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In U.S., 15% of Registered Voters Have Already Cast Ballots (Romney leads 52 to 45 per Gallup!)
Gallup ^ | 10/29 | Gallup

Posted on 10/29/2012 4:24:03 PM PDT by tatown

Romney currently leads Obama 52% to 45% among voters who say they have already cast their ballots. However, that is comparable to Romney's 51% to 46% lead among all likely voters in Gallup's Oct. 22-28 tracking polling. At the same time, the race is tied at 49% among those who have not yet voted but still intend to vote early, suggesting these voters could cause the race to tighten. However, Romney leads 51% to 45% among the much larger group of voters who plan to vote on Election Day, Nov. 6.

(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; gallup
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Very good news it seems.
1 posted on 10/29/2012 4:24:03 PM PDT by tatown
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To: LS; SoftwareEngineer; Perdogg; nhwingut; HamiltonJay; Ravi

Ping


2 posted on 10/29/2012 4:25:17 PM PDT by tatown (Obama was right, it was a 'one term proposition')
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To: tatown

So much for early voting helping Dems.


3 posted on 10/29/2012 4:32:20 PM PDT by MeanGreen2008
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To: tatown

I am not buying all the early voting results, First it was Obama blowing out numbers, now it’s Romney, at the end of the day it is a survey of people who could be blowing smoke, since nobody that I am aware of can share actual results of early votes until election night count me skeptical.


4 posted on 10/29/2012 4:33:22 PM PDT by shoedog
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To: tatown

Praying that America has enough of Obozo and his anti-God agenda.


5 posted on 10/29/2012 4:36:51 PM PDT by Blood of Tyrants (Never believe anything in politics until it has been officially denied.)
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To: tatown

I voted about a month ago.


6 posted on 10/29/2012 4:40:44 PM PDT by Mountain Bike Vomit Carnage (Have you hugged your garbage man today?)
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To: shoedog
No, no one is sure. But we have people at election hq in Dayton every day watching. We've seen a couple of things.

1) The Obama voters of 08 aren't there. This would be busloads of blacks, inner city types. They come in in gaggles. No one is seeing this. A week ago, Obama was here in Dayton, and the Ds had 27 busloads ready to take people to early vote. Ds had three floors ready with tables and people to help them fill out the forms. They expected THOUSANDS . . . got 300.

2) I am told that the Obama voters who ARE coming in are regular "election day" voters, so that the Ds are cannibalizing their election day turnout.

3) Many of the early voters are Rs. My former chairman said it appeared to be 10-15% of all voters this time, as opposed to only 5% early voting Rs last time. But Romney did NOT try to get out "regular" voters to early vote, but rather went after "low propensity voters."

4) I was a little concerned about the Montgomery Co. number, which was up 4000 from 08, but it appears we have a lot of indies. If you assume the indies break 6% to Romney (not much according to most polls), then I put the Montgomery Co. early voter % at 56-44%D. At 12%, that is eight points below what Obama won in 08, when he won the county by about four. In other words, Romney is up, perhaps four, perhaps even more if the indies break harder.

Caveat: this is only one county.

7 posted on 10/29/2012 4:40:59 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: tatown
The pic below shows this cool cat,

a Pallas's cat (aka manul) that lives in the Himalayas, about to go into the voting booth. He doesn't look very happy so I bet he voted Romney.
LOL!

Sneaky Cat Caught on Camera in Himalayas
8 posted on 10/29/2012 4:40:59 PM PDT by Jack Hydrazine (It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine!)
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To: Blood of Tyrants
Romney currently leads Obama 52% to 45% among voters who say they have already cast their ballots.

It looks like 52/46 to me.
9 posted on 10/29/2012 4:42:37 PM PDT by Signalman
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To: tatown

I detest early voting as it invites fraud. For those voting early, be advised that there is a good chance your vote is being changed to a vote for Obama.


10 posted on 10/29/2012 4:44:24 PM PDT by SamAdams76
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To: LS

Thank you for your real life information, that is the data I find interesting and helpful. Fortunately (or unfortunately for identifying trends) I live in suburban Kansas City on KS side so no issue with the state. I will say MO was very tight McCain win in 2012, not even close this year, Obama not even putting much in for ads, just a horrific Senate race on the Missouri side. Definitely can tell you much less Obama stickers, yard signs etc. in greater KC area.


11 posted on 10/29/2012 4:44:34 PM PDT by shoedog
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To: shoedog
You can estimate the numbers fairly easily. In states that have party affiliation, you can look at who voted early and use those numbers plus independents. In states that don't have party affiliation, you can look at past voting in primaries and other races and estimate from there.

When someone votes early, that is reflected in the poll listing or books that election officers use to see if a person is registered and if they have voted. These listings are updated daily and given to the parties, which use them to identify voters who haven't voted yet and get them out to the polls.

12 posted on 10/29/2012 4:53:57 PM PDT by kabar
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To: Mountain Bike Vomit Carnage

Just voted today and I have to tell you there was a steady stream of people coming and going from the voting building. I live in a very staunch RAT part of Texas and it’s scary when you see so many folk voting and you know EXACTLY who they are voting for. Don’t underestimate Obumler’s voting block...they will turn out and what I saw they ARE voting. WE HAVE TO OUT NUMBER THEM...so start encouraging folk on our side to VOTE. I hope this lights a fire under our feet and GTVO!!


13 posted on 10/29/2012 4:54:01 PM PDT by RoseofTexas
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To: LS

Just wanted to say thanks for your on-the-ground analysis, LS.


14 posted on 10/29/2012 4:54:21 PM PDT by TheBigB (I voted 4 Obama & all I got was this lousy t-shirt & 15 mins in the back of a Prius with Sandy Fluke)
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To: tatown
Seems like very good news to me, but did I read the internals saying more Republicans have voted early? Hopefully that shows more enthusiasm (and Dem crossovers) but I thought we're being told more Democrats have voted early? Just asking— are Democrats going to show up on election day and erase this lead? What about Ohio and CO? Aren't Dems up big there in early voting? We need swing states! Not trying to be a debbie downer, just throwing it out their to see what people think. If we are leading this much nationally in early voting, this is very good because I was concerned with people that voted before the debates and mittmentum had started regretting already voting for Obama!
15 posted on 10/29/2012 4:55:00 PM PDT by MacMattico
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To: SamAdams76

> For those voting early, be advised that there is a good chance your vote is being changed to a vote for Obama.

Excellent point.


16 posted on 10/29/2012 4:56:26 PM PDT by Jyotishi (Seeking the truth, a fact at a time.)
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To: tatown
Voted by absentee ballot this year. In 2008, my wife and I stood in line for three hours to vote on Election Day. Never again!



Genuflectimus non ad principem sed ad Principem Pacis!

Listen, O isles, unto me; and hearken, ye people, from far; The LORD hath called me from the womb; from the bowels of my mother hath he made mention of my name. (Isaiah 49:1 KJV)

17 posted on 10/29/2012 4:56:38 PM PDT by ConorMacNessa (HM/2 USN, 3/5 Marines RVN 1969 - St. Michael the Archangel defend us in Battle!)
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To: tatown

AWESOME NEWS!!!!

And this verifies their own statistical model. Which means, Gallup and Rasmussen = reliable polls, and PPP and others are pure garbage.

Since Rats tend to vote early and Pubbies on election day, i think you can be safe to say that Obama will declare a national emergency and cancel elections due to Sandy.


18 posted on 10/29/2012 4:59:52 PM PDT by tony777
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To: tatown
"Romney currently leads Obama 52% to 45% among voters who say they have already cast their ballots."


19 posted on 10/29/2012 5:00:28 PM PDT by Windflier (To anger a conservative, tell him a lie. To anger a liberal, tell him the truth.)
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To: tatown
no way, man, NATE SILVER has already said the election is pretty much in the bag for Obama. Don't worry 'bout those pesky voters...this election is decided by NATE SILVER.


Nate Silver at his computer...

20 posted on 10/29/2012 5:01:24 PM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: Mountain Bike Vomit Carnage

Just voted today and I have to tell you there was a steady stream of people going and coming from the voting building. I live in a very staunch RAT part of Texas and it’s scary when you see so many folk voting and you know EXACTLY who they are voting for. Don’t underestimate Obumber’s voting block...they will turn out and what I saw they ARE voting. WE HAVE TO OUT NUMBER THEM...so start encouraging folk on our side to VOTE. I hope this lights a fire under our feet and GTVO!!


21 posted on 10/29/2012 5:02:36 PM PDT by RoseofTexas
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To: tatown
"Romney leads 51% to 45% among the much larger group of voters who plan to vote on Election Day, Nov. 6."


22 posted on 10/29/2012 5:03:19 PM PDT by Windflier (To anger a conservative, tell him a lie. To anger a liberal, tell him the truth.)
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To: RoseofTexas

Just seen a report this weekend from a local Houston publication that shows McCain counties early voters are up 13% from 2008 while Obama areas are slightly down.


23 posted on 10/29/2012 5:07:57 PM PDT by tatown (Obama was right, it was a 'one term proposition')
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To: TheBigB

It’s been fun, although I’m math challenged so all the numbers are formidable. Romney was to have been here in Dayton tonight and I had front row seats-—would have been the third US president I saw-—Reagan, Bush (in the Oval Office), and Romney.


24 posted on 10/29/2012 5:08:31 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: shoedog
First it was Obama blowing out numbers, now it’s Romney, at the end of the day it is a survey of people who could be blowing smoke, since nobody that I am aware of can share actual results of early votes until election night. Count me skeptical.


25 posted on 10/29/2012 5:12:42 PM PDT by Windflier (To anger a conservative, tell him a lie. To anger a liberal, tell him the truth.)
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To: tony777
i think you can be safe to say that Obama will declare a national emergency and cancel elections due to Sandy.

Please stop repeating that paranoid, panty wetting delusion.

The POTUS does not have the power to cancel or postpone a national election. If he even tried, he'd likely spark the 2nd American Revolution, and cause the total dissolution of the US government.

Read your US Constitution and bone up on this. If that doesn't convince you, then bone up on gun sales over the last four years.

26 posted on 10/29/2012 5:20:35 PM PDT by Windflier (To anger a conservative, tell him a lie. To anger a liberal, tell him the truth.)
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To: tatown

I wonder how many of these early “Democrat” voters are actually pulling the lever for RR?

I don’t think we should assume that all of them are going to vote strictly by party affiliation.


27 posted on 10/29/2012 5:22:46 PM PDT by 2111USMC (aim small, miss small)
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To: MacMattico; RoseofTexas

CO R’s ahead by 2.5 %. For OH, I’ll post updates later tonite - we have definitely breached their early voting firewall by reducing their advantage. I can show you this.

Rose, i voted in tarrant county this weekend. You can vote in any county polling place. We happened to be in downtown on saturday and voted at a close to downtown location. High AA population. Anecdotal, but we were in and out in 10 minutes.


28 posted on 10/29/2012 5:24:19 PM PDT by Ravi
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To: tatown; Ravi; LS; nhwingut; Perdogg; InterceptPoint; ConservativeGuy; ConservativeInPA; ...

This poll is very interesting as the data is obviously collated from their daily samples that they use for the daily update

So, two things strike me as unusual about Gallup:

1. They are obviously quite willing to stick their neck out with the +5 Republican outcome in the final election. They are getting this due to not applying a screen. They must be pretty confident to go this route

2. They must be polling very heavily in certain regions on certain days. Nothing else can explain the huge shifts in Presidential approvals each day. However, some of you will argue that if the approvals shift so much, why does the race stay broadly stable. I would argue that shows the Independents and Democrats. People who are willing to say “Somewhat approve” about the President but when pushed into making a choice, they say “Governor Romney”. I call these guys the “he is not bad.. but we could do better” group

In 8 days we find out if Frank Newport is a Freeper like us and has been drinking our Kool Aid or if we here on FR are geniuses and Frank Newport knows that Nate Silver is a hack.


29 posted on 10/29/2012 5:30:35 PM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
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To: Ravi; tatown; RoseofTexas

I voted in the safe comfort of NE Tarrant County :-)


30 posted on 10/29/2012 5:32:21 PM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
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Click


For every New Monthly Donor
A generous Freeper donates $10!!
Please sign up now!

31 posted on 10/29/2012 5:33:38 PM PDT by RedMDer (https://support.woundedwarriorproject.org/default.aspx?tsid=om93destr)
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To: SoftwareEngineer

1. Nate Silver isn’t a pollster, he’s a number scrambler.

2. Gallup’s position is a much less popular position thus requiring a bigger pair of vegetables to defend.

3. Gallup has a long standing reputation and a hell of a lot more experience than Silver.

I’ll go with Gallup (and Ed Goeas) on this one.


32 posted on 10/29/2012 5:36:08 PM PDT by tatown (Obama was right, it was a 'one term proposition')
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To: tatown
Me, me, me. Count me as one of them in Florida.

And my vote was not for the fascist, commie, either or for any other "RAT" on the ballot!

33 posted on 10/29/2012 5:47:37 PM PDT by neveralib
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To: SamAdams76
I detest early voting as it invites fraud.

Same here. Nothing like reporting to the democrats a tally of how many votes they need to create. That's been the game in Detroit for years. They refuse to hand in their official tallies till after everyone else in the state has done so and only then do they announce the democrat winner.

Every drug sodden slacker I know votes now because they don't have to get off the couch to do it.
34 posted on 10/29/2012 5:50:04 PM PDT by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
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To: cripplecreek

Last year, or maybe earlier this year, it may have been Wisconsin or Michigan, there was one pubbie poll worker who held back reporting her results until the dem counties had all reported. They were so pissed because she beat them legitimately at their own game, and the pubbie won.


35 posted on 10/29/2012 6:38:43 PM PDT by GEC (We're not drilling in ANWR because....)
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To: MeanGreen2008

I saw another HUGE line of early voters today here in South Florida. I don’t think many are standing for so long on line to vote FOR Obama.


36 posted on 10/29/2012 6:58:37 PM PDT by PJ-Comix (Beware the Rip in the Space/Time Continuum)
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To: ConorMacNessa

I am in the 15%. Wife and I voted last week for Romney (we are in Illinois so it won’t really count). Turnout seemed very high for these republican leaning suburbs but Chicago will overwhelm the rest of the state.

I hope and pray Gallup is right. All the conflicting polls and projections have me very worried.


37 posted on 10/29/2012 7:04:32 PM PDT by CSinIL
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To: CSinIL
I've lived in the People's Republic of Maryland for over fifty years. My vote is nothing more than a statement of defiance to the evil powers that hold sway here. It's a Statement of defiance that I will reiterate until I die!



Genuflectimus non ad principem sed ad Principem Pacis!

Listen, O isles, unto me; and hearken, ye people, from far; The LORD hath called me from the womb; from the bowels of my mother hath he made mention of my name. (Isaiah 49:1 KJV)

38 posted on 10/29/2012 7:24:39 PM PDT by ConorMacNessa (HM/2 USN, 3/5 Marines RVN 1969 - St. Michael the Archangel defend us in Battle!)
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To: SeekAndFind; LS; Perdogg; napscoordinator; God luvs America; nutmeg; SoFloFreeper; Ravi; ...

Poll ping.


39 posted on 10/29/2012 7:28:47 PM PDT by Jet Jaguar (The pundits have forgotten the 2010 elections.)
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To: MeanGreen2008

Who are the other 3% voting for?


40 posted on 10/29/2012 7:40:38 PM PDT by tbw2
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To: tatown

Seems a little inconsistent with the Rasmussen poll of Ohio (32% early voting, O 62%, R 36%)


41 posted on 10/29/2012 8:19:19 PM PDT by RagingBull (Talent does what it can; genius does what it must)
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To: ConorMacNessa

Defy the dark side, Obi Wan! . . . Cura et valeas!


42 posted on 10/29/2012 9:06:50 PM PDT by MrChips (MrChips)
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To: ConorMacNessa

Defy the dark side, Obi Wan! . . . Cura ut valeas!


43 posted on 10/29/2012 9:06:54 PM PDT by MrChips (MrChips)
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To: GEC
Last year, or maybe earlier this year, it may have been Wisconsin or Michigan, there was one pubbie poll worker who held back reporting her results until the dem counties had all reported. They were so pissed because she beat them legitimately at their own game, and the pubbie won.

That was Wisconsin, during the Walker recall. When I read about that I was grinning from ear to ear!! Thanks for the reminder!

44 posted on 10/29/2012 9:24:20 PM PDT by alley cat
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To: tatown

“Romney currently leads Obama 52% to 45% among voters who say they have already cast their ballots. “

Good news, but would be skewed depending on which states are doing early voting.


45 posted on 10/29/2012 9:42:11 PM PDT by WOSG (REPEAL AND REPLACE OBAMA. He stole America’s promise!)
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To: tatown; Revolting cat!

30 minute wait at the polling center today. One enterprising youth was selling Obama t-shirts and even ballsier “WE ARE THE 47%” (who pay no federal taxes).

And before anyone asks, he was well away from the polling entrance and not in any violation.

Better for him to sell those t-shirts now than wait until after Obama loses and have to compete with the post-Halloween clearance sales merch.


46 posted on 10/29/2012 9:45:01 PM PDT by a fool in paradise (Obama likes to claim credit for getting Osama. Why hasn't he tried Khalid Sheikh Mohammed yet?)
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To: shoedog

There were any pollsters asking voters today “who they voted for” so unless the polling agencies are claiming that they have a “good” exit poll sample or have hacked the computers to tally votes, they have nothing but a guess at this point.


47 posted on 10/29/2012 9:46:50 PM PDT by a fool in paradise (Obama likes to claim credit for getting Osama. Why hasn't he tried Khalid Sheikh Mohammed yet?)
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To: RoseofTexas

Obama is going to get almost 60 million votes. Thats a long line. Romney will have a longer line though.


48 posted on 10/29/2012 9:48:11 PM PDT by jwalsh07
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To: SoftwareEngineer

Also keep in mind that Gallup polls adults for job approval. Not likely, not even registered voters. Which may explain the volatility of this category. Seems ridiculous to poll “adults” one week out from the election


49 posted on 10/29/2012 10:04:25 PM PDT by Arthurio
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To: LS

“...would have been the third US president I saw...’

I saw ‘em all in an earlier time...Truman, Eisenhower, JFK, Nixon, Reagan...

I heard FDR ‘Fireside Chats’ on the radio. I voted for Nixon three times. I have a bar in my home that was used to serve the Kennedy’s...it was made by and previously in the home of Ray Miller, Dem Chairman of Cuyahoga County and the first big city pol to back JFK...the Kennedy’s were guests in the Miller home both as candidate and as president. I voted for Reagan absentee when I lived in Northern Ireland...

Re Ray Miller, Cuyahoga County Dem Chairman...three brothers followed him at Notre Dame. One, the last of the four brothers to go there, was one of the Four Horsemen. The Four Horsemen of Notre Dame of course comprised a winning group of American football players at the University of Notre Dame under coach Knute Rockne. They were the backfield of Notre Dame’s 1924 football team. The players that made up this group were Harry Stuhldreher, Don Miller, Jim Crowley, and Elmer Layden.

Miller, a native of Defiance, Ohio, followed his three brothers to Notre Dame. At 5-11, 160 pounds, Miller proved to be the team’s breakaway threat. According to Rockne, Miller was the greatest open-field runner he ever coached.


50 posted on 10/29/2012 10:28:46 PM PDT by GGpaX4DumpedTea (I am a Tea Party descendant...steeped in the Constitutional Republic given to us by the Founders.)
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