Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Michael Barone: Changing Demographics Won't mean End of The Republican Party
Townhall ^ | Michael Barone

Posted on 10/29/2012 4:59:37 PM PDT by emax

When reading one of the endless stories about a just-released poll Thursday night, a pair of numbers struck my eye: 60 and 37.

Those were the percentages of white voters supporting Mitt Romney and Barack Obama in the ABC/Washington Post tracking poll. Overall, the poll showed Romney leading Obama 50 to 47 percent.

The reason those two numbers struck my eye is that they are identical to the percentages of white voters supporting Republicans and Democrats in elections for the House of Representatives in the 2010 exit poll. Overall, Republicans won the House popular vote by a margin of 52 to 45 percent, tied with 1994 for the best Republican showing since 1946.

In fact, it's the Republicans' biggest margin among white voters in House elections ever since the party was formed in 1854. Republican presidential candidates have won by bigger margins among whites only in 1920, 1972 and 1984.

Some will ascribe this to racism. But Barack Obama won enough votes from whites to win with 53 percent in 2008, more than any other Democratic nominee except Andrew Jackson, Franklin Roosevelt and Lyndon Johnson.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: barone; conservatives; demographics; diversity; dontusetheracecard; outreach; republican; stopracebaiting
A mix of optimism and realism amongst fear that the smaller percentage of middle aged and older white guys in America means the Republican party is doomed.
1 posted on 10/29/2012 4:59:37 PM PDT by emax
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: emax

Guess in order to remain competitive, the future GOP will have to move Left + promise more goodies to the Dems usual demographics blocs.


2 posted on 10/29/2012 5:05:20 PM PDT by Utmost Certainty (Our Enemy, the State)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: emax

I could care less if the Republican Party survives.


3 posted on 10/29/2012 5:06:35 PM PDT by WackySam (Obama got Osama just like Nixon landed on the moon.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: emax

Many if not most Asians and many Latinos marry middle class whites and raise families in suburbia. The white community may darken but will grow


4 posted on 10/29/2012 5:14:24 PM PDT by hecht (restore Hetch-Hetchy, and screw San Francisco and Pelosi)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: emax

Many if not most Asians and many Latinos marry middle class whites and raise families in suburbia. The white community may darken but will grow


5 posted on 10/29/2012 5:14:25 PM PDT by hecht (restore Hetch-Hetchy, and screw San Francisco and Pelosi)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

Comment #6 Removed by Moderator

To: emax
Think of it as an assembly line. When people are young they are naive and idealistic. They believe that utopia is possible if you just vote for it.

As these youngsters grow older and experience the real world and begin to recognize the con artists for the shysters they really are, they begin to change from democrats to republicans.

7 posted on 10/29/2012 5:19:07 PM PDT by oldbrowser (An empty chair attracts a stadium full of empty chairs.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: WackySam

The ideology of the GOP is heading leftward.


8 posted on 10/29/2012 5:23:33 PM PDT by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: emax
The Republican Party is nothing more than a bunch of degenerate blue blood banker country clubbers who waged war against the sons of the Founders in 1861 and murdered the Republic via imposition of Universal Suffrage via Constitutional Amendment.

They have since conspired with the communist faction of their fellow Washingtonians to make slaves of the working man outside of DC, under penalty of imprisonment via the IRS and the DOJ.

The Washingtonians have got it figured out, and basically fight every 4 years over control of the cash extorted from the working class.

The RNC and their greedy pulled back wives aren't much different than the DNC commies, it's all a scam.

9 posted on 10/29/2012 5:29:01 PM PDT by Rome2000 (NO ONE IN ROMNEYS DIRECT LINE HAS EVER SERVED THE UNITED STATES IN UNIFORM 170 YEARS)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: emax

In the sixties, conservative voters in the South figured out that the Democrat Party of their fathers and grandfathers was the enemy of their core beliefs in freedom, liberty, self reliance, and limited government. The South is now solid red. The rest of the country is starting to wake up and will likewise abandon the party of their forefathers.

The Republican Party should take note, however. If they act like Democrats, they will be abandoned as well and a new party will rise up. We are tired of writing the checks to support the Get-a-Check crowd.


10 posted on 10/29/2012 5:37:39 PM PDT by centurion316
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: hecht

Vietnamese become middle class aggressively and most still have the traditional family structure which means the kids don’t rebel and they vote according to middle class status or aspirations and with traditional distrust of government.


11 posted on 10/29/2012 5:47:00 PM PDT by ThanhPhero (Khach hanh huong den La Vang)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: Rome2000

I agree.


12 posted on 10/29/2012 5:48:57 PM PDT by HANG THE EXPENSE (Life's tough.It's tougher when you're stupid.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: emax

As the West begins to endure true debt-induced austerity, we may very well see more younger people going conservative, as the majority of debt is being spent on programs for the baby-boomers, and the young are getting the worst of the deal - higher taxes and less employment mainly.

Start watching about 15:50. Niall Ferguson makes a very good case for this idea.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eu-VKTgXyR0


13 posted on 10/29/2012 6:00:25 PM PDT by PGR88
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Rome2000

The working class doesn’t pay much in taxes, actually.


14 posted on 10/29/2012 6:08:14 PM PDT by Clemenza ("History, I believe, furnishes no example of a priest-ridden people maintaining a free civil governm)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: WackySam; cripplecreek; emax; Rome2000; HANG THE EXPENSE
"I could care less if the Republican Party survives." - WackySam

"The ideology of the GOP is heading leftward." - cripplecreek

"...means the Republican party is doomed." - emax

"The white community may darken but will grow." - hecht

"The Republican Party is nothing more than a bunch of degenerate blue blood banker country clubbers..." - Rome2000

"I agree." - HANG THE EXPENSE

---

Contrary to the prevailing opinion on this thread the GOP has grown quite a bit since the 2010 elections, and that growth continues. Even the liberal PEW group had to admit that GOP growth has been significant.

And what about the liberal views within GOP elected officials? The fact is, they aren’t supported by grass-roots conservatism where the largest segment of growth resides? They don’t like it, and are rising up in opposition to ‘Republicans’ that vote with the Democrats.

Conservatism within the GOP is in high ascendency, and in fact represents the greatest concentration of conservatives among all political parties that have any chance in future elections. If you don’t support them, then your own conservatism is highly suspect.

I invite all of you to visit your own local district central committee, precinct, or ward (different names for the party at the local level) and vote there – against pretend conservatism. It’s all too easy to do so.

I suggest you all get out of the house and find out what real conservatives do to earn the moniker.

15 posted on 10/29/2012 6:18:03 PM PDT by Admin Moderator
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: Rome2000

You think Republicans are degenerate blue blood banker country clubbers??? I’m sure this place must be teeming with them right? Maybe you can point some out for me.


16 posted on 10/29/2012 6:30:07 PM PDT by GOPJ ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zbOuxqK2T34)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: Admin Moderator
Don't be afraid to see what you see.

Ronald Reagan.
17 posted on 10/29/2012 6:34:01 PM PDT by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: Admin Moderator; WackySam; cripplecreek; emax; Rome2000; HANG THE EXPENSE; Jim Robinson
Contrary to the prevailing opinion on this thread the GOP has grown quite a bit since the 2010 elections, and that growth continues. Even the liberal PEW group had to admit that GOP growth has been significant.

This isn't a discusson about the size of the GOP, but whether or not it is headed in the right direction.

As conservatives, we aren't all that enthralled with the sell-out approach of the "Big-Tent".

Conservatism within the GOP is in high ascendency, and in fact represents the greatest concentration of conservatives among all political parties that have any chance in future elections. If you don’t support them, then your own conservatism is highly suspect.

Sorry, but if that were true, why is the following happening?

1. The worst candidate, in terms of being a conservative, won the nomination.
2. That same candidate supports Abortion in the cases of incest, rape, life, and HEALTH of the mother.
3. That same candidate supports the Gay Agenda by supporting Gays in the Military, Gay Adoption, and fathered Gay Marriage in MA.
4. The GOP spends one million dollars on an openly Gay, extreme left-wing pretend Republican Tsei in MA, but refuses to back a 96% Conservative in Todd Akin because of a statement, however unwise it was, that was twisted by the Press.
5. Boehner Leading the House
6. McConnell Leading the Senate

Any growth in the size of the GOP, this election cycle, has come at the expense of conservatives and their principles.

You may have a point about the Grassroots, but you have exactly no point where the leadership of the GOP is concerned.
18 posted on 10/29/2012 6:41:27 PM PDT by SoConPubbie (Mitt and Obama: They're the same poison, just a different potency.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: Rome2000

Damn Brother , you got it figured.


19 posted on 10/29/2012 6:42:16 PM PDT by silentreignofheroes
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: SoConPubbie; VinL; ex-snook; sport; INVAR; ejonesie22; PieterCasparzen; Colonel_Flagg; Washi; ...

Ping!


20 posted on 10/29/2012 6:44:22 PM PDT by SoConPubbie (Mitt and Obama: They're the same poison, just a different potency.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: SoConPubbie

HEAR,HEAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


21 posted on 10/29/2012 6:48:09 PM PDT by HANG THE EXPENSE (Life's tough.It's tougher when you're stupid.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: SoConPubbie
As conservatives, we aren't all that enthralled with the sell-out approach of the "Big-Tent".

That's exactly my point. We could all become democrats and we'll win for sure but what would we be winning if we gave up all we stand for.

I live equidistant from Michigan state university, U of M, and Hillsdale college and I encounter a lot of college republicans who are just fiscally moderate democrats. Combine them with the former democrat party who are now maxists and things ain't looking do good for America. Even as a rural teenager I was never as liberal as these college republicans.

BTW, Hillsdale college produces the most conservative of the bunch and they seem to lean heavily toward Ron Paul.
22 posted on 10/29/2012 6:55:24 PM PDT by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: centurion316

Lots of educated Brits, Germans , Italians and French would
love to escape the Euro socialism, if we would only change our immigration laws to allow the Brain Drain to come here.


23 posted on 10/29/2012 7:16:34 PM PDT by Zenjitsuman
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: Zenjitsuman

And educated South Americans, Central Americans, Africans, Iranians, Chinese, Filipinos, Thais, Vietnamese and others too. Either be for restricting immigration across the board or be in favor if immigration reform that allows for productive, educated workers from everywhere, not just places of Euro descent. The attitude that immigration should be so embraced when it comes to workers from Western and Northern Europe and shunned form everywhere else is not gonna get any kind of mainstream support whatsoever for the Social Conservative movement. Hopefully this is a fringe view and the US public will see it that way.


24 posted on 10/29/2012 7:31:54 PM PDT by emax
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 23 | View Replies]

To: SoConPubbie

+1 Well spoken.


25 posted on 10/29/2012 7:33:18 PM PDT by GenXteacher (You have chosen dishonor to avoid war; you shall have war also.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: emax; All

The only question posed by Michael Barone in his article was: “ Why are whites more one-sidedly partisan than just about ever before?”

In answering his question, Michael chose to answer the question by comparing Democrats and Republicans in terms of their voting percentages and various ethnic groups. Article topics and abundances are as follows:

White(s) 4
Non-Whites 3
Racial/racism 2
Minority 2
Black(s) 2
One each for topics of: University, Hispanics, Asians, ethnically and same-sex.

Michael chose to put his racially-colored glasses on and happily wrote his article. He was pleased. His Editor was pleased. The insulated Liberal Agenda Media was pleased.

Michael had lots of facts and high-faluting experts to use as fillers. Michael will probably get a raise, and maybe even an award from The Media, if not The RINO Party itself.

But did Michael answer the question?

After reading the article can one find that a major topic was left out?

BTW, gotta quit now. My back is killing me.

Don’t know why it is, but each year there seems to be more people in the wagon than pulling the wagon.

Just can’t figure it out!

Ouch, sorry FReepers, my back is plumb tuckered out from pulling the wagon tonight.

Sorry, I’ll try to pull it again tomorrow. Ouch! Dang!!

BTW, BTW, remember where I left off: Why are whites more one-sidedly partisan than just about ever before?


26 posted on 10/29/2012 7:36:20 PM PDT by Graewoulf ((Traitor John Roberts' Obama"care" violates Sherman Anti-Trust Law, AND the U.S. Constitution.))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SoConPubbie

Well the problem is that 1, The American public simply flat out has far more pressing issues than whether or not abortion would be allowed in case of rape or whether or not gays would be allowed to adopt or be in the military or get married in MA. A Republican who tries to attract public support on promising to prevent any of this simply isn’t gonna do well at all. The employment, fiscal, govt spending, debt and national security crisis completely overshadow this. And the Conservative as well as the Liberal leaders ignore this at their peril. We need to evaluate Republican, and Democrat for that matter since party lines are indeed becomingly increasingly meaningless, on their capability to adhere to Conservative or at the very least Moderate-Libertarian-Conservative-Sensible positions on the issues that are immediately affecting the majority of the American public. Congress will always have a very limited number of members who are genuinely Conservative or Liberal on all fiscal, social and foreign policy issues. Just isn’t gonna happen. Joining in with the modern liberal activists in whining about the lack of representation we have is not gonna win the genuine Conservative movement any significant mass support. Instead, take a more productive approach and understand how ordinary, independent minded Americans view each side and prove the value of your positions and show why these positions will solve our current crisis.


27 posted on 10/29/2012 7:45:29 PM PDT by emax
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: emax
Well the problem is that 1, The American public simply flat out has far more pressing issues than whether or not abortion would be allowed in case of rape or whether or not gays would be allowed to adopt or be in the military or get married in MA. A Republican who tries to attract public support on promising to prevent any of this simply isn’t gonna do well at all. The employment, fiscal, govt spending, debt and national security crisis completely overshadow this. And the Conservative as well as the Liberal leaders ignore this at their peril. We need to evaluate Republican, and Democrat for that matter since party lines are indeed becomingly increasingly meaningless, on their capability to adhere to Conservative or at the very least Moderate-Libertarian-Conservative-Sensible positions on the issues that are immediately affecting the majority of the American public. Congress will always have a very limited number of members who are genuinely Conservative or Liberal on all fiscal, social and foreign policy issues. Just isn’t gonna happen. Joining in with the modern liberal activists in whining about the lack of representation we have is not gonna win the genuine Conservative movement any significant mass support. Instead, take a more productive approach and understand how ordinary, independent minded Americans view each side and prove the value of your positions and show why these positions will solve our current crisis.

And that refusal to do the right thing and make excuses about it will continue to move the GOP to the left and it's eventual demise as more and more conservatives leave as they realize the GOP has no intentions of honoring their principles.

We need to follow Reagan's approach of focusing on all branches of conservatism, and not the approach of Bob Dole, GHB, GWB, or Romney who all compromised on conservative principals.

Not being the Democrat, may work this time, but it won't next time, and as Romney, true to his history and values, does things that every conservative should cringe at, the changes for a GOP Presidency in the future will grow more and more Dim, just like in MA, and just like in CA, where the GOP in both cases, is dead, exactly because the party kept going to the left, until the differences between the Democrats and GOP in both cases was a distinction without a difference.
28 posted on 10/29/2012 7:57:21 PM PDT by SoConPubbie (Mitt and Obama: They're the same poison, just a different potency.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 27 | View Replies]

To: Rome2000; fieldmarshaldj; Impy; Clintonfatigued; AuH2ORepublican; GOPsterinMA; campaignPete R-CT; ..
>> The Republican Party is nothing more than a bunch of degenerate blue blood banker country clubbers who waged war against the sons of the Founders in 1861 and murdered the Republic via imposition of Universal Suffrage via Constitutional Amendment. They have since conspired with the communist faction of their fellow Washingtonians to make slaves of the working man outside of DC, under penalty of imprisonment via the IRS and the DOJ. <<

Yikes! Robert Byrd's ghost has an account on FR now! Even death can't stop him from carrying around his little copy of the constitution, incoherently blabbing about the evil warmonger Republicans, and bemoaning the lost cause!


29 posted on 10/29/2012 7:58:05 PM PDT by BillyBoy ( Impeach Obama? Yes We Can!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: Rome2000
"The Republican Party is nothing more than a bunch of degenerate blue blood banker country clubbers

Actually, I'm a retired trucker, the son of a construction worker who never went to high school, and I played a total nine holes of golf in my life.

30 posted on 10/29/2012 8:24:46 PM PDT by cookcounty ("When I speak, I say what I mean and I mean what I say!" ---Joe Biden, 10/11/2012)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: WackySam
I could couldn't care less if the Republican Party survives.
31 posted on 10/29/2012 8:25:51 PM PDT by Isabel C.
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: Rome2000; BillyBoy

Did you serve in Eric Cartman’s army?


32 posted on 10/29/2012 8:39:32 PM PDT by Impy (Don't call me red.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: Isabel C.; Utmost Certainty; AuH2ORepublican; BillyBoy

I tell you that “could care less” saying drives me crazy.

So does saying “literally” when you mean “figuratively”.

Opposites! Should couples say “I hate you” before they go to bed?

As for this topic, still waiting for the magic “Brown wave” to drown the GOP, democrats have been saying it for years.


33 posted on 10/29/2012 9:25:01 PM PDT by Impy (Don't call me red.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 31 | View Replies]

To: PGR88

Baby boomers are not going to get crap. The generations before the Boomers are the last to benefit from the gravy train. I don’t understand why people keep blaming Boomers. We have paid a tremendous amount in taxes over the years to support our parents and grandparents and now will be left holding the empty bag. I don’t want these programs to continue, even though it means we will be tooled, because I don’t want my kids and grandchildren to bear those burdens.


34 posted on 10/29/2012 9:51:01 PM PDT by Pining_4_TX ( The state is the great fiction by which everybody seeks to live at the expense of everybody else. ~)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: SoConPubbie

It’s sadly amusing watching them try to play Weekend at Bernie’s with a dead elephant.


35 posted on 11/01/2012 6:31:56 AM PDT by EternalVigilance (The only wasted vote is one that doesn't represent you.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 20 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson