Skip to comments.NPR Poll: R 48%, O 47% (+4 D)
Posted on 10/30/2012 4:53:55 AM PDT by MeanGreen2008
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Somewhat less biased D+ oversampling.
Even with that, O cannot exceed 47% and we have six days to go in this election.
He's dead, Jim.
54% women/46% men. That will skew the results.
Romney will win 60% of the white vote - about 60% with men and 45% with women.
And he has a 2-1 advantage among independents. This election is not close at all.
Unfortunately we will see his approval start rising bc of his storm response. This could be bad for R.. I hope that is not the case though.. Frick I wish it was a week from today already
NPR national poll has Romney up 1, 48-47 (was O+7 last month). Romney up 12 w/ independents. Sample is D+4.
Party ID reported at bottom of poll is D+4. Must be a rounding thing. Very common.
The insides of many Priuses will be spattered with brains after their drivers’ heads explode upon hearing this on their radios today.
The liberal/MSM politicos know it and yet refuse to pipe in, but an incumbent at 47% is a sure loser.
The undecideds will break for Romney by at least 2 to 1, more likely 3 to 1.
If this were a Repub incumbent consistently polling at 47%, the media would be pointing this nugget, i.e. look at Obama’s number, not the horse race/topline.
Just tell me one thing: given the warnings provided the State Dept, CIA, JCS, and White House.....given that, why was there no security already in place on 9/11/2012?
Why in the world do people think Obama is better on foreign policy? Aren’t they aware of what happened in Benghazi, or the rules of engagement our military are under? It doesn’t cease to amaze me how intellectually challenged some Americans are.
No mention of the “magical” 47% and its correlation with the percentage of people who don’t pay income taxes...
This ought to be well played up.
The left thought they had a “Romney killer” with that “gaffe”, but it turns out to be very true.
To a leftist, telling the truth about them or their ideology is “hate speech”.
I’m kind of thinking it may end up as a blowout. It looks like either a total nail-biter where Obama sneaks in a couple of critical states or something close to a double digit Romney will. Hopefully it’s the later.
NPR is deeply saddened.
The early voting poll says it all. Goodbye you worthless Commie and your selfish wife.
That`s a potential problem for us... while Romney has to stand aside, Obama gets free air time surveying damage and looking “presidential.” He (0bama) doesn`t have to campaign.. the official appearances fill the gap.
I like that the Romney campaign is assisting with relief efforts, though. Of course, the Obama ministry of propaganda, AKA the “media,” won`t go near that one, though. It`d disrupt the narrative that Romney is a soulless, heartless hater of common people.
Gold, is there any chance this storm is going to give Obama a boost? Honestly.
I missed it....what did Letterman say?
All we will hear about if Romney wins is see he had a "last minute surge" and our poll caught it.
It is amazing how all Republicans who have ever won since Reagan/Carter have had a last minute surge but dems have always have a "commanding lead" going into the final stretch. The games the media plays....nothing new.
Hogwash. His response to the storm is to watch from the White House. He will get no “bump” from the storm.
Of note, this same poll has Obama ahead 50-46 in battleground states.
Here is the latest from RCP...
NPR 48-47, Romney +1 (D+4)
Pew Research 47-47, Tie (D+1)
Rasmussen Reports 49-47, Romney +2 (D+4)
ABC News/Wash Post 49-49, Tie (D+7)
Gallup 51-46, Romney +5 (R+1)
IBD/TIPP 44-45, Obama +1 (D+7)
Politico/GWU/Battleground 48-49, Obama +1 (D+4)
Overall Avg, 48-47 Romney +1 (D+4)
Now if you take that average sample of D+4 and move it to what Gallup says is going to happen (R+1), it’s Romney 51-46. Exactly what Gallup shows.
I would like to know too. Not that I care...but when rats jump of the ship...I like to see it...
That I don’t believe.
Push polls like this one and CNN’s are about influencing the vote and not about reflecting reality.
There’s just a blatant bias towards Democrats this year.
I predict the national polls out this week will show a dead heat.
It’s their only option left of helping Obama, and not looking like fools. They cannot show Obama up 2-3. It will be Obama +1 to Romney +1.
For example, if they come out with a poll that says 47-47, they can keep the hope alive, but save face when Romney wins 52-47 - by saying the undecideds broke late for Romney.
And if it IS, fraud would have to be rampant.
What storm response? That he is sitting in the White House looking like the doofus that he is?
Minds are made up. Now it's just a matter of getting everybody to the polls.
So I clicked “headers” on the front page here and so okay, all the text below the articles disappeared but I don’t like it!
I did this due to an article by some Freeper on how to cut down “drag” on this forum.
Can somebody help me? I hit “header” again but nothing happens.
I hate the article list without the text!
You misspelled "oatmeal".
According to Dave in Fl (at AceHQ)....
R+0.90% - Current RCP Average
O+0.13% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+2.63% - Average using the D+3 turnout model
R+4.86% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+4.91% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
R+6.65% - Average using the Rasmussen Party ID turnout model
Try clicking on the other option: "text".
That last poll they make has to be as close as they really think is right because they want to be called on next election as a gold standard in predicting the last election. They do not want to be Zogby, they have a business to run....
I am guessing this is the last NPR/DC poll. They are not a regular pollsters. So I believe this is it.
And to show a Romney win, says it all. Carville is behind this one (Democracy Corps), so he can say he predicted a Romney win, even if Romney wins by 2-4 more points. He had Obama’s number right, and the undecideds broke late, blah blah blah.
This is a meaningful poll.
Wailing and gnashing of teeth as the evildoers are cast into darkness.
Second, pollsters such as Gallup have actually ceased polling (for at least one day) because of the disruptions. ANY poll that comes out now will have a severely tainted sample. If it took 1000 calls to get one respondent before, think of the number it will take now.
Barry is stuck. Nothing he can do will save him.
LOL! I did not even pay much attention of O 47%...priceless. Yes, you read it right...Carville predicted a Romney win so that is all that matters.
What response? This was his "response" from Rush:
Osama bin Laden’s supposed 2011 killing, Qadaffi’s actual killing in 2012, and the false claims that the USA is basically pulled out of Iraq. Sheeple cannot think beyond these ultra simplistic memes.
Even a D+2 wont do it..... I just do not see the Democrats more pumped than in 2008... cant ve. Romney will win 51.4 - 47.6
Yes, but I do not think enough to win.
I like checking the NBC elections page because they have a social media tracker checking sentiment.
It typically fluctuates somewhat, but Obama has a lot more negative social media comments as of yesterday even with the hurricane coming in than Romney. In addition, about 4 percent more say via social media they will vote for Romney per this analysis from a third party firm.
That has fluctuated day by day, with even some wild swings, but most days it has Romney ahead.
It will be interesting to see what tomorrow shows, for right now the polls may not be too accurate with so many out of power.
The 47% NUMBER is true.
What is false is to claim that it correlates to people who don’t pay federal income taxes.
In terms of WHO will vote for Obama no matter what.
Obama will get millions of votes from rich liberals. From upper middle class liberals. All of whom pay federal income tax.
Romney will get millions of votes from lower middle class and working poor voters, most of whom do not make enough money to owe federal income tax.
I post this truth every chance I get, but there’s so much misstatement, so little time.
And that’s why Romney and Ryan distanced themselves from the original statement Mitt made at that fundraiser.
They said that Romney did not state it in the exact way he meant it. He had an inarticulate moment, they both said.
I’m telling you, the reason they knew he was off kilter in HOW he said it, is because they looked at the statement he made and they realized, too late, that he was right about the number 47%, but he was WRONG that those who will vote Obama no matter what are the same ones who don’t pay federal income taxes.
They realized, too late, that plenty of people who pay federal taxes will vote Obama, and plenty of people who don’t make enough to owe the Feds will vote for Romney.
And feast on this nugget: The broader point Romney was trying to make got lost in the shuffle...he was saying, too many people have become too dependent on the government, and that’s not good.
Oh boy, you can kick the 47% completely to the curb if you just wanted to, and instead, simply argue the broader point Romney was trying to make, and you’ve got a WINNER!
Blowout-Romney will get about 52% of the vote.
Does anyone konw where I can find how many registered voters there are in specific states? I want to know how many millions of registered voters are in Florida.
The NBC election website social media tracker shows no more positive comments for Obama on social media at least not yet. Still 60-40 negative comments about him online.
That’s probably one of the things I will be checking to see if there is any change with the polls out of commission.
Five day old poll results aren’t breaking news.
Tickle me Elmo is reportedly on suicide watch.