Skip to comments.Rasmussen Daily: MON: 10/29: R: 49 O:47 Obama -12%
Posted on 10/29/2012 6:31:40 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
Daily Presidential Tracking Poll The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 47%. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate,...
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
4 ahead with Independents, 8 behind with women
Total approve: 49 Approval Index : -12
Right Track/Wrong Track: 38/57
HOWEVER, Rasmussen will release a poll today showing the Governor AHEAD in Ohio: 50:48! This is the first major national poll to show the Governor at the 50% mark and ahead in Ohio
NOTE: Many of the details above are internals and not available at the public link above
Rasmussen poll in Ohio has Romney up 2, 50-48. Last week was tied at 48. R up 3 among certain to vote. Has O up 26 among early voters (32%).
Zero can't get above 47%
Mixed news. Tightening nationally, ahead in OH.
Unless this is the “weekend effect”, Benghazi has had no effect on the national polls. The corrupt MSM has done its job well.
Weekend. Happens the majority of the time, I still don’t like it though. I need to see Romney at 50%. Come on Ras, people changing their minds THIS late? pfffffffffff
Most Americans have no idea what a "Benghazi" is, much less know why it's important.
4 ahead with independents?
Romney is killing with independents.
Boy Rasmussen’s independent number for Romney sure makes big fluctuations.
the story just hit the hot point the last four days. These rolling day polls take a few days to pick up on any movement.
Agreed. It’s an issue for people who care about the country. Most Americans haven’t a concept of what worsens and improves our lot as a country, especially when it comes to international affairs. They simply care about their next paycheck.
I bet it does because of where he samples from across the country. In certain places there are more indy’s who lean Dem and other GOP. I bet this sample reflects this.
Agreed.. the Indy number sure does seem volatile.
I think, at this point.... it’s clear that Romney did not help himself by giving Obama a free pass on Benghazi. He missed a chance to move that story UP, even higher in public interest.
Not pushing it, IMO, made Romney look a little weak, and hurt his numbers a little.
Here is Scott’s commentary
I don’t like these internals at all. Also, the sample 39/36/25 is not adding up either. I want to see where the numbers are at mid week.
Romney’s only up 4 with Indies (was up 23 on Saturday). And only has 88% of base?
Historically (even McCain), R candidates get 93% of Republican base. And in this election, it should be even higher.
Also, if you look at crosstabs, Romney’s numbers add up to 50 and Obama’s add up to 48.
Romney: Certain (46) Likely (2) Lean (2) (50)
Obama: Certain (44) Likely (2) Lean (2) (48)
Yet Rasmussen published the top line as 49-47.
What we can assume is that Benghazi has had ZERO impact, unbelievably.
Hi, I’ve signed up for Rasmussen Platinum. Where on his site do I go to get the information about the new Ohio poll?
This is going to be the longest week of my life. Independents tightening? What happened over the weekend for that to happen?
If undecideds break 50/50, Romney wins 50.5-48.5 (1% other) nationally and in OH. I can live with that. Would prefer Romney at least at 52%.
the usual dem voters at home. Its not unusual for weekend polling and also random polling sometimes hits way more dems than GOP at weekends.
I believe Romney rightly stayed out of the Benghazi fray. We care about it, but the average person doesn’t. They care about their paycheck and when is it Friday. He’s staying on message: jobs, economy, and the debt. Unfortunately, big issues like Benghazi are either too complex or too foreign to the average voter’s (especially, the idiotic “undecided” voter’s) own lot in life.
We need a Swift-boats type or Special Ops for America PAC to get ads out with this.
Well it was 49-47 last Monday as well so maybe it ticks back to 50 tomorrow but that Independent gap is throwing me.
Good point. As far as the indys, in Ras poll they can really fluctuate big time from day to day.
Click on the Platinum tab AFTER you login
Once in, you can see a left hand menu. You can click on the Presidential Numbers there
I agree with you. Romney may have helped himself with Benghazi but could have really shot himself in the foot if the indecent wasn’t framed right and the media would have been up Romneys ass in a big way.He knows damn well that the media will cover up the truth on this story until after the elections.Its to easy for Mitt to look political on this.
I hope FOX keeps pounding the issue all week, its got to sink in somewhere.
In the last few weeks the Rasmussen and Gallup polls have shifted between Romney 52% and Romney 48%.
A 4% shift in a 130 million electorate represents 5 million voters.
Does anyone think that at this late stage 5 million voters, or even 1 million voters, are running around changing their mind every day? people with that mindset are the ignorant buffoons that we see on Leno’s Jaywalkers segments who don’t even vote unless it’s on the way to their tatoo parlor or SEIU meeting.
Polsters are now just covering their bets so that no matter the outcome, they can say “it was too close to call but within the margin of error” or “everything broke to so-and-so’s way in the last week”.
Simple...don’t believe the independents number.
Right. The fact is that an incumbent at 47% is a bad place.
Obama is polling at 46.7% in the RCP average.
That spells a sure loser.
Very Good News from Battleground , who I believe was second most accurate int 2008 and is bi partisan run by one Dem and One Rep has Romney up 52-47 link below
Simple...don’t believe the independents number.
Whoops, wrong thread. Never mind.
Like I have said before Rasmussen is scared to death that the liberal media will not like him and therefore not mention his poll if Romney is too far ahead. Rasmussen has always been that way. He knows the race is will not be close, but does not have the nerve to say it. And this is the poll that Fox, especially loudmouth O’Reilly will be talking about today, not the Battleground Poll that says Romney in a landslide. 10 to one says O’Reilly starts off his show today saying the race is tightening and this Rasmussen Poll proves it. He’ll then parade out Karl Rove to say the race is not even close, then O’Reilly will argue with him and say if Rasmussen says it’s close, then it is.
O’Reilly is as predictable as the sun coming up.
Could be the Mourdock rape comments are causing some Indies to drift back over to the dark side.
I don’t really think that is the case, but it is at least a possibility.
It appears this is twisted due to early voting numbers and a weird independent sample.
Don’t like being below 50 though needless to say.
As mentioned up thread this was the same exact number last Monday then Romney ticked up to 50 throughout the week.
Rasmussen Reports - Senate Balance of Power
Held/Safe Republican 43
Leans Republican 4
Leans Democrat 4
Held/Safe Democrat 43
At this point, an OBJECTIVE assessment would conclude Ryan will be very busy breaking ties in the Senate.
Looks like 50/50 to me!
Super Interesting News from Rasmussen!
He just released an poll to his members that is a 7 day poll.
D+4 Poll D/R/I = 40/36/24
Taken from Oct 22-28
This is his daily 7 day sample at 500 LV daily
So 3500 people
Congress Republican/Congress Democrat: 46/43
Gov Romney/President Obama: 50/47 (expanded sample)
The Governor leads independents by 13
President total approval: 48
Presidential Approval Index: -12
Right Track/Wrong Track: 39/57
Rasmussen now using D+2 model, no longer D+3. D39/R37/I24. (Was D39/R36/I25).
Repubs 88% * .37 = 32.56
Dems 13% * .39 = 5.07
Indies 49% * .24 = 11.76
Total = 49.39 (49%)
Dems 85% * .39 = 33.15
Repubs 9% * .37 = 3.33
Indies 45% * .24 = 10.80
Total = 47.28 (47%)
Nice work NHWingUT
Hmm! So it means that the Governor did not have a good polling day on either Saturday or Sunday
So, two things:
1. Either Hurricane Sandy reduced the number of R respondents in the East Coast as they prepared to leave town or bunker down
2. His Sat and Sun samples rotated out to states that have a very D leaning populace
Yes. Definitely a couple of weak polling days for Romney. Not great for Obama but he did trend up a bit.
I think tomorrow it could be even closer as Friday’s good Romney day will fall off, leaving us with two solid Obama days (Sat-Sun) and whatever today brings.
I wonder if the storm is helping Obama, as he gets to play president. He broke into my TV several times yesterday and today, with the governor of NH and Mass (both Dems) thanking Obama about 10 times during each presser.
It will be interesting to see what Gallup delivers today.
I agree. From my calculations Romney did have a good polling day Friday so we should not be surprised if Obama ticks up to 48 tomorrow. If it stays the same, 49 / 47 this would actually be good news for Romney, since the saturday/sunday polling was likely better for Obama and means Romney’s good day Friday was replaced with a good day Monday(today).