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New Poll Projects: Romney 52, Obama 47
Weekly Standard ^

Posted on 10/29/2012 2:29:01 AM PDT by Arthurio

The bipartisan Battleground Poll, in its “vote election model,” is projecting that Mitt Romney will defeat President Obama 52 percent to 47 percent. The poll also found that Romney has an even greater advantage among middle class voters, 52 percent to 45 percent.

While Obama can close the gap with a strong voter turnout effort, “reports from the field would indicate that not to be the case, and Mitt Romney may well be heading to a decisive victory,” says pollster Ed Goeas.

Should Romney win by 5 percentage points, it would increase Republican chances of gaining control of the Senate. His coattails would help elect GOP Senate candidates in Virginia, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. “Republicans are now certain to hold the House,” Goeas said, “regardless of how the presidential race turns out.”

The poll’s election model takes into account variables including voter intensity, age, and education, and voters who are certain in their vote. The race “remains very close in the surface,” Goeas said, “but the political environment and the composition of the likely electorate favor Governor Romney.”

(Excerpt) Read more at weeklystandard.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; battleground
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1 posted on 10/29/2012 2:29:08 AM PDT by Arthurio
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To: Arthurio; profit_guy

“These are the droids you’re looking for.” :)


2 posted on 10/29/2012 2:30:08 AM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: SoFloFreeper; profit_guy

THIS is the thread where you post that chart showing Battleground’s past accuracy.


3 posted on 10/29/2012 2:31:23 AM PDT by Arthurio
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To: Arthurio

4 posted on 10/29/2012 2:32:31 AM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: SoFloFreeper

Wow, Politico headlines the Obama favorable, but Weekly Standard goes with the “Extremely Likely” pushing Romney over the top.

I s’pose that numbers are what you want them to mean, no more, no less.


5 posted on 10/29/2012 2:32:31 AM PDT by plangent
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To: plangent

6 posted on 10/29/2012 2:34:58 AM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: Arthurio

Uh...52-47 puts some blue states in play that no one is talking about not just Ohio and PA.

JoMa


7 posted on 10/29/2012 2:35:48 AM PDT by joma89
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To: All

To clear up confusion... Battleground has historically done both a tracking poll as well as a vote projection based on its polls. Here’s a link to their past projections since 1992. Judge for yourself:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/11-4-ballot%2Bballot-prediction-rcp.pdf


8 posted on 10/29/2012 2:35:56 AM PDT by Arthurio
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To: Arthurio

9 posted on 10/29/2012 2:36:20 AM PDT by hattend (Firearms and ammunition...the only growing industries under the Obama regime.)
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To: Arthurio

Again with the 47 percent!


10 posted on 10/29/2012 2:36:59 AM PDT by tellw
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To: Arthurio

Again with the 47 percent!


11 posted on 10/29/2012 2:37:11 AM PDT by tellw
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To: Arthurio

So the toe sucker is right (Dick Morris)


12 posted on 10/29/2012 2:37:21 AM PDT by DeaconRed (With GODS help, we will be correcting a Major Error on November 6th.)
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To: plangent

13 posted on 10/29/2012 2:37:57 AM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: Arthurio

This begins to look better


14 posted on 10/29/2012 2:41:15 AM PDT by Fai Mao
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To: Arthurio

Ed Goeas is right - this is 2008 but its a “wave” election in reverse.

The GOP should expand its margins in the House and take over the Senate also.


15 posted on 10/29/2012 2:41:33 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved FrieGrnd Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Arthurio

Wow, that’s an interesting chart. :)

So this TWS article is where Brit Hume got the R+5 from! Needless to say I am confused about the Battleground Poll showing O+1, and this TWS article. Can you provide some clarity?

I have to admit the commentary by Ed Goeas is encouraging. As well I liked what Karl Rove had to say on FNS.


16 posted on 10/29/2012 2:42:08 AM PDT by profit_guy
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To: All

Is this the FINAL “vote election model” for 2012 by Battleground? And is is for both Goeas and Lake? The 2008 version shows predictions by each pollster. Lastly, the projections are whole numbers in the weekly Standard article, but carried out to tenths of a percent in the chart.


17 posted on 10/29/2012 2:47:06 AM PDT by BushMeister ("We are a nation that has a government - not the other way around." --Ronald Reagan)
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To: Arthurio

i assume the link is for “vote projections”...until i read the footnote about their tracking poll being accurate...bear with me: does the table refer to vote projections or tracking poll?


18 posted on 10/29/2012 2:47:12 AM PDT by derulz
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To: profit_guy

Battleground shows Obama ahead in early voting - but it also shows those likely to vote favor Romney 53-44.

Does that sound like a close election to you? With that margin, it won’t be.


19 posted on 10/29/2012 2:48:14 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved FrieGrnd Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: profit_guy

He’s basically ignoring the horse race numbers and examining the internal data. That’s how he comes up with his projections. It is basically a prediction, but his track record speaks for itself.


20 posted on 10/29/2012 2:49:11 AM PDT by Arthurio
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To: Arthurio

bttt


21 posted on 10/29/2012 2:50:56 AM PDT by 1035rep
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To: Arthurio

We’ve examined the internal data on FR for the past month and it does not look good for O. His key numbers are underwater and he’s fading with key demographics. That brings us to the main point.

The MSM keeps calling it a horse race but reality says its going to be a big win for Romney. If Goeas is wrong, he’ll have to eat crow next week.

I’d still trust him over Nate Silver any day.


22 posted on 10/29/2012 2:53:50 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved FrieGrnd Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Arthurio

>> THIS is the thread where you post that chart showing Battleground’s past accuracy.

ROFL


23 posted on 10/29/2012 2:53:50 AM PDT by Nervous Tick ("You can ignore reality, but you can't ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.")
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To: Arthurio
This must be the "Romney by 5 in Battleground" Hume was referring to on Sunday.

Battleground has a great record in their predictions except in 2000 when it was razor thin and Bush slipped in the last weekend with the DUI news. We'll see. It all hinges on GOTV.

24 posted on 10/29/2012 2:54:44 AM PDT by newzjunkey (Osama's dead... and so is our ambassador - Coulter.)
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To: newzjunkey

I’m sure the GOP learned its lesson from 2008 when it was out-organized and out-hustled by the Democrats.

Its not taking the election for granted, of that you can be sure.


25 posted on 10/29/2012 2:57:20 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved FrieGrnd Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: profit_guy

I believe you were told repeatedly on your Eeyore thread that the poll you posted was not current.

How hard is that to understand?


26 posted on 10/29/2012 2:58:18 AM PDT by dforest
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To: dforest

He was correct, but this is something entirely different.


27 posted on 10/29/2012 2:59:49 AM PDT by Arthurio
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To: goldstategop
I’m sure the GOP learned its lesson from 2008 when it was out-organized and out-hustled by the Democrats.

Not to mention that the candidate was somebody nobody gave a crap about...

28 posted on 10/29/2012 3:02:00 AM PDT by okie01 (THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA; Ignorance on parade.)
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To: Arthurio

Its where I’ve seen this race for a while a complete reversal of the scores in 2008.

2008 Obama 52.6 McCain 46.4

20112 Romney 53 Obama 46 This is where i think it is at, problem for Obama is with that spread, he loses a lot of blue states in the process.


29 posted on 10/29/2012 3:03:44 AM PDT by sunmars
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To: sunmars

Yup.

I think it’ll probably be 54-44-1%. Obama is going to get less than 47% because of his soft support and Romney is going to do better than the polls predict - I think they are off by 2+.

It looks like all the Democratic gains from 2006 and 2008 will be wiped out with this election.


30 posted on 10/29/2012 3:14:34 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved FrieGrnd Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Arthurio

Slowly the light is coming through.


31 posted on 10/29/2012 3:15:52 AM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: Arthurio

             

32 posted on 10/29/2012 3:23:12 AM PDT by tomkat
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To: Arthurio

Isn’t there a poll from this same group that just called O leading 49 to 48 UP three points from last week? So confused.


33 posted on 10/29/2012 3:26:23 AM PDT by snarkytart
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To: goldstategop

well its the usual, most pollsters overestimate dems by 2% and underestimate GOP by 2%, so probably yup its in that ball park.


34 posted on 10/29/2012 3:26:56 AM PDT by sunmars
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To: Arthurio

“but his track record speaks for itself.”

Yes Arthurio, that’s what I was trying to say earlier, but many people were dismissing him on the other thread because of the confusion over the “horse race number”

...I’m sure you agree that Ed Goeas is to be included on the respected list?... and I predict many will refer to that chart in the coming days :)


35 posted on 10/29/2012 3:27:54 AM PDT by profit_guy
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To: goldstategop
I suspect the storm will diminish O’s GOTV efforts as his pleas for early voting to the less committed depends highly on his operatives all but pulling the lever. The Rats will hibernate this week and early voting will take a big hit.
36 posted on 10/29/2012 3:28:58 AM PDT by JIM O
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To: JIM O; Arthurio

In what swing states is Sandy most likely to effect Obama’s Early Vote efforts?


37 posted on 10/29/2012 3:39:17 AM PDT by profit_guy
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To: Arthurio

Will this be the Battleground Poll’s final projection?


38 posted on 10/29/2012 3:39:41 AM PDT by 9YearLurker
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To: profit_guy

Pennsylvania, NH, Virginia, will certainly hit them in NJ, Northeast of Ohio maybe.


39 posted on 10/29/2012 3:40:55 AM PDT by sunmars
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To: goldstategop
I keep thinking of the decision that Justice Roberts made last summer when he did not throw out Obama-care and felt the voters should decide.

I wonder if this is part of that momentum? (I still think his decision was absolutely the worst.) Be that as it may, I like what I see.

40 posted on 10/29/2012 3:42:37 AM PDT by Northern Yankee (Where Liberty dwells, there is my Country. - Benjamin Franklin)
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To: sunmars

I don’t think PA has early voting. I’m unsure about NJ and NH though.


41 posted on 10/29/2012 3:43:56 AM PDT by profit_guy
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To: profit_guy

I saw Rove yesterday on FNS. I thought Juan Williams was gonna start crying.


42 posted on 10/29/2012 3:44:07 AM PDT by Northern Yankee (Where Liberty dwells, there is my Country. - Benjamin Franklin)
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To: All

this is so devestating for obama, that if any of you are inclined to believe he is going to pull something purely devious, now would be the time to worry.


43 posted on 10/29/2012 3:47:59 AM PDT by willywill
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To: Arthurio

Ping


44 posted on 10/29/2012 3:48:04 AM PDT by Tax-Killer
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To: Northern Yankee

Juan was trying to tell Karl that he didn’t know what he was talking about as Karl explained early voting.


45 posted on 10/29/2012 3:48:39 AM PDT by profit_guy
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To: Northern Yankee

Juan said Ryan would ncampaign only in the south so Romney could woo mooderates.. I just saw a clip from Ryan in Ohio yesterday..Juan was misinformed..and he was shouting this!

He was embarrasing himself.


46 posted on 10/29/2012 3:50:00 AM PDT by MEG33 (O Lord, Guide Our Nation)
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To: willywill

I would not put it past the dems to try and postpone election or extend voting due to hurricane


47 posted on 10/29/2012 3:50:13 AM PDT by Nailbiter
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To: tellw

Leftist freaks seem to hate that number, not just because they’ve been called out on it, but also because they wish it was higher — more American slaves to their agenda.


48 posted on 10/29/2012 3:52:03 AM PDT by treetopsandroofs (Had FDR been GOP, there would have been no World Wars, just "The Great War" and "Roosevelt's Wars".)
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To: willywill

To finish my thought- dems will be screaming that storm dis-enfranchised voters- why is it that only democrats are ever dis-enfranchised??


49 posted on 10/29/2012 3:52:41 AM PDT by Nailbiter
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To: hattend

Cover of Newsweek Nov. 3, 1980. Reagan and Carter running neck and neck.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1980-NOVEMBER-3-NEWSWEEK-MAGAZINE-JIMMY-CARTER-RONALD-REAGAN-II-3016-/370556837234?pt=Magazines&hash=item5646e89d72


50 posted on 10/29/2012 3:53:00 AM PDT by Atlantan
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