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Romney starts reserving time in Pennsylvania for last two days of race (Updated)
Politico ^ | 10/30/2012 | MAGGIE HABERMAN

Posted on 10/30/2012 1:13:43 PM PDT by nhwingut

Two media-tracking sources say Mitt Romney's campaign has started reserving TV time in Pennsylvania for the final two days of the campaign, including Election Day.

The initial placements come as the pro-Romney super PAC Restore Our Future is buying over $2 million in time there, and as Crossroads is also going up with a buy over $600,000. The Obama campaign, forced to expend resources there, has responded with a defensive buy of over $600,000.

The Romney buy is intended to signal the campaign considers the state, which Republicans have made plays for in past presidential cycles but went for Democrats in 2004 and 2008, to be one that could be part of an expanded map. And some polls have shown tightening there.

(Excerpt) Read more at politico.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Pennsylvania
KEYWORDS: 2012swimgstates; pa2012; pennsylvania; polls

1 posted on 10/30/2012 1:13:48 PM PDT by nhwingut
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To: nhwingut

This is going to make for a great Hitler You Tube video; in the bunker, ordering around phantom fraudulent voters that don’t exist.


2 posted on 10/30/2012 1:17:42 PM PDT by henkster (If you let them do it to you, you got yourself to blame.)
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To: PA Engineer; MestaMachine; smoothsailing; nhwingut
GO Pennsylvania!

GO ROMNEY/RYAN!!!




The Place for Conservatives
WooHoo!!


3 posted on 10/30/2012 1:20:44 PM PDT by onyx (FREE REPUBLIC IS HERE TO STAY! DONATE MONTHLY! IF YOU WANT ON SARAH PALIN''S PING LIST, LET ME KNOW)
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To: nhwingut

Is this good or is it a sign Romney can’t crack ohio? Man I am nervous. Sorry in advance for the hand wringing.


4 posted on 10/30/2012 1:20:44 PM PDT by Tulane
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To: nhwingut

If I understand correctly, PA has very restricted early voting; therefore, unlike some other swing states, most folks have NOT voted before election day, and so aren’t beyond influence.

Therefore it’s a good place to dump any last-minute leftover campaign cash, including spare change you find in the sofa cushions of the campaign bus.


5 posted on 10/30/2012 1:21:44 PM PDT by Nervous Tick ("You can ignore reality, but you can't ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.")
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To: nhwingut
November 3, 2010

Toomey at Helm of a Republican Wave in Pennsylvania

"ST. DAVIDS, Pa. — Pat Toomey, a former Republican congressman, defeated Representative Joe Sestak, a Democrat, on Tuesday in a razor-thin Senate race in Pennsylvania that was not called for hours after polls closed."

6 posted on 10/30/2012 1:31:32 PM PDT by agrarianlady
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To: Tulane

Romney’s got a lead or at worst tied in Ohio, with the incumbent below 50%. They wouldn’t extend resources to less likely states if they didn’t have Ohio covered.


7 posted on 10/30/2012 1:32:31 PM PDT by ilgipper (Obama supporters are comprised of the uninformed & the ill-informed)
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To: Nervous Tick

Rove looked pretty depressed on Cavuto a few minutes ago. He certainly stuck to talking points about patterns, but didn’t sound optimistic. Agree, I don’t know how to take the PA thing...You’d think that if Mitt is close in PA, close in MI, MN, etc etc, he’d be way up in Ohio, but he’s not getting any traction there.


8 posted on 10/30/2012 1:35:33 PM PDT by samkatz
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To: ilgipper

The polls in Ohio for whatever reason just won’t turn (with the exception of Rasmussen). I think Obama is going to win this election because ultimately the modern world has decided that ultimately freedom is too big of a responsibility. Sadly, I’m not being sarcastic


9 posted on 10/30/2012 1:35:51 PM PDT by wiseprince
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To: nhwingut

I hope that is a head fake and Rom/Ryan are really going to pour cash in Michigan & Wisc.


10 posted on 10/30/2012 1:36:26 PM PDT by CThomasFan
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To: Tulane
Is this good or is it a sign Romney can’t crack ohio?

Romney is tied (at worst) in Ohio with a president who sits at 47% nationally. This PA buy is about expanding the map.

Obama is responding with their own PA buys, clearly saying they are concerned. If Obama did not respond then it would show to be a last minute way to excite base, rack up some national votes, and burn some remaining cash.
11 posted on 10/30/2012 1:37:33 PM PDT by nhwingut (If you are concerned, you are not paying attention (or you are a troll). It will be a landslide.)
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To: Tulane
Is this good or is it a sign Romney can’t crack ohio?

No.. he's caught and passed Obama in Ohio (Ras R 50, O 48) and the consortium of state newspaper poll has the two tied at 49-49. He's doing fine there. PA is reach into long-held democrat territory.

12 posted on 10/30/2012 1:41:30 PM PDT by ScottinVA (Record high turnout is our hope for sending 0bama home. Pray hard!!!)
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To: nhwingut

As I predicted two weeks ago now, Ohio will be a Romney given and the story will shift to PA.


13 posted on 10/30/2012 1:46:30 PM PDT by TheRhinelander
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To: samkatz
You’d think that if Mitt is close in PA, close in MI, MN, etc etc, he’d be way up in Ohio, but he’s not getting any traction there.

How is Romney not gaining traction in Ohio?

IN RCP of averages, he was down 4.2 points 2 weeks ago. Today he's down 1.9 with polls (other than Rasmussen) that sample anywhere from D+3 to D+9 (which is laughable).
14 posted on 10/30/2012 1:46:46 PM PDT by nhwingut (If you are concerned, you are not paying attention (or you are a troll). It will be a landslide.)
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To: fatima; Fresh Wind; st.eqed; xsmommy; House Atreides; Nowhere Man; South Hawthorne; brityank; ...

PA Ping!

If you want on/off the PA Ping List, please freepmail me.

If you see posts of interest to Pennsylvanians, please ping me.

Thanks!


15 posted on 10/30/2012 1:47:58 PM PDT by randita
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To: onyx; randita

This is one of the ads us bitter clingers here in PA may be seeing soon.....

“Four years ago, Barack Obama said building a coal-powered plant will bankrupt you.

Now, 22 Pennsylvania coal facilities will close or convert.

Mitt Romney will support coal and get North America energy independent.”

http://www.mittromney.com/forms/crushed-your-policies


16 posted on 10/30/2012 1:49:01 PM PDT by smoothsailing
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To: samkatz
he does not sound depressed here.

Romney has the momentum in the final days of the campaign, with 2 states moving in his direction in my latest map. bit.ly/SsVqqs— Karl Rove (@KarlRove) October 29, 2012


17 posted on 10/30/2012 1:50:01 PM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: samkatz
Rove looked pretty depressed on Cavuto a few minutes ago.

Didn't look depressed to me. Talking about how Romney is ahead of Obama in Gallup's early voting poll (which is a nightmare for Obama).
18 posted on 10/30/2012 1:51:26 PM PDT by nhwingut (If you are concerned, you are not paying attention (or you are a troll). It will be a landslide.)
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To: nhwingut
Chick-Fil-A appreciation day was a proxy for voting against Ubama on November 6th.

The anti-Ubama vote is going to show up, big-time.

19 posted on 10/30/2012 1:52:53 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum (Government is the religion of the psychopath.)
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To: samkatz
Rove looked pretty depressed on Cavuto a few minutes ago. He certainly stuck to talking points about patterns, but didn’t sound optimistic.

Rove had a 90 minute symposium with Hugh Hewitt, Dennis Prager, and others this weekend where he laid out, in detail, how Romney was going to win the election next Tuesday. Not "if", but "how".

Rest assured - if Romney was trailing in Ohio, he wouldn't be spending in Pennsylvania. Oh, and BTW - he isn't trailing in Ohio. :)

20 posted on 10/30/2012 2:00:08 PM PDT by TonyInOhio (Defend Freedom / Defeat Obama)
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To: nhwingut
Practice safe Voting,
Use protection.
Read up on Benghazi before you vote.
21 posted on 10/30/2012 2:04:21 PM PDT by American Constitutionalist
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To: samkatz

Maybe he ate a bad taco and was just trying to make it through interview. People can “seem” different ways due to circumstances beyond what they are talking about at the time.


22 posted on 10/30/2012 2:07:37 PM PDT by Crimson Elephant
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To: Perdogg

Thank you. I was just responding to samkatz’s post when I saw yours. I heard Rove yesterday at a gathering in Denver on Hugh Hewitts’ show and his citation of how great the early #’s look in Ohio sounded anything but depressed.

I’m not sure what Rove was doing for samkats to think he was depressed.


23 posted on 10/30/2012 2:10:49 PM PDT by ctpsb (Thanks.)
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To: TonyInOhio

Sorry Tony. I just saw your post after I posted mine. Didn’t meant to repeat what you said but obviously we’re thinking the same thing.


24 posted on 10/30/2012 2:13:01 PM PDT by ctpsb (Thanks.)
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To: smoothsailing

There are a lot of Pennsylvanians without power - most of them in the Philly area. If they don’t get power up and running in a couple of days, those people are going to be angry. Something will be the target of that anger and I think it will be the federal gubmint (just like Katrina).

In last year’s Halloween storm, a lot of people in northeastern PA were without power for days, not necessarily in rural areas.

No doubt Obama thinks he will benefit politically by the storm, but this is a double edged sword.


25 posted on 10/30/2012 2:14:14 PM PDT by randita
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To: Tulane
Is this good or is it a sign Romney can’t crack ohio? Man I am nervous. Sorry in advance for the hand wringing.

Romney may have decided that he's got his message out well enough in OH, and more ad buys would not convince anybody who was not already convinced by the prior ads.

26 posted on 10/30/2012 2:15:43 PM PDT by PapaBear3625 (political correctness is communist thought control, disguised as good manners)
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To: nhwingut
That's a slogan to send to those in PA..

Practice Safe Voting... Use protection.. Read up on Benghazi before you vote..
27 posted on 10/30/2012 2:19:37 PM PDT by American Constitutionalist
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To: Tulane

It’s all good...try to read Rush’s transcripts today. No hand wringing, promise? :)


28 posted on 10/30/2012 2:20:15 PM PDT by Miss Didi ("After all...tomorrow is another day." Scarlett O'Hara, Gone with the Wind)
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To: PapaBear3625

Also you probably get a little carry over from Western PA into Eastern Ohio on some of the stations.


29 posted on 10/30/2012 2:20:48 PM PDT by shoedog
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To: PapaBear3625

I would seriously doubt at this point that there are any available slots to purchase in Ohio...I’m sure they were bought out long ago.


30 posted on 10/30/2012 2:25:55 PM PDT by Republican Wildcat
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To: nhwingut
Reading through a DU election thread, I ran across a short conversation between 2 party activists.

One said he had just gotten off the phone with a party muckety-muck in Minnesota who was in a full blown panic looking for more volunteers. Both DU posters acknowledged this wasn't good news, because it meant they were now having to go back and defend areas they thought were safely locked up.

...and unsurprisingly, very little discussion about polls...hehehe...

31 posted on 10/30/2012 2:47:33 PM PDT by Tex-Con-Man (Muppet season now open - no bag limit)
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To: randita

I agree with you. When people are grumpy on election day, it’s probably not a good day to be an incumbent. :)


32 posted on 10/30/2012 2:48:23 PM PDT by smoothsailing
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To: smoothsailing



That's really GOOD!
33 posted on 10/30/2012 2:51:11 PM PDT by onyx (FREE REPUBLIC IS HERE TO STAY! DONATE MONTHLY! IF YOU WANT ON SARAH PALIN''S PING LIST, LET ME KNOW)
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To: nhwingut
said, "sample anywhere from D+3 to D+9 (which is laughable). "

To me that is the level of voter fraud if they are measuring it correctly

34 posted on 10/30/2012 2:58:51 PM PDT by Steve Van Doorn (*in my best Eric Cartman voice* 'I love you, guys')
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To: wiseprince

If only the Massachusetts-Mitt had not come in The Hillary of Massachusetts clothing.

Propping up the phony financial paradigm peddlers, won’t cut it.


35 posted on 10/30/2012 3:11:57 PM PDT by Varsity Flight (Extortion-Care is the Government Work-Camp: Arbeitsziehungslager)
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To: samkatz

Rove is a very good tactician and perfected micro-targeting. But he not as smart as he thinks he is about polling. He believes in them too much. In 2004, he shared the leak of the raw polls with Bush, on the flight from Texas to Ohio, telling the President he had been defeated. Bush took the “news” well and never let on that he “knew” he had been defeated. Turns out those raw polls were wrong. The model by which those polls were constructed wasn’t yet reconciled against the actual tabulation of the vote.

In one poll of 750, Rasmussen shows Romney up in Ohio by 2 points. Everybody else shows the state tied or Obama ahead by a few points, but below 50. Even if all these polls imbedded the correct turnout model, we would still have a decent chance of winning, as the incumbent is less than 50 percent and we’re the challenger.

But, there is also turnout uncertainty. The other poll-takers tend to imbed a 2008 turnout model if not in partisan mix, then in demographic mix which is effectively the same thing. But, we have lots of reasons to suspect that the turnout will be something in between 2004 and 2008. Rasmussen, who weights by a trailing average of partisan mix, may himself be understating Romney’s strength, as self-identification is a pretty fluid in Ohio since the state does not register voter by party.

Now, as to spreading the field: There are several considerations as to where to spend additional campaign dollars. Ohio is saturated. $2.6 million more in Ohio won’t have much effect. But, $2.6 million in Pennsylvania, countered by only $600,000 from the other side, can move the numbers a point or two. This might tilt the balance in Pennsylvania, providing insurance, precluding a lawsuit, and helping with a Senate race.


36 posted on 10/30/2012 3:35:25 PM PDT by Redmen4ever
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To: wiseprince

Real tower of strength, you are .. pffft !


37 posted on 10/30/2012 3:49:47 PM PDT by tomkat
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To: nhwingut

             

38 posted on 10/30/2012 3:50:27 PM PDT by tomkat
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To: samkatz

             

39 posted on 10/30/2012 3:53:27 PM PDT by tomkat
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To: henkster

lol....i remember from my college days reading, the rise and fall of the third reich. the last couple of days hitler was hoping a battalion was going to stop the allied army that was outide berlin. his generals, if i remember were lying to him just to avoid his wrath, and he kept saying, of the battalion, “where’s steiner”. hilarious if you are aww2 junkie.


40 posted on 10/30/2012 4:04:04 PM PDT by willywill
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To: willywill

Tom Smith’s ads about the coal industry are heart-tugging and effective. Romney should talk about Obama’s war on coal.


41 posted on 10/30/2012 4:58:40 PM PDT by Ciexyz
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To: Tulane
I think the Romney campaign has been subtly working Pennsylvania this whole time. Right here in the heart of the liberal Jewish Philadelphia suburbs, the Romney campaign put a headquarters. I don't recall ever seeing one here. Also, I had a guy from the Romney campaign come knock on my door two weekends ago. We've had door to door campaigners for local elections but I don't ever recall a door to door campaign here for the presidency.

That said, my friends in the know in Republican politics say that while Pennsylvania is close - much closer than they expected - Obama's still going to win it.

42 posted on 10/31/2012 4:32:17 AM PDT by old and tired
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