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New Franklin & Marshall poll shows Romney closes gap on Obama in Pennsylvania (0 48, R 44)
Lancaster Online ^ | 10-30

Posted on 10/30/2012 9:18:59 PM PDT by Arthurio

Oct 31, 2012 00:01

Election 2012: Franklin & Marshall College Poll

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By KAREN SHUEY Staff Writer

Less than a week before Election Day, the presidential race between President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney is closer than it's ever been in Pennsylvania, a new Franklin & Marshall College poll shows.

The poll, released this morning, shows Obama with a 4-point lead over Romney among likely voters in the state. Obama led Romney by 9 percentage points in the college's September poll.

Romney's gain reflects the former Massachusetts governor's recent ability to connect with middle-class voters here, poll director G. Terry Madonna said.

"(Romney) was on his way to losing the election, but his performance in the debates really changed that," said Madonna, who heads F&M's Center for Politics and Public Affairs.

Read more: http://lancasteronline.com/article/local/767700_New-Franklin---Marshall-poll-shows-Romney-closes-gap-on-Obama-in-Pennsylvania.html#ixzz2AqYRIeAp

(Excerpt) Read more at lancasteronline.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Pennsylvania
KEYWORDS:

1 posted on 10/30/2012 9:19:07 PM PDT by Arthurio
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To: Arthurio

Obumble below 50% again...


2 posted on 10/30/2012 9:25:07 PM PDT by TheBigB (I voted 4 Obama & all I got was this lousy t-shirt & 15 mins in the back of a Prius with Sandy Fluke)
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To: TheBigB

internals democrats plus 8?


3 posted on 10/30/2012 9:26:41 PM PDT by scooby321 (AMS)
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To: Arthurio

Why do I get the strong feeling that Pennsylvania, Iowa, Virginia, and Wisconsin are all in the bag.. I still have the shakes about Ohio.. The Rats have known about the importance of Ohio, and have all of the crooks in place.. It’s their linchpin.. Gulp


4 posted on 10/30/2012 9:26:41 PM PDT by carlo3b (Less Government, more Fiber..)
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To: Arthurio; SeekAndFind; LS; Perdogg; napscoordinator; God luvs America; nutmeg; SoFloFreeper; ...

Poll ping.


5 posted on 10/30/2012 9:27:05 PM PDT by Jet Jaguar (The pundits have forgotten the 2010 elections.)
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To: Arthurio

50% Dem
37% Rep
11% Ind

And then only a 4 pt Obama lead.


6 posted on 10/30/2012 9:27:58 PM PDT by WILLIALAL
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To: carlo3b

The signs are all there for a large Romney win in 7 days. This feels like 2008 in reverse. We knew the last week in 2008, McCain was losing. And we know in 2012 Romney is winning.


7 posted on 10/30/2012 9:28:25 PM PDT by gswilder
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To: WILLIALAL

Wow. That tells me R is actually winning PA.


8 posted on 10/30/2012 9:29:37 PM PDT by gswilder
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To: Jet Jaguar

Nice!


9 posted on 10/30/2012 9:30:04 PM PDT by tatown (Obama was right, it was a 'one term proposition')
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To: Arthurio
Good sample; 50/37/13. Useless unless you now view Romney up 8
10 posted on 10/30/2012 9:30:14 PM PDT by Kozy (Calling Al Gore)
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To: Arthurio

I want to believe we can take PA.

I grew up there and remember many election nights where RATs jumped out to big early leads as Philly and Pittsburgh got their results in first only to see the lead disappear as the “T” started reporting their results.

There were a lot of nights where D’s went to bed thinking their guy had won only to be shocked the next morning.

Seems like forever since that has happened. Sure would love to see a repeat of it Tuesday night (although a Romney blowout win would be OK too, I suppose).


11 posted on 10/30/2012 9:30:32 PM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: Arthurio

just got this tweeted to me as well:

In 2008 the GOP edged the Democrats by just 2% in absentee returns. As of today the GOP’s lead is 18.8% — a 16.9% bump in a state Obama won by 10% in 2008. Republicans have turned in 55.2% of the absentee ballots to date while the Democrats have returned just 36.4%.


12 posted on 10/30/2012 9:30:49 PM PDT by Sarah Barracuda
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To: gswilder

“Wow. That tells me R is actually winning PA.”

Well this poll is so far left, that you can’t make any judgement from it.


13 posted on 10/30/2012 9:32:25 PM PDT by WILLIALAL
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To: carlo3b

If Romney wins all the states you list, then he does not need Ohio.... I still think in the end, he takes Ohio. He just needs to put Obama on defense again this week.


14 posted on 10/30/2012 9:34:35 PM PDT by Anti-Hillary (Barry, Barry quite contrary, how does your government grow?...)
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To: Arthurio

Poll Internals:
849 registered voters — 427 Democrats, 317 Republicans and 105 belonging to another party or unaffiliated

What a joke!


15 posted on 10/30/2012 9:35:20 PM PDT by ShovelThemOut
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To: WILLIALAL

Wow is that right?


16 posted on 10/30/2012 9:35:45 PM PDT by Ravi
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To: Arthurio

D50/R37/I13 sample.

A D+13 is high, even for Pennsylvania.


17 posted on 10/30/2012 9:39:09 PM PDT by smoothsailing
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To: smoothsailing

Actually pretty close to the registered voter information from 2010.


18 posted on 10/30/2012 9:50:36 PM PDT by CatOwner
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To: carlo3b

nothing is in the bag....don’t believe that....at least, pray....pray donate and vote is better...


19 posted on 10/30/2012 9:51:28 PM PDT by cherry
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To: Anti-Hillary

I hope we are both right.. :)


20 posted on 10/30/2012 9:58:04 PM PDT by carlo3b (Less Government, more Fiber..)
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To: CatOwner

That’s true, and it was a poor model for a sample then as well. Republicans beat the spread and won everything.

It’s shaping up to look similar this time around.


21 posted on 10/30/2012 9:59:14 PM PDT by smoothsailing
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To: cherry
nothing is in the bag....don’t believe that....at least, pray....pray donate and vote is better...

Naw, I don't think so.. It's in the bag, so I can just sit home on Nov 6, and watch reruns of Springer, and Cops.. :)

22 posted on 10/30/2012 10:01:59 PM PDT by carlo3b (Less Government, more Fiber..)
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To: gswilder
We knew the last week in 2008, McCain was losing

What do you mean "we" Kimosabe?

(I think it was well known, long before that)

23 posted on 10/30/2012 10:30:51 PM PDT by Michael.SF. (Obama Lied, Stevens died.)
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To: Jet Jaguar; Perdogg; LS; fieldmarshaldj; Impy; Clintonfatigued; AuH2ORepublican
Just now looking at a map of TV market maps, I realize that people on here and Twitter and elsewhere must have been wrong when they were speculating in weeks past that Romney/Ryan campaigning in western PA was meant mostly for eastern Ohio TV markets. Particularly in the case of Ryan's stop at the Pittsburgh airport, because the Pittsburgh TV market doesn't even go into Ohio. The two markets that cover the eastern OH border are for Youngstown, OH, and Steubenville, OH/Wheeling, WV. Only Youngstown's goes into PA, and only for a single county.

http://dishuser.org/TVMarkets/
http://dishuser.org/TVMarkets/Maps/ohio.gif
http://dishuser.org/TVMarkets/Maps/pennsylvania.gif
http://dishuser.org/TVMarkets/City%20Maps/Pittsburgh.gif
24 posted on 10/30/2012 11:50:24 PM PDT by MitchellC (President Evil: Redistribution // Biden 2016!)
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To: MitchellC

People were speaking out of ignorance, obviously.


25 posted on 10/31/2012 2:18:45 AM PDT by Impy (Don't call me red.)
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To: MitchellC

BTW, you mentioned Youngstown: our film “Rockin’ the Wall “ is on PBS nationally and for now is on in the Yougstown market in OH.


26 posted on 10/31/2012 4:13:16 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: WILLIALAL

D+ oversampling of 13+ and O’s only up by +4?

This is wildly unrealistic! More accurate numbers would show Romney is actually ahead in PA! He will win there next week.


27 posted on 10/31/2012 4:19:59 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved FrieGrnd Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: goldstategop

Considering that PA voter registration IS 50/37 in favor of the D’s, how exactly is this “oversampling”? Not every state has D’s and R’s registration exactly equal, despite what some morons assume (it keeps their math nice and simple).

The saving factor for the R’s is that our enthusiasm is greater than it was in 2008, and the Rats’ is less. But then there’s Massive Democrat Vote Fraud in Philly and elsewhere, which negates our enthusiasm bump.

Romney may pull this one out and hopefully drag Tom Smith over the finish line too, but anyone who is thinks Romney is really ahead in PA right now, much less ahead by a margin greater than MDVF, is delusional.


28 posted on 10/31/2012 6:13:22 AM PDT by PermaRag (If Trayvon had a father, he'd look just like Obama)
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To: PermaRag
Challenging Obama in the "light blue" states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan is useful strategy, as it forces the Democrats to spend resources in states they usually carry in Presidential races to obtain the needed 270 electoral votes. It strengthens Romney's cause in the "light red" states like Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida, as Obama's managers will pour more money into the marginally Democrat states.

However, this is not the same country it was in 1980 or 1984, so I doubt Obama will suffer the sort of thrashing Carter and Mondale received in those years. The GI Generation is mostly gone now, and the increased nonwhite population predominantly favors Democrats.

The election will be determined in the Buckeye State. If Romney wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin, it will be great, of course. Of the three, I would see Wisconsin as the best chance to flip, then Pennsylvania, and last Michigan.

29 posted on 10/31/2012 6:36:41 AM PDT by Wallace T.
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To: Wallace T.

I’m glad to see Ronmey finally being a little more aggressive in the states you mentioned, and it is not out of the realm of possibility that he can win PA. I’m very skeptical about MI and WI. MI is just too far gone for Romney to win, though he might make it close, and how a state (WI) which elected Scott Walker and Ron Johnson in 2010 can revert back to electing Bonzo for president and Bull Dyke Baldwin to the Senate is incredible but that’s just what may happen.

My point in the last post was just that people who shriek about “oversampling” should realize that the math isn’t as simple as they might like to believe. :-)

You’re right that there is zero chance of a 1984-ish landslide for Mitt; there are way too many animals feeding at the taxpayer-funded trough for the Plantation Party to ever get less than that ‘magic 47%’ of the vote. If they are as depressed as we were in 2008, maybe Mitt gets to 53-45 but no way in hell will we ever see 60-40 for a Republican under these conditions.


30 posted on 10/31/2012 6:46:02 AM PDT by PermaRag (If Trayvon had a father, he'd look just like Obama)
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To: smoothsailing
A D+13 is high, even for Pennsylvania.

Yet Republican internal polls are showing a similar slight advantage for Obama from 2 to 4 percent. I think a heavy rainstorm can keep the unenthused African American vote down in Philly. If that happens, we can win this. I have never seen such an unenthusiastic Black response to a white candidate running against a Black candidate. Huge, huge difference over 2008 where a drive through Black neighborhoods looked like Obama wallpaper.

31 posted on 10/31/2012 6:47:25 AM PDT by old and tired
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To: old and tired
oops. That should read I have never seen such an unenthusiastic Black response to a Black candidate running against a White candidate
32 posted on 10/31/2012 6:49:43 AM PDT by old and tired
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To: old and tired

“Yet Republican internal polls are showing a similar slight advantage for Obama from 2 to 4 percent”

That’s strange too, for their internals to show a similar result to this poll.

This poll has a D/R/I sample of 50/37/11 for a D+13

Actual exit polling in 2008 and 2010 for Pennsylvania:

2008 44/37/18 D+7
2010 40/37/23 D+3

2008 was a D blowout
2010 was a R blowout

Splitting the difference, wouldn’t a sensible model this year be D+5?


33 posted on 10/31/2012 8:50:19 AM PDT by smoothsailing
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To: smoothsailing
Splitting the difference, wouldn’t a sensible model this year be D+5?

Yes, it would. All I can tell you is I have two good friends in Republican politics here in PA and they're both telling me that Obama will probably win Pennsylvania. One of them tends to be a pessimist, but the other is an optimist if anything and they're both saying the same thing re: internal polling.

34 posted on 10/31/2012 9:08:16 AM PDT by old and tired
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To: old and tired

I’m active in Republican politics here in SW PA and it’s upbeat here but statewide assessments are much the same as you say. There’s no doubt at all that Romney/Ryan will sweep this region and Tom Smith will do the same.

I don’t expect Pittsburgh to be much of a factor, Allegheny county probably close to a wash.

The question as always comes down to Philadelphia and it’s collar counties.

That’s the main driver of the pessimism. But there are indications that the Philly area will not be the big D vote machine it’s been in the past.

If I was calling PA now, I’d call it a tossup with a slight Romney lean. I’m one of the optimists! :)


35 posted on 10/31/2012 10:04:10 AM PDT by smoothsailing
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To: smoothsailing
That’s the main driver of the pessimism. But there are indications that the Philly area will not be the big D vote machine it’s been in the past.

Well, I'm in Montgomery county just over the Philly line. It's going to be close. Obama just does not have the enthusiasm he had 4 years ago. In the last couple of weeks, I have begun seeing the Obama signs but nothing like last time. And interestingly, I happen to know the people with the Obama signs are hardcore liberals. In my neighborhood, there are three Obama and five Romney signs. Obama signs = a gay couple, a union organizer, and a radical feminist college professor. I don't live in an area full of these kinds of nuts. They (with the exception of the union organizer) stand out as extremists. And the union organizer and the college professor ALWAYS put the Dem signs on their lawns and cars. This is the gay couple's first foray into politics, but I suppose given 0's support for gay marriage, their sign is to be expected. . Otherwise, crickets. No question, Obama is not walking away with PA - he's going to have to work for it this time.

36 posted on 10/31/2012 12:12:08 PM PDT by old and tired
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