Posted on 10/29/2012 2:29:01 AM PDT by Arthurio
The bipartisan Battleground Poll, in its “vote election model,” is projecting that Mitt Romney will defeat President Obama 52 percent to 47 percent. The poll also found that Romney has an even greater advantage among middle class voters, 52 percent to 45 percent.
While Obama can close the gap with a strong voter turnout effort, “reports from the field would indicate that not to be the case, and Mitt Romney may well be heading to a decisive victory,” says pollster Ed Goeas.
Should Romney win by 5 percentage points, it would increase Republican chances of gaining control of the Senate. His coattails would help elect GOP Senate candidates in Virginia, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. “Republicans are now certain to hold the House,” Goeas said, “regardless of how the presidential race turns out.”
The poll’s election model takes into account variables including voter intensity, age, and education, and voters who are certain in their vote. The race “remains very close in the surface,” Goeas said, “but the political environment and the composition of the likely electorate favor Governor Romney.”
(Excerpt) Read more at weeklystandard.com ...
“These are the droids you’re looking for.” :)
THIS is the thread where you post that chart showing Battleground’s past accuracy.
Wow, Politico headlines the Obama favorable, but Weekly Standard goes with the “Extremely Likely” pushing Romney over the top.
I s’pose that numbers are what you want them to mean, no more, no less.
Uh...52-47 puts some blue states in play that no one is talking about not just Ohio and PA.
JoMa
To clear up confusion... Battleground has historically done both a tracking poll as well as a vote projection based on its polls. Here’s a link to their past projections since 1992. Judge for yourself:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/11-4-ballot%2Bballot-prediction-rcp.pdf
Again with the 47 percent!
Again with the 47 percent!
So the toe sucker is right (Dick Morris)
This begins to look better
Ed Goeas is right - this is 2008 but its a “wave” election in reverse.
The GOP should expand its margins in the House and take over the Senate also.
Wow, that’s an interesting chart. :)
So this TWS article is where Brit Hume got the R+5 from! Needless to say I am confused about the Battleground Poll showing O+1, and this TWS article. Can you provide some clarity?
I have to admit the commentary by Ed Goeas is encouraging. As well I liked what Karl Rove had to say on FNS.
Is this the FINAL “vote election model” for 2012 by Battleground? And is is for both Goeas and Lake? The 2008 version shows predictions by each pollster. Lastly, the projections are whole numbers in the weekly Standard article, but carried out to tenths of a percent in the chart.
i assume the link is for “vote projections”...until i read the footnote about their tracking poll being accurate...bear with me: does the table refer to vote projections or tracking poll?
Battleground shows Obama ahead in early voting - but it also shows those likely to vote favor Romney 53-44.
Does that sound like a close election to you? With that margin, it won’t be.
He’s basically ignoring the horse race numbers and examining the internal data. That’s how he comes up with his projections. It is basically a prediction, but his track record speaks for itself.
bttt
We’ve examined the internal data on FR for the past month and it does not look good for O. His key numbers are underwater and he’s fading with key demographics. That brings us to the main point.
The MSM keeps calling it a horse race but reality says its going to be a big win for Romney. If Goeas is wrong, he’ll have to eat crow next week.
I’d still trust him over Nate Silver any day.
>> THIS is the thread where you post that chart showing Battleground’s past accuracy.
ROFL
Battleground has a great record in their predictions except in 2000 when it was razor thin and Bush slipped in the last weekend with the DUI news. We'll see. It all hinges on GOTV.
I’m sure the GOP learned its lesson from 2008 when it was out-organized and out-hustled by the Democrats.
Its not taking the election for granted, of that you can be sure.
I believe you were told repeatedly on your Eeyore thread that the poll you posted was not current.
How hard is that to understand?
He was correct, but this is something entirely different.
Not to mention that the candidate was somebody nobody gave a crap about...
Its where I’ve seen this race for a while a complete reversal of the scores in 2008.
2008 Obama 52.6 McCain 46.4
20112 Romney 53 Obama 46 This is where i think it is at, problem for Obama is with that spread, he loses a lot of blue states in the process.
Yup.
I think it’ll probably be 54-44-1%. Obama is going to get less than 47% because of his soft support and Romney is going to do better than the polls predict - I think they are off by 2+.
It looks like all the Democratic gains from 2006 and 2008 will be wiped out with this election.
Slowly the light is coming through.
Isn’t there a poll from this same group that just called O leading 49 to 48 UP three points from last week? So confused.
well its the usual, most pollsters overestimate dems by 2% and underestimate GOP by 2%, so probably yup its in that ball park.
“but his track record speaks for itself.”
Yes Arthurio, that’s what I was trying to say earlier, but many people were dismissing him on the other thread because of the confusion over the “horse race number”
...I’m sure you agree that Ed Goeas is to be included on the respected list?... and I predict many will refer to that chart in the coming days :)
In what swing states is Sandy most likely to effect Obama’s Early Vote efforts?
Will this be the Battleground Poll’s final projection?
Pennsylvania, NH, Virginia, will certainly hit them in NJ, Northeast of Ohio maybe.
I wonder if this is part of that momentum? (I still think his decision was absolutely the worst.) Be that as it may, I like what I see.
I don’t think PA has early voting. I’m unsure about NJ and NH though.
I saw Rove yesterday on FNS. I thought Juan Williams was gonna start crying.
this is so devestating for obama, that if any of you are inclined to believe he is going to pull something purely devious, now would be the time to worry.
Ping
Juan was trying to tell Karl that he didn’t know what he was talking about as Karl explained early voting.
Juan said Ryan would ncampaign only in the south so Romney could woo mooderates.. I just saw a clip from Ryan in Ohio yesterday..Juan was misinformed..and he was shouting this!
He was embarrasing himself.
I would not put it past the dems to try and postpone election or extend voting due to hurricane
Leftist freaks seem to hate that number, not just because they’ve been called out on it, but also because they wish it was higher — more American slaves to their agenda.
To finish my thought- dems will be screaming that storm dis-enfranchised voters- why is it that only democrats are ever dis-enfranchised??
Cover of Newsweek Nov. 3, 1980. Reagan and Carter running neck and neck.
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