Posted on 10/29/2012 7:38:58 AM PDT by BCrago66
The race for Ohio’s Electoral College votes remains very close, but now Mitt Romney now has a two-point advantage.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Ohio Voters shows Romney with 50% support to President Obama’s 48%. One percent (1%) likes some other candidate, while another one percent (1%) remains undecided.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
Rush Limbaugh predicted that as we move closer to the election, polls will shift to show more realistic numbers. Romney has been in the lead all along but poll numbers were fudged to make it look as if Obama was winning.
Good, then I was more or less correct. Sure, the turnout is not known, but only 3.2 millions or so is a bit on the low side (to get 1 million = 32%). :-)
I did a back of the envelope calculation of the state of the race if one corrected Ras poll for the oversampling of early voters (eg ca 19% assuming 1 million of expected 5.4 millions). The outcome was R 53% - O 45%.
O’s figure is lower than the 47% we all know is the true one, so this is of course an overestimation of Romney’s lead.
:-)
I am not good at providing links and such. In a google search it says that there is a business week article that states that of the voters who have voted in Ohio this year, that 45% of the registered democrats had voted. One would expect that virtually all democrats would have voted for Obama. If approx a third of all who will vote have voted early in and almost half the democrats have voted, it would seem that this bodes very well for Romney. ??
Hmm, tricky question - too many unknowns.
But let us assume that D makes up 35% of the voters, then 45% x 35% is about 16% which is 50% of the early voters.
If we then assume that I makes up 30% of the votes, and only a third of them has voted early and furthermore that they vote 55 - 45 for Romney, then they will make up 30% x 45%x 33% of the D vote in the early sample = 14%
D: 50% + 14 = 64% which is pretty close to what RAS got in the sample of the early voters.
Of course looking at the whole picture with a GOP 35% and the I’s splitting 55-45 in favour of R it looks good!
The DUmmies are back to hating Rasmussen again after their brief love affair from a month ago.
This DUmmie THREAD posted a little while ago jubilantly cited the Rasmussen poll as Obama beating Romney by 48 to 40 but then the author had to self-delete when it was pointed out the DUmmie misread 50 for Romney as only 40. And this clown really was a DUmmie for his inability to read.
NOTE TO ALL:
Rasmussen will be in Fox News in about a minute, to talk about Ohio poll & other matters.
Correction: Not Rasmussen himself, but a Fox News reporter talking about the poll.
Does anyone have a link to the Reuters article Rush was talking about on his show today that claims that Ohio is not really that important?
Haven’t been able to find it. TIA!!
FYI... The DUmmies are doing Freudenschade victory dances over lesser known (and often outdated) polls showing Obama winning just about everywhere. Of course, they don’t mention either Rasmussen or Gallup.
This Ohio poll by Rasmussen should be trusted. Go Romney , looks good! Romney 50% Obama 48%
This proves All the liberals polls showing Obama ahead were fake.
every person I know who has voted early has voted for Romney,so I don;t know about mostly the left votes early
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