Skip to comments.ABC News Moves Pennsylvania, Minnesota from ‘Safe’ to ‘Lean’ Obama
Posted on 10/29/2012 7:13:23 PM PDT by mandaladon
With one week to go, states that were once considered Obama strongholds now look less solid. Republican groups are putting resources into Minnesota and Pennsylvania. Team Obama brushes off these incursions as wishful thinking by Republicans, but noticeably they are putting money and muscle into both states. Minnesota has been added to Bill Clintons schedule. And, Obama campaign officials admitted that they will once again start running ads in Pennsylvania.
See all of ABCs race ratings and make your own electoral map.
So, what is happening in Minnesota? Demographics. As our ABC/Washington Post poll has shown, Romney has a substantial lead among white men. Minnesota is one of the least diverse states in the country with 90 percent of the electorate in 2008 made of white voters. In other Midwestern states with small minority populations, like Iowa and Wisconsin, the Obama campaign has flooded the airwaves for months with anti-Romney ads. They have done nothing of the sort in Minnesota.
Moreover, the airwaves in states like Ohio and Virginia are already heavily saturated. The ground game is the name of the game now in those places. That means that SuperPACs with lots of money can get a better return on their investment on the airwaves in places like Pennsylvania and Minnesota than in the eight battleground states where the campaigns have been most heavily engaged.
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Romney was definitely heading toward a 5-6 point win. But with Sandy, who knows how this will impact the race.
The ding Obama took to his job approval over Libya last week has taken its’ toll and continued Mittmentum. Obama is trying to use the Hurricane to bring his approval numbers back. I think it will be hilarious if Obama takes OH due to poisoning the airwaves all summer but loses MN, WI, and PA because he took them for granted.
Romney is still headed for a major blow-out of the Zero... but, with Sandy that blow-out will only be larger.
Obama’s firewall is now DC, Harlem, and South Central Los Angeles.
There was a study I saw referenced here. 3 inches of rain costs Dems 2.5% of their vote. Easier to stay in bed!
There is no Superdome, no 9th Ward, no caravan of refugees migrating to Houston, no looting, no FEMA trailer camps, no national charity campaign on TV. Just shore residents doing their thing.
No dramatic photo ops, no electoral opportunity.
It must have caused them great pain to do this
One thing is for sure: Sandy will tend to reduce Obama's share of the popular vote. It's greatest impact will be on states from Maryland north -- and Obama figures to win all of these states with the possible exception of Pennsylvania and New Hampshire.
His EV total may not be affected. But thanks to Sandy, the turnout in these states will probably be significantly smaller than it might've been
I hope you all are right. But someone I still think O will try some tricks to turn this mega storm to his advantage. And the media will help him and trash Romney at every step. I believe Obama will completely suspend his campaign through the election. Therefore trying to force Mitt to do the same.
I see that Romney and Ryan are doing Diaster Relief fundaraisers in OH and WI on Tuesday. Seems like a good strategic move. The dems on twitter are already livid.
Hope that is the difference that causes an even bigger win for Romney than anyone dared to predict!
I am a bit concerned with Colorado.
A couple polls show it tied or with Obama ahead there now, including today’s ARG poll....has Romney up 1 where he was ahead by 4 earlier in the month.
What are the reads on Colorado?
I think we win, but the ARG sample was only D+1 and had Romney losing independents, the weirdest thing.
However, I think we will pull of a big win overall nationwide.
I wouldnt forget that how the American public views Obama’s response could be critical. It is often said that Bush Sr’s preceived inadequate response to Hurricane Andrew was critical in costing him the 1992 election and introducing American to the Clintons.
It must be a really good idea, then!
I don’t think that that’s what they meant. What they’re talking about is Sandy cutting down on the number of people who go to the ballot box and vote.
~~It’s a good thing for us racist Tea Party types that Minnesota is one of the least diverse states.” ~~
speaking as a northern Minn gal.... the unions are so big there. no money in
farming or logging anymore so everyone works seasonal construction, mostly
pipeling work. my ex was in the pipefitters and operators, brothers all in the
operators.. and the unions tell you how to vote.. made me sick. and the
farmers are bribed with the farm wellfare farmbill.. ugh
Only widespread death and utter devastation would help him look presidential. Sandy will not provide the networks with enough disaster porn.
Remember that the loser in 2008 tried to suspend the campaign and the winner that time refused to go for the bait. The same applies now.