he’s describing. He warns that a bad jobs report this Friday could be a game-changer. Goeas exuded confidence because of Romney’s sizable intensity edge. “The closer we get to the election, the Democrats don’t appear offsetting our intensity with their ground game,” he said. Lake acknowledges that it is “a real threat,” which puts an added imperative on turning out young, single and Latino voters.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/82986.html#ixzz2Ag4dVK6P

[goldstategop]

O has an early edge BUT voting intensity is higher among Romney’s supporters.

I expect Romney to take over the lead and win the election.

Steady as she goes! The news looks excellent this morning!

[emax]

So do you think we can actually have a GOP Senate and House after this election ? And if we have a GOP Senate and GOP House but not a GOP White House, for whatever reason, what can we do from here ? I hope there are productive things that can be done other than simply ranting about how America is doomed to become like Nazi Germany or Stalinist Russia or the Sudan or something. I share your concerns and passions, but helplessness, victimhood and hysteria won’t get mainstream American support for any side at this point.

[1035rep]

“R leads 53% to 44% among those extremely likely to vote”\

Excellent! Thanks for posting!!

[Fai Mao]

The ting is winning does not matter if the enthusiasm then fades. 2014 the lead must be maintained or expanded

[SoFloFreeper]

But the GOP nominee maintains a potentially pivotal advantage in intensity among his supporters. Sixty percent of those who support Obama say they are “extremely likely” to vote, compared to 73 percent who back Romney. Among this group, Romney leads Obama by 9 points, 53 to 44 percent.

In other words, it is all about Get Out The Vote! GOTV...do your part, not just by voting but by GETTING OTHERS OUT TO THE POLLS!!!

[fortheDeclaration]

They are trying to find a silver lining for Obama, he is toast and they know it.

[snarkytart]

Oy don’t like this poll one bit.

[MEG33]

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2951768/posts

New Poll Projects: Romney 52, Obama 47
Weekly Standard ^

Posted on Monday, October 29, 2012 4:29:01 AM by Arthurio

The bipartisan Battleground Poll, in its “vote election model,” is projecting that Mitt Romney will defeat President Obama 52 percent to 47 percent. The poll also found that Romney has an even greater advantage among middle class voters, 52 percent to 45 percent.

While Obama can close the gap with a strong voter turnout effort, “reports from the field would indicate that not to be the case, and Mitt Romney may well be heading to a decisive victory,” says pollster Ed Goeas.

[LibLieSlayer]

As I understand it from Fox and certain articles posted here yesterday... much of the obama early voting advantage in places like Ohio have turned out to be nothing but psyops propaganda. Take that out of the mix and obama would be well behind in this tracking poll. They are counting votes that:

a) have not been opened
b) may not have been cast at all

LLS

[okie01]

much of the obama early voting advantage in places like Ohio have turned out to be nothing but psyops propaganda. Take that out of the mix and obama would be well behind in this tracking poll.

The Battleground poll claims that 15% of respondents have already voted. And that Obama enjoys a 53-45 lead among this segment.

Applying that to the total base of 1,000 respondents, it means the early voting base is around 150. Small sample with an estimated margin of error over 5%. Meaning that a 53-45 lead is "within the margin of error".

[LS]

BOOM! "Obama leads by 8 points among those who have already voted."

Oh , so it's NOT 20.

Obama lost OH---he needed a 20-point EV lead in 08 to win by 6.

I.e, 20-8=12-6=6 point Romney win in OH, or about where Gallup has it nationally.

[LibLieSlayer]

Whatever the early vote totals... reports are that there is no obama advantage. Thanks for the breakdown!

LLS

[Tennessean4Bush]

Obama lost OH---he needed a 20-point EV lead in 08 to win by 6.

Battleground poll is not OH, I don't think.

[jackmercer]

That’s a projection which doesn’t really mean anything with over a week to go. The actual polling data they released with it has Obama up 49 to 48. I think false confidence will keep some on the fence conservatives at home...must keep up the fight!

[MEG33]

I am far from complacent..
I’ve voted already..

EVERY VOTE COUNTS