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Survey: Obama has slim 3-point lead in Michigan as Romney gains support
WDIV Local 4 / Detroit News ^ | October 30, 2012 | Marisa Schultz and Kim Kozlowski

Posted on 10/30/2012 8:16:35 PM PDT by Arec Barrwin

Survey: Obama has slim 3-point lead in Michigan as Romney gains support

Survey results show President Obama maintains support in Michigan as Mitt Romney gains support among male voters

Author: Mara MacDonald, Local 4 Reporter

Published On: Oct 30 2012 10:39:05 PM EDT Updated On: Oct 30 2012 10:56:50 PM EDT

Obama's lead in Michigan cut to 3 points DETROIT -

Voting-for According to the results of a political survey commissioned by the Detroit News and WDIV Local 4, Michigan is a three-point race with President Obama in the lead.

Obama has less than 50 percent of the vote in Michigan which is an uncomfortable position for any incumbent. The President's support in this state has remained consistent. It's Republican candidate Mitt Romney's gains in Michigan which are significant.

According to the survey, 47.7 percent of respondents said they would vote for President Obama while 45 percent said they would vote for Romney. One must look at the breakdown to determine where voters are in this state.

Romney has a 6-point lead among male voters. That's a gain for the Republican candidate.

"This is all about turnout," said pollster Richard Czuba. "If Democrats turn out their voters, they win. If Republicans turn out more, they win. It's a pretty simple equation, as difficult as campaigns are."

Romney leads Oakland County by 8.9 percent and Macomb County by 16 percent. Obama is up by 15.7 percent in Wayne County. That number does not include the city of Detroit where Obama owns nearly all votes.

Debbie Stabenow has big lead in Michigan's US Senate race

According to the survey results, Democratic U.S. Senate incumbent Debbie Stabenow has 52.4 percent of the vote in Michigan to Republican Pete Hoekstra's 37.5 percent. Insiders say this is due to poor campaign management from Hoekstra's team.

"Well, I think the question is, is there really a Senate race on? Because the voters don't seem to be engaged in this race and Debbie Stabenow looks like she is moving toward a comfortable win on election night," said Czuba.

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Copyright 2012 by ClickOnDetroit.com. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Michigan
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; 2012swingstates; mi2012; michigan; obama; poll; romney
#Mittmentum
1 posted on 10/30/2012 8:16:49 PM PDT by Arec Barrwin
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To: Arec Barrwin

It is odd that Detroit has lost population in every census since 1950, but it still dominates liberal MI. Look for Obama to win there. There are just too many soccer moms to overcome.


2 posted on 10/30/2012 8:26:18 PM PDT by Theodore R. (Annoy the Establishment! Vote for Akin!)
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To: Theodore R.

If Romnney carries Oakland by 9 and Mccomb by 16 then he will win fairy eaiser on election night.


3 posted on 10/30/2012 8:29:23 PM PDT by Paul8148
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To: Theodore R.

No - its Detroit and the affluent suburbs around it.

To win MI, Romney has to do very well in the latter. Those have voted for Democrats for twenty years.


4 posted on 10/30/2012 8:29:42 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved FrieGrnd Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Arec Barrwin

Independents... Let’s roll and squash the big O here ( and the big failure S lady too!)


5 posted on 10/30/2012 8:29:42 PM PDT by wubjo (nO Terrorists; nO Tyranny; nObama)
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To: wubjo

Why didn’t Debbie Stabenow debate Pete Hoekstra?

why didn’t they do a democratic necessity???

how can the Democrats get away with this in Michigan?????

If Mitt loses Michigan could it be because of Pete Hoekstra’s lack of money
and campaign???

I contributed to him. He seemed a good person — would repeal Obamacare.


6 posted on 10/30/2012 8:32:47 PM PDT by preamble
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To: Arec Barrwin

The Stabenow results are actually relieving in a perverse sense — it means this isn’t a poll with a high GOP sample. If it had been Stabenow in close to a dead heat too then I’d think it was a skewed sample (national GOP Senate campaign isn’t doing much for Hoekstra, which means we’re stuck with dim Debbie another six years).

So there likely is something to this poll on the Presidential side; it’s not some outlier driven by a bad sample.


7 posted on 10/30/2012 8:35:46 PM PDT by Numbers Guy
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To: Arec Barrwin

Internals and so forth can be found here:

http://www.clickondetroit.com/blob/view/-/17202258/data/1/-/15knpck/-/Michigan-survey-results.pdf

Sample (with leaners) is Dem +3.4, which is not out of line (I’ll leave it to those with historical data to judge things, but it doesn’t stink to high heaven). Romney’s lead among independents is only 4 points, which is surprising, he’s as close as he is because Republicans are supporting him more strongly than Democrats are supporting Obama.

It also appears that the ballot proposals are in deep doo-doo, especially the collective bargaining and renewable energy proposals.


8 posted on 10/30/2012 8:45:20 PM PDT by Numbers Guy
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To: preamble

Pete Hoekstra ran a terrible campaign and he doesn’t have a chance.

Stabenow’s numbers are far than better than Obama’s. It should be the other way around!


9 posted on 10/30/2012 8:47:31 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved FrieGrnd Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Arec Barrwin

The msm would have us believe that Obama is winning Ohio by 3pts and only winning by 2.7 pts in Michigan. It just does not jive. Romney will win Ohio by 3 pts if this number in Michigan is true.


10 posted on 10/30/2012 9:03:14 PM PDT by MarkFLA77
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To: wubjo

we need a big state...more than Florida/Va/NC/Col....we need a Wisconsin and an Ohio ....


11 posted on 10/30/2012 9:08:39 PM PDT by cherry
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To: cherry

Ohio has shifted to Romney


12 posted on 10/30/2012 9:15:44 PM PDT by scooby321 (AMS)
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To: Numbers Guy

For those of us in Michigan Prop 2 & Prop 3 passing would be about as devastating as Obama winning a second term, and this is not hyperbole.


13 posted on 10/30/2012 9:41:35 PM PDT by ConservativeTeen (Proud Right Wing Extremist)
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To: ConservativeTeen

Tip for the future: breakdown the issues at hand regarding Michigan Prop 2 and 3.


14 posted on 10/30/2012 10:11:15 PM PDT by torchthemummy (Middle East Islamic Democracy: "One Man, One Vote, One Time")
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To: scooby321; cherry

Unfortunately, Ohio is the place where Democrats are most active in getting illegal voters to reelect Obama, I think that is where they have the best chance of winning by cheating.

I really hope we do not need Ohio and Wisconsin, since Romeny’s chances of winning both these states are slim to none. Getting Florida, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa and North Carolina will be a miracle. I don’t think getting all of those plus Wisconsin and Ohio is feasible for Romeny.


15 posted on 10/30/2012 11:37:55 PM PDT by emax
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To: Arec Barrwin

Mitt’s numbers are not changing — the pollsters are just needing to start reporting the real numbers this week in order to not compromise their credibility any further.


16 posted on 10/31/2012 4:31:07 AM PDT by PapaBear3625 (political correctness is communist thought control, disguised as good manners)
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To: emax

Getting Florida, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa and North Carolina will be a miracle. I don’t think getting all of those plus Wisconsin and Ohio is feasible for Romeny.
_________________________________

If Romney gets Florida, Virginia, Colorado, North Carolina,and Ohio, he won’t need Iowa or Wisconsin.


17 posted on 10/31/2012 4:41:14 AM PDT by Rumierules
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To: emax

“I really hope we do not need Ohio and Wisconsin, since Romeny’s chances of winning both these states are slim to none. Getting Florida, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa and North Carolina will be a miracle. I don’t think getting all of those plus Wisconsin and Ohio is feasible for Romeny.”

That is why its good Romney has the people he has.

They dont think like this.


18 posted on 10/31/2012 4:44:05 AM PDT by VanDeKoik
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To: emax; scooby321; cherry
Unfortunately, Ohio is the place where Democrats are most active in getting illegal voters to reelect Obama, I think that is where they have the best chance of winning by cheating.

That is entirely wrong. In 2012 republicans own the following offices: Governor, Senate, House, Supreme Court, Attorney General, Secretary of State, Treasurer. All are state-wide elective offices.

In Ohio, the secretary of state runs elections and is, by law, responsible for them. Since the Sec State is a Republican, the chances of cheating are FAR LESS than they were in 2008, when the Governor and the Sec State were democrats.

Expect a fair, impartial election, and if there are challenges, they will be handled by a republican Sec State, Attorney General, and a majority Republican State Supreme Court.

And, if it goes to the US Supreme Court, who do you think has the majority there? I'd also point out that the court of appeals in Cincinnati has a history of being conservative and rational.

19 posted on 10/31/2012 5:15:09 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True supporters of our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: torchthemummy
Tip for the future: breakdown the issues at hand regarding Michigan Prop 2 and 3.

Prop 2 would enshrine collective bargaining as a right in the Michigan Constitution. That part, while not ideal, isn't particularly problematic (other than the effective ban on a potential right to work law) as there's no effort to repeal collective bargaining. The problem is that the proposal goes beyond that -- it would also bar the state from intervening on any issue that potentially could be subject to collective bargaining.

That would ex post facto repeal numerous laws on health care cost sharing, school safety, and so forth, and would repeal significant reforms put into place over the past few years (some of which even were enacted under Democratic Governor Granholm). The cost could be huge, in the hundreds of millions if not more.

Prop 3 would mandate 25% of energy be from renewables (up from 10% per state statute). That would increase costs, especially for business.

The other problem is that both of these are constitutional amendments, so if there are problems with them, there's no way to change them without another referendum. It's much easier to amend a statute.

20 posted on 10/31/2012 5:46:46 AM PDT by Numbers Guy
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To: emax

How many threads are you trolling crying about losing Ohio? Take a Xanax.


21 posted on 10/31/2012 5:54:14 AM PDT by wiggen (The teacher card. When the racism card just won't work.)
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To: Paul8148
If Romney carries Oakland by 9 and Mccomb by 16 then he will win fairy eaiser on election night.

You forgot Wayne by 2...

Darn shame Pete Hoekstra is such a dullard politically and doesn't like to campaign. Good man yes, campaigner no, I wish Doc' Steele would have gone for the seat....

22 posted on 10/31/2012 5:54:44 AM PDT by taildragger (( Fubarward Obama 2012, think about it :-) ))
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To: Paul8148
If Romney carries Oakland by 9 and Mccomb by 16 then he will win fairy eaiser on election night.

You forgot Wayne by 2...

Darn shame Pete Hoekstra is such a dullard politically and doesn't like to campaign. Good man yes, campaigner no, I wish Doc' Steele would have gone for the seat....

23 posted on 10/31/2012 5:54:49 AM PDT by taildragger (( Fubarward Obama 2012, think about it :-) ))
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To: Arec Barrwin; Theodore R.; Paul8148; goldstategop; wubjo; preamble; Numbers Guy; MarkFLA77; ...
#Mittmentum

Horrific. After four years of disaster, a horrible campaign, destruction of industry, disaster abroad....Americans in Michigan are apparently evenly split over communism or capitalism.

Kruschev is banging his shoe on the lid of his coffin.

24 posted on 10/31/2012 6:37:15 AM PDT by sam_paine (X .................................)
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To: wiggen
Take a Xanax.

God forbid anyone take a look at these polls sober, right?

25 posted on 10/31/2012 6:40:05 AM PDT by sam_paine (X .................................)
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To: sam_paine
When you're robbing Peter to pay Paul, you can find a bunch of Pauls to vote for you.

The Welfare State must be destroyed.

26 posted on 10/31/2012 6:51:09 AM PDT by PapaBear3625 (political correctness is communist thought control, disguised as good manners)
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To: PapaBear3625
The Welfare State must be destroyed.

But how? It's too unpopular to reduce it, much less dismantle it.

The only way I can see is if there were a business boom where working was more lucrative and easier than the unions or ward bosses could offer.

Perhaps if we had free energy and replicators in every house.

27 posted on 10/31/2012 6:57:52 AM PDT by sam_paine (X .................................)
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To: goldstategop

If Hoekstra wins it will only be by Romney’s coattails. Obama is so disliked, when has a challenger ever had coattails? I think we will see it here. I think Michigan will go for Romney.


28 posted on 10/31/2012 7:02:41 AM PDT by MomwithHope (Buy and read Ameritopia by Mark Levin!)
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To: sam_paine
But how? It's too unpopular to reduce it, much less dismantle it. The only way I can see is if there were a business boom where working was more lucrative and easier than the unions or ward bosses could offer.

We can work to dismantle it now, when the cost in blood will be relatively low. Or we can wait until financial collapse and deal with a bloody civil war. Those are the only two choices.

By slowly and steadily reducing benefits, we can get to the point where underclass women decide that getting their tubes tied and getting a job is a better deal than being a welfare mom.

I prefer that to having to pile up bodies in the street for the trucks to take away after the riots. Especially if the bodies are likely to include those of family, friends, and neighbors.

29 posted on 10/31/2012 7:06:56 AM PDT by PapaBear3625 (political correctness is communist thought control, disguised as good manners)
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To: PapaBear3625
We can work to dismantle it now, when the cost in blood will be relatively low. Or we can wait until financial collapse and deal with a bloody civil war. Those are the only two choices.

I really believe there may be a third option. A flanking maneuver. Grow the economy such that welfare isn't profitable. It can be done with cheap energy easing business obstacles.

The only way to educate these people now is OJT.

30 posted on 10/31/2012 7:30:13 AM PDT by sam_paine (X .................................)
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To: sam_paine
I really believe there may be a third option. A flanking maneuver. Grow the economy such that welfare isn't profitable. It can be done with cheap energy easing business obstacles.

Whether it's done by lowering benefits, or by raising the salaries of entry-level jobs, the advantage of welfare over work needs to be eliminated.

If the economy improves, you will see similar screaming over "disparities", and calls for welfare benefits to be raised, as you would see if benefits were lowered.

31 posted on 10/31/2012 8:11:14 AM PDT by PapaBear3625 (political correctness is communist thought control, disguised as good manners)
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To: cherry
we need a big state...more than Florida/Va/NC/Col....we need a Wisconsin and an Ohio ....

OH - 18 electoral votes; MI - 16 ; WI - 10; PA - 20...

GO!! GO!! GO!! GO VOTE; MI, OH, WI, PA!!! DUMP THE OBUMSTER.

32 posted on 10/31/2012 9:09:51 AM PDT by wubjo (nO Terrorists; nO Tyranny; nObama)
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To: taildragger
I agree about Hoekstra.

Doc Steele is running though, for UM Regent. Good man, and he's running an active campaign. I voted for him absentee.

33 posted on 10/31/2012 9:26:06 AM PDT by Darren McCarty (Holding my nose one more time to get rid of Eric Holder)
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To: xzins
And, if it goes to the US Supreme Court, who do you think has the majority there?

Depends on whether or not Roberts is smoking crack at the time.

34 posted on 10/31/2012 1:59:06 PM PDT by gundog (Help us, Nairobi-Wan Kenobi...you're our only hope.)
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