Skip to comments.In U.S., 15% of Registered Voters Have Already Cast Ballots (Romney leads 52 to 45 per Gallup!)
Posted on 10/29/2012 4:24:03 PM PDT by tatown
Romney currently leads Obama 52% to 45% among voters who say they have already cast their ballots. However, that is comparable to Romney's 51% to 46% lead among all likely voters in Gallup's Oct. 22-28 tracking polling. At the same time, the race is tied at 49% among those who have not yet voted but still intend to vote early, suggesting these voters could cause the race to tighten. However, Romney leads 51% to 45% among the much larger group of voters who plan to vote on Election Day, Nov. 6.
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
So much for early voting helping Dems.
I am not buying all the early voting results, First it was Obama blowing out numbers, now it’s Romney, at the end of the day it is a survey of people who could be blowing smoke, since nobody that I am aware of can share actual results of early votes until election night count me skeptical.
Praying that America has enough of Obozo and his anti-God agenda.
I voted about a month ago.
1) The Obama voters of 08 aren't there. This would be busloads of blacks, inner city types. They come in in gaggles. No one is seeing this. A week ago, Obama was here in Dayton, and the Ds had 27 busloads ready to take people to early vote. Ds had three floors ready with tables and people to help them fill out the forms. They expected THOUSANDS . . . got 300.
2) I am told that the Obama voters who ARE coming in are regular "election day" voters, so that the Ds are cannibalizing their election day turnout.
3) Many of the early voters are Rs. My former chairman said it appeared to be 10-15% of all voters this time, as opposed to only 5% early voting Rs last time. But Romney did NOT try to get out "regular" voters to early vote, but rather went after "low propensity voters."
4) I was a little concerned about the Montgomery Co. number, which was up 4000 from 08, but it appears we have a lot of indies. If you assume the indies break 6% to Romney (not much according to most polls), then I put the Montgomery Co. early voter % at 56-44%D. At 12%, that is eight points below what Obama won in 08, when he won the county by about four. In other words, Romney is up, perhaps four, perhaps even more if the indies break harder.
Caveat: this is only one county.
I detest early voting as it invites fraud. For those voting early, be advised that there is a good chance your vote is being changed to a vote for Obama.
Thank you for your real life information, that is the data I find interesting and helpful. Fortunately (or unfortunately for identifying trends) I live in suburban Kansas City on KS side so no issue with the state. I will say MO was very tight McCain win in 2012, not even close this year, Obama not even putting much in for ads, just a horrific Senate race on the Missouri side. Definitely can tell you much less Obama stickers, yard signs etc. in greater KC area.
When someone votes early, that is reflected in the poll listing or books that election officers use to see if a person is registered and if they have voted. These listings are updated daily and given to the parties, which use them to identify voters who haven't voted yet and get them out to the polls.
Just voted today and I have to tell you there was a steady stream of people coming and going from the voting building. I live in a very staunch RAT part of Texas and it’s scary when you see so many folk voting and you know EXACTLY who they are voting for. Don’t underestimate Obumler’s voting block...they will turn out and what I saw they ARE voting. WE HAVE TO OUT NUMBER THEM...so start encouraging folk on our side to VOTE. I hope this lights a fire under our feet and GTVO!!
Just wanted to say thanks for your on-the-ground analysis, LS.
> For those voting early, be advised that there is a good chance your vote is being changed to a vote for Obama.
And this verifies their own statistical model. Which means, Gallup and Rasmussen = reliable polls, and PPP and others are pure garbage.
Since Rats tend to vote early and Pubbies on election day, i think you can be safe to say that Obama will declare a national emergency and cancel elections due to Sandy.
Nate Silver at his computer...