In U.S., 15% of Registered Voters Have Already Cast Ballots (Romney leads 52 to 45 per Gallup!)

Gallup ^ | 10/29 | Gallup

[tatown]

Romney currently leads Obama 52% to 45% among voters who say they have already cast their ballots. However, that is comparable to Romney's 51% to 46% lead among all likely voters in Gallup's Oct. 22-28 tracking polling. At the same time, the race is tied at 49% among those who have not yet voted but still intend to vote early, suggesting these voters could cause the race to tighten. However, Romney leads 51% to 45% among the much larger group of voters who plan to vote on Election Day, Nov. 6.

[tatown]

Very good news it seems.

[tatown]

Ping

[MeanGreen2008]

So much for early voting helping Dems.

[shoedog]

I am not buying all the early voting results, First it was Obama blowing out numbers, now it’s Romney, at the end of the day it is a survey of people who could be blowing smoke, since nobody that I am aware of can share actual results of early votes until election night count me skeptical.

[Blood of Tyrants]

Praying that America has enough of Obozo and his anti-God agenda.

[Mountain Bike Vomit Carnage]

I voted about a month ago.

[LS]

No, no one is sure. But we have people at election hq in Dayton every day watching. We've seen a couple of things.

1) The Obama voters of 08 aren't there. This would be busloads of blacks, inner city types. They come in in gaggles. No one is seeing this. A week ago, Obama was here in Dayton, and the Ds had 27 busloads ready to take people to early vote. Ds had three floors ready with tables and people to help them fill out the forms. They expected THOUSANDS . . . got 300.

2) I am told that the Obama voters who ARE coming in are regular "election day" voters, so that the Ds are cannibalizing their election day turnout.

3) Many of the early voters are Rs. My former chairman said it appeared to be 10-15% of all voters this time, as opposed to only 5% early voting Rs last time. But Romney did NOT try to get out "regular" voters to early vote, but rather went after "low propensity voters."

4) I was a little concerned about the Montgomery Co. number, which was up 4000 from 08, but it appears we have a lot of indies. If you assume the indies break 6% to Romney (not much according to most polls), then I put the Montgomery Co. early voter % at 56-44%D. At 12%, that is eight points below what Obama won in 08, when he won the county by about four. In other words, Romney is up, perhaps four, perhaps even more if the indies break harder.

Caveat: this is only one county.

[Jack Hydrazine]

The pic below shows this cool cat,

a Pallas's cat (aka manul) that lives in the Himalayas, about to go into the voting booth. He doesn't look very happy so I bet he voted Romney.
LOL!

Sneaky Cat Caught on Camera in Himalayas

[Signalman]

Romney currently leads Obama 52% to 45% among voters who say they have already cast their ballots.

It looks like 52/46 to me.

[SamAdams76]

I detest early voting as it invites fraud. For those voting early, be advised that there is a good chance your vote is being changed to a vote for Obama.

[shoedog]

Thank you for your real life information, that is the data I find interesting and helpful. Fortunately (or unfortunately for identifying trends) I live in suburban Kansas City on KS side so no issue with the state. I will say MO was very tight McCain win in 2012, not even close this year, Obama not even putting much in for ads, just a horrific Senate race on the Missouri side. Definitely can tell you much less Obama stickers, yard signs etc. in greater KC area.

[kabar]

You can estimate the numbers fairly easily. In states that have party affiliation, you can look at who voted early and use those numbers plus independents. In states that don't have party affiliation, you can look at past voting in primaries and other races and estimate from there.

When someone votes early, that is reflected in the poll listing or books that election officers use to see if a person is registered and if they have voted. These listings are updated daily and given to the parties, which use them to identify voters who haven't voted yet and get them out to the polls.

[RoseofTexas]

Just voted today and I have to tell you there was a steady stream of people coming and going from the voting building. I live in a very staunch RAT part of Texas and it’s scary when you see so many folk voting and you know EXACTLY who they are voting for. Don’t underestimate Obumler’s voting block...they will turn out and what I saw they ARE voting. WE HAVE TO OUT NUMBER THEM...so start encouraging folk on our side to VOTE. I hope this lights a fire under our feet and GTVO!!

[TheBigB]

Just wanted to say thanks for your on-the-ground analysis, LS.

[MacMattico]

Seems like very good news to me, but did I read the internals saying more Republicans have voted early? Hopefully that shows more enthusiasm (and Dem crossovers) but I thought we're being told more Democrats have voted early? Just asking— are Democrats going to show up on election day and erase this lead? What about Ohio and CO? Aren't Dems up big there in early voting? We need swing states! Not trying to be a debbie downer, just throwing it out their to see what people think. If we are leading this much nationally in early voting, this is very good because I was concerned with people that voted before the debates and mittmentum had started regretting already voting for Obama!

[Jyotishi]

> For those voting early, be advised that there is a good chance your vote is being changed to a vote for Obama.

Excellent point.

[ConorMacNessa]

Voted by absentee ballot this year. In 2008, my wife and I stood in line for three hours to vote on Election Day. Never again!



Genuflectimus non ad principem sed ad Principem Pacis!

Listen, O isles, unto me; and hearken, ye people, from far; The LORD hath called me from the womb; from the bowels of my mother hath he made mention of my name. (Isaiah 49:1 KJV)

[tony777]

AWESOME NEWS!!!!

And this verifies their own statistical model. Which means, Gallup and Rasmussen = reliable polls, and PPP and others are pure garbage.

Since Rats tend to vote early and Pubbies on election day, i think you can be safe to say that Obama will declare a national emergency and cancel elections due to Sandy.

[Windflier]

"Romney currently leads Obama 52% to 45% among voters who say they have already cast their ballots."

[SoFloFreeper]

no way, man, NATE SILVER has already said the election is pretty much in the bag for Obama. Don't worry 'bout those pesky voters...this election is decided by NATE SILVER.

Nate Silver at his computer...