Skip to comments.In U.S., 15% of Registered Voters Have Already Cast Ballots (Romney leads 52 to 45 per Gallup!)
Posted on 10/29/2012 4:24:03 PM PDT by tatown
Romney currently leads Obama 52% to 45% among voters who say they have already cast their ballots. However, that is comparable to Romney's 51% to 46% lead among all likely voters in Gallup's Oct. 22-28 tracking polling. At the same time, the race is tied at 49% among those who have not yet voted but still intend to vote early, suggesting these voters could cause the race to tighten. However, Romney leads 51% to 45% among the much larger group of voters who plan to vote on Election Day, Nov. 6.
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
So much for early voting helping Dems.
I am not buying all the early voting results, First it was Obama blowing out numbers, now it’s Romney, at the end of the day it is a survey of people who could be blowing smoke, since nobody that I am aware of can share actual results of early votes until election night count me skeptical.
Praying that America has enough of Obozo and his anti-God agenda.
I voted about a month ago.
1) The Obama voters of 08 aren't there. This would be busloads of blacks, inner city types. They come in in gaggles. No one is seeing this. A week ago, Obama was here in Dayton, and the Ds had 27 busloads ready to take people to early vote. Ds had three floors ready with tables and people to help them fill out the forms. They expected THOUSANDS . . . got 300.
2) I am told that the Obama voters who ARE coming in are regular "election day" voters, so that the Ds are cannibalizing their election day turnout.
3) Many of the early voters are Rs. My former chairman said it appeared to be 10-15% of all voters this time, as opposed to only 5% early voting Rs last time. But Romney did NOT try to get out "regular" voters to early vote, but rather went after "low propensity voters."
4) I was a little concerned about the Montgomery Co. number, which was up 4000 from 08, but it appears we have a lot of indies. If you assume the indies break 6% to Romney (not much according to most polls), then I put the Montgomery Co. early voter % at 56-44%D. At 12%, that is eight points below what Obama won in 08, when he won the county by about four. In other words, Romney is up, perhaps four, perhaps even more if the indies break harder.
Caveat: this is only one county.
I detest early voting as it invites fraud. For those voting early, be advised that there is a good chance your vote is being changed to a vote for Obama.
Thank you for your real life information, that is the data I find interesting and helpful. Fortunately (or unfortunately for identifying trends) I live in suburban Kansas City on KS side so no issue with the state. I will say MO was very tight McCain win in 2012, not even close this year, Obama not even putting much in for ads, just a horrific Senate race on the Missouri side. Definitely can tell you much less Obama stickers, yard signs etc. in greater KC area.
When someone votes early, that is reflected in the poll listing or books that election officers use to see if a person is registered and if they have voted. These listings are updated daily and given to the parties, which use them to identify voters who haven't voted yet and get them out to the polls.
Just voted today and I have to tell you there was a steady stream of people coming and going from the voting building. I live in a very staunch RAT part of Texas and it’s scary when you see so many folk voting and you know EXACTLY who they are voting for. Don’t underestimate Obumler’s voting block...they will turn out and what I saw they ARE voting. WE HAVE TO OUT NUMBER THEM...so start encouraging folk on our side to VOTE. I hope this lights a fire under our feet and GTVO!!
Just wanted to say thanks for your on-the-ground analysis, LS.
> For those voting early, be advised that there is a good chance your vote is being changed to a vote for Obama.
And this verifies their own statistical model. Which means, Gallup and Rasmussen = reliable polls, and PPP and others are pure garbage.
Since Rats tend to vote early and Pubbies on election day, i think you can be safe to say that Obama will declare a national emergency and cancel elections due to Sandy.
Nate Silver at his computer...
Just voted today and I have to tell you there was a steady stream of people going and coming from the voting building. I live in a very staunch RAT part of Texas and it’s scary when you see so many folk voting and you know EXACTLY who they are voting for. Don’t underestimate Obumber’s voting block...they will turn out and what I saw they ARE voting. WE HAVE TO OUT NUMBER THEM...so start encouraging folk on our side to VOTE. I hope this lights a fire under our feet and GTVO!!
Just seen a report this weekend from a local Houston publication that shows McCain counties early voters are up 13% from 2008 while Obama areas are slightly down.
It’s been fun, although I’m math challenged so all the numbers are formidable. Romney was to have been here in Dayton tonight and I had front row seats-—would have been the third US president I saw-—Reagan, Bush (in the Oval Office), and Romney.
Please stop repeating that paranoid, panty wetting delusion.
The POTUS does not have the power to cancel or postpone a national election. If he even tried, he'd likely spark the 2nd American Revolution, and cause the total dissolution of the US government.
Read your US Constitution and bone up on this. If that doesn't convince you, then bone up on gun sales over the last four years.
I wonder how many of these early “Democrat” voters are actually pulling the lever for RR?
I don’t think we should assume that all of them are going to vote strictly by party affiliation.
CO R’s ahead by 2.5 %. For OH, I’ll post updates later tonite - we have definitely breached their early voting firewall by reducing their advantage. I can show you this.
Rose, i voted in tarrant county this weekend. You can vote in any county polling place. We happened to be in downtown on saturday and voted at a close to downtown location. High AA population. Anecdotal, but we were in and out in 10 minutes.
This poll is very interesting as the data is obviously collated from their daily samples that they use for the daily update
So, two things strike me as unusual about Gallup:
1. They are obviously quite willing to stick their neck out with the +5 Republican outcome in the final election. They are getting this due to not applying a screen. They must be pretty confident to go this route
2. They must be polling very heavily in certain regions on certain days. Nothing else can explain the huge shifts in Presidential approvals each day. However, some of you will argue that if the approvals shift so much, why does the race stay broadly stable. I would argue that shows the Independents and Democrats. People who are willing to say “Somewhat approve” about the President but when pushed into making a choice, they say “Governor Romney”. I call these guys the “he is not bad.. but we could do better” group
In 8 days we find out if Frank Newport is a Freeper like us and has been drinking our Kool Aid or if we here on FR are geniuses and Frank Newport knows that Nate Silver is a hack.
I voted in the safe comfort of NE Tarrant County :-)
1. Nate Silver isn’t a pollster, he’s a number scrambler.
2. Gallup’s position is a much less popular position thus requiring a bigger pair of vegetables to defend.
3. Gallup has a long standing reputation and a hell of a lot more experience than Silver.
I’ll go with Gallup (and Ed Goeas) on this one.
And my vote was not for the fascist, commie, either or for any other "RAT" on the ballot!
Last year, or maybe earlier this year, it may have been Wisconsin or Michigan, there was one pubbie poll worker who held back reporting her results until the dem counties had all reported. They were so pissed because she beat them legitimately at their own game, and the pubbie won.
I saw another HUGE line of early voters today here in South Florida. I don’t think many are standing for so long on line to vote FOR Obama.
I am in the 15%. Wife and I voted last week for Romney (we are in Illinois so it won’t really count). Turnout seemed very high for these republican leaning suburbs but Chicago will overwhelm the rest of the state.
I hope and pray Gallup is right. All the conflicting polls and projections have me very worried.
Who are the other 3% voting for?
Seems a little inconsistent with the Rasmussen poll of Ohio (32% early voting, O 62%, R 36%)
Defy the dark side, Obi Wan! . . . Cura et valeas!
Defy the dark side, Obi Wan! . . . Cura ut valeas!
That was Wisconsin, during the Walker recall. When I read about that I was grinning from ear to ear!! Thanks for the reminder!
“Romney currently leads Obama 52% to 45% among voters who say they have already cast their ballots. “
Good news, but would be skewed depending on which states are doing early voting.
30 minute wait at the polling center today. One enterprising youth was selling Obama t-shirts and even ballsier “WE ARE THE 47%” (who pay no federal taxes).
And before anyone asks, he was well away from the polling entrance and not in any violation.
Better for him to sell those t-shirts now than wait until after Obama loses and have to compete with the post-Halloween clearance sales merch.
There were any pollsters asking voters today “who they voted for” so unless the polling agencies are claiming that they have a “good” exit poll sample or have hacked the computers to tally votes, they have nothing but a guess at this point.
Obama is going to get almost 60 million votes. Thats a long line. Romney will have a longer line though.
Also keep in mind that Gallup polls adults for job approval. Not likely, not even registered voters. Which may explain the volatility of this category. Seems ridiculous to poll “adults” one week out from the election
“...would have been the third US president I saw...’
I saw ‘em all in an earlier time...Truman, Eisenhower, JFK, Nixon, Reagan...
I heard FDR ‘Fireside Chats’ on the radio. I voted for Nixon three times. I have a bar in my home that was used to serve the Kennedy’s...it was made by and previously in the home of Ray Miller, Dem Chairman of Cuyahoga County and the first big city pol to back JFK...the Kennedy’s were guests in the Miller home both as candidate and as president. I voted for Reagan absentee when I lived in Northern Ireland...
Re Ray Miller, Cuyahoga County Dem Chairman...three brothers followed him at Notre Dame. One, the last of the four brothers to go there, was one of the Four Horsemen. The Four Horsemen of Notre Dame of course comprised a winning group of American football players at the University of Notre Dame under coach Knute Rockne. They were the backfield of Notre Dame’s 1924 football team. The players that made up this group were Harry Stuhldreher, Don Miller, Jim Crowley, and Elmer Layden.
Miller, a native of Defiance, Ohio, followed his three brothers to Notre Dame. At 5-11, 160 pounds, Miller proved to be the team’s breakaway threat. According to Rockne, Miller was the greatest open-field runner he ever coached.