Skip to comments.Survey: Obama has slim 3-point lead in Michigan as Romney gains support
Posted on 10/30/2012 8:16:35 PM PDT by Arec Barrwin
Survey: Obama has slim 3-point lead in Michigan as Romney gains support
Survey results show President Obama maintains support in Michigan as Mitt Romney gains support among male voters
Author: Mara MacDonald, Local 4 Reporter
Published On: Oct 30 2012 10:39:05 PM EDT Updated On: Oct 30 2012 10:56:50 PM EDT
Obama's lead in Michigan cut to 3 points DETROIT -
Voting-for According to the results of a political survey commissioned by the Detroit News and WDIV Local 4, Michigan is a three-point race with President Obama in the lead.
Obama has less than 50 percent of the vote in Michigan which is an uncomfortable position for any incumbent. The President's support in this state has remained consistent. It's Republican candidate Mitt Romney's gains in Michigan which are significant.
According to the survey, 47.7 percent of respondents said they would vote for President Obama while 45 percent said they would vote for Romney. One must look at the breakdown to determine where voters are in this state.
Romney has a 6-point lead among male voters. That's a gain for the Republican candidate.
"This is all about turnout," said pollster Richard Czuba. "If Democrats turn out their voters, they win. If Republicans turn out more, they win. It's a pretty simple equation, as difficult as campaigns are."
Romney leads Oakland County by 8.9 percent and Macomb County by 16 percent. Obama is up by 15.7 percent in Wayne County. That number does not include the city of Detroit where Obama owns nearly all votes.
Debbie Stabenow has big lead in Michigan's US Senate race
According to the survey results, Democratic U.S. Senate incumbent Debbie Stabenow has 52.4 percent of the vote in Michigan to Republican Pete Hoekstra's 37.5 percent. Insiders say this is due to poor campaign management from Hoekstra's team.
"Well, I think the question is, is there really a Senate race on? Because the voters don't seem to be engaged in this race and Debbie Stabenow looks like she is moving toward a comfortable win on election night," said Czuba.
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It is odd that Detroit has lost population in every census since 1950, but it still dominates liberal MI. Look for Obama to win there. There are just too many soccer moms to overcome.
If Romnney carries Oakland by 9 and Mccomb by 16 then he will win fairy eaiser on election night.
No - its Detroit and the affluent suburbs around it.
To win MI, Romney has to do very well in the latter. Those have voted for Democrats for twenty years.
Independents... Let’s roll and squash the big O here ( and the big failure S lady too!)
Why didn’t Debbie Stabenow debate Pete Hoekstra?
why didn’t they do a democratic necessity???
how can the Democrats get away with this in Michigan?????
If Mitt loses Michigan could it be because of Pete Hoekstra’s lack of money
I contributed to him. He seemed a good person — would repeal Obamacare.
The Stabenow results are actually relieving in a perverse sense — it means this isn’t a poll with a high GOP sample. If it had been Stabenow in close to a dead heat too then I’d think it was a skewed sample (national GOP Senate campaign isn’t doing much for Hoekstra, which means we’re stuck with dim Debbie another six years).
So there likely is something to this poll on the Presidential side; it’s not some outlier driven by a bad sample.
Internals and so forth can be found here:
Sample (with leaners) is Dem +3.4, which is not out of line (I’ll leave it to those with historical data to judge things, but it doesn’t stink to high heaven). Romney’s lead among independents is only 4 points, which is surprising, he’s as close as he is because Republicans are supporting him more strongly than Democrats are supporting Obama.
It also appears that the ballot proposals are in deep doo-doo, especially the collective bargaining and renewable energy proposals.
Pete Hoekstra ran a terrible campaign and he doesn’t have a chance.
Stabenow’s numbers are far than better than Obama’s. It should be the other way around!
The msm would have us believe that Obama is winning Ohio by 3pts and only winning by 2.7 pts in Michigan. It just does not jive. Romney will win Ohio by 3 pts if this number in Michigan is true.
we need a big state...more than Florida/Va/NC/Col....we need a Wisconsin and an Ohio ....
Ohio has shifted to Romney
For those of us in Michigan Prop 2 & Prop 3 passing would be about as devastating as Obama winning a second term, and this is not hyperbole.
Tip for the future: breakdown the issues at hand regarding Michigan Prop 2 and 3.
Unfortunately, Ohio is the place where Democrats are most active in getting illegal voters to reelect Obama, I think that is where they have the best chance of winning by cheating.
I really hope we do not need Ohio and Wisconsin, since Romeny’s chances of winning both these states are slim to none. Getting Florida, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa and North Carolina will be a miracle. I don’t think getting all of those plus Wisconsin and Ohio is feasible for Romeny.
Mitt’s numbers are not changing — the pollsters are just needing to start reporting the real numbers this week in order to not compromise their credibility any further.
Getting Florida, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa and North Carolina will be a miracle. I dont think getting all of those plus Wisconsin and Ohio is feasible for Romeny.
If Romney gets Florida, Virginia, Colorado, North Carolina,and Ohio, he won’t need Iowa or Wisconsin.
“I really hope we do not need Ohio and Wisconsin, since Romenys chances of winning both these states are slim to none. Getting Florida, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa and North Carolina will be a miracle. I dont think getting all of those plus Wisconsin and Ohio is feasible for Romeny.”
That is why its good Romney has the people he has.
They dont think like this.
That is entirely wrong. In 2012 republicans own the following offices: Governor, Senate, House, Supreme Court, Attorney General, Secretary of State, Treasurer. All are state-wide elective offices.
In Ohio, the secretary of state runs elections and is, by law, responsible for them. Since the Sec State is a Republican, the chances of cheating are FAR LESS than they were in 2008, when the Governor and the Sec State were democrats.
Expect a fair, impartial election, and if there are challenges, they will be handled by a republican Sec State, Attorney General, and a majority Republican State Supreme Court.
And, if it goes to the US Supreme Court, who do you think has the majority there? I'd also point out that the court of appeals in Cincinnati has a history of being conservative and rational.
Prop 2 would enshrine collective bargaining as a right in the Michigan Constitution. That part, while not ideal, isn't particularly problematic (other than the effective ban on a potential right to work law) as there's no effort to repeal collective bargaining. The problem is that the proposal goes beyond that -- it would also bar the state from intervening on any issue that potentially could be subject to collective bargaining.
That would ex post facto repeal numerous laws on health care cost sharing, school safety, and so forth, and would repeal significant reforms put into place over the past few years (some of which even were enacted under Democratic Governor Granholm). The cost could be huge, in the hundreds of millions if not more.
Prop 3 would mandate 25% of energy be from renewables (up from 10% per state statute). That would increase costs, especially for business.
The other problem is that both of these are constitutional amendments, so if there are problems with them, there's no way to change them without another referendum. It's much easier to amend a statute.