Polls showing Romney down always show up in breaking news or front page news. At least give this the same visibility. Trying to depress FR I’m noticing
This is encouraging. Let me add some more encouragement to your day.
We all know that the trends look great for Romney, but we’re all concerned about these stubborn Ohio polls that we all suspect are skewed. But, there are a lot of them showing Obama in the lead, and that’s discouraging. So, understanding that everything else looks good, let’s see why these polls really say...because they just don’t seem to add up to what we see elsewhere.
I’ve taken 5 polls for which I could get concrete data. These are the recent polls by ARG, PPP, Gravis, CNN and Survey USA. Here’s what I found.
They oversampled democrats by 7 on average
They gave Obama a 2.8% lead over Romney
This means that Obama MUST HAVE at least a Democrat plus 4.2% better turnout just to break even. In 2008 is was about 5%
BUT, THAT’S NOT THE WHOLE STORY:
They showed an average independent advantage for Romney by +8. The average percent of independents making up the total voters was just over 25%, so basically, the advantage to Romney is +2.
They also showed an average party-line plus cross-over vote (Democrats voting for Romney) by a 2.6% advantage.
So, this means that these polls show that Democrats must have an 8.8% Democrat advantage JUST TO BREAK EVEN.
OK, so you’re still thinking...but, there are so many polls that favor Obama. To that I reply...these calculations are taken only from these same polls that are bothersome to you. Look at all the other indicators which show Romney doing far better. For example, Republicans almost always do better than the national average in Ohio. Romney’s above 50% in some major polls. Swing states are overwhelmingly supporting Romney. There’s so much more. Why let these petty little polls bother you? Have faith, my friends.