Posted on 10/29/2012 7:46:06 AM PDT by ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Ohio Voters shows Romney with 50% support to President Obama’s 48%. One percent (1%) likes some other candidate, while another one percent (1%) remains undecided.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
ping
The trend is our friend!
They say state polls lag. This is good news.
Sometimes Rasmussen seems nervous about certain races. He never did a real poll on the Scott Brown-Mahtha Coakley race.
Encouraging.
Interesting internals in the poll. Rasmussen reports that 32% of the expected electorate has already voted and Obama has a large lead among those early voters:
“Nearly one-in-three Ohio voters (32%) have already cast their ballots. Obama leads 62% to 36% among these voters.”
However, on an earlier thread (that was eventually pulled because it lacked a link to the source) Ravi noted that one expects about 5.4 to 5.6 million votes in Ohio. Until now total early voting and absentees only accounts for 1 million votes, ie at most 18.5%.
Thus, Rasmussen’s poll is, unless the turn-out this year will be lower than 3.2 millions, highly skewed with respect to those who have voted early.
Given that part of the sample gives Obama a large lead, the conclusion must be that (everything else the same) a correct sample would have shown Romney in an even larger lead.
PS: I quoted Ravi’s figures from memory. Hopefully he will come by and correct me if necessary.
Super Interesting News from Rasmussen!
He just released an poll to his members that is a 7 day poll.
Some highlights!!
D+4 Poll D/R/I = 40/36/24
Taken from Oct 22-28
This is his daily 7 day sample at 500 LV daily
So 3500 people
White/Black/Other 74/13/13
Congress Republican/Congress Democrat: 46/43
Gov Romney/President Obama: 50/47 (expanded sample)
The Governor leads independents by 13
President total approval: 48
Presidential Approval Index: -12
Right Track/Wrong Track: 39/57
Obama has a huge lead among those that already voted, so his strategy will be to suppress turnout on election day. Ideally he would prevent every single Ohioan from voting Nov 6th.. but that’s not going to happen, so expect polling delays, ‘technical difficulties’ , power outages, malfunctioning voting machines, missing rosters..etc
And a back of the envelope re-calculation of the Ohio poll, given that ca 19% not 32% of the voters have so far cast early votes, gives Romney 53% and Obama 45%.
As of 10/27, 1.6 million voters have requested absentee ballots. 1 million have submitted ballots/early voted in toto. I expect turnout to be 5.6 to 5.7 million. Others may disagree. So 1/5.6 is 18%. 1.6/5.6 is 28.5%. So both numbers are less than the 32% who told rasmussen they VOTED. 1.6 million are ABOUT TO VOTE of which 1 million have actually VOTED. Key distinction.
I see we have two ohio rasmussen threads going. The moree, the merrier.
Maybe, but he would rather be right and protect his reputation than be wrong and ruin it. A consistently wrong pollster will run out of clients very quickly.
I’m doing my best to remain cautiously optimistic, but all of this good news is just very, GOOD.
Have these early votes been counted, or did they just assume that the registered demean that voted early, voted for Obama?
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