Skip to comments.New Franklin & Marshall poll shows Romney closes gap on Obama in Pennsylvania (0 48, R 44)
Posted on 10/30/2012 9:18:59 PM PDT by Arthurio
Oct 31, 2012 00:01
Election 2012: Franklin & Marshall College Poll
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By KAREN SHUEY Staff Writer
Less than a week before Election Day, the presidential race between President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney is closer than it's ever been in Pennsylvania, a new Franklin & Marshall College poll shows.
The poll, released this morning, shows Obama with a 4-point lead over Romney among likely voters in the state. Obama led Romney by 9 percentage points in the college's September poll.
Romney's gain reflects the former Massachusetts governor's recent ability to connect with middle-class voters here, poll director G. Terry Madonna said.
"(Romney) was on his way to losing the election, but his performance in the debates really changed that," said Madonna, who heads F&M's Center for Politics and Public Affairs.
Read more: http://lancasteronline.com/article/local/767700_New-Franklin---Marshall-poll-shows-Romney-closes-gap-on-Obama-in-Pennsylvania.html#ixzz2AqYRIeAp
(Excerpt) Read more at lancasteronline.com ...
That’s true, and it was a poor model for a sample then as well. Republicans beat the spread and won everything.
It’s shaping up to look similar this time around.
Naw, I don't think so.. It's in the bag, so I can just sit home on Nov 6, and watch reruns of Springer, and Cops.. :)
What do you mean "we" Kimosabe?
(I think it was well known, long before that)
People were speaking out of ignorance, obviously.
BTW, you mentioned Youngstown: our film “Rockin’ the Wall “ is on PBS nationally and for now is on in the Yougstown market in OH.
D+ oversampling of 13+ and O’s only up by +4?
This is wildly unrealistic! More accurate numbers would show Romney is actually ahead in PA! He will win there next week.
Considering that PA voter registration IS 50/37 in favor of the D’s, how exactly is this “oversampling”? Not every state has D’s and R’s registration exactly equal, despite what some morons assume (it keeps their math nice and simple).
The saving factor for the R’s is that our enthusiasm is greater than it was in 2008, and the Rats’ is less. But then there’s Massive Democrat Vote Fraud in Philly and elsewhere, which negates our enthusiasm bump.
Romney may pull this one out and hopefully drag Tom Smith over the finish line too, but anyone who is thinks Romney is really ahead in PA right now, much less ahead by a margin greater than MDVF, is delusional.
However, this is not the same country it was in 1980 or 1984, so I doubt Obama will suffer the sort of thrashing Carter and Mondale received in those years. The GI Generation is mostly gone now, and the increased nonwhite population predominantly favors Democrats.
The election will be determined in the Buckeye State. If Romney wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin, it will be great, of course. Of the three, I would see Wisconsin as the best chance to flip, then Pennsylvania, and last Michigan.
I’m glad to see Ronmey finally being a little more aggressive in the states you mentioned, and it is not out of the realm of possibility that he can win PA. I’m very skeptical about MI and WI. MI is just too far gone for Romney to win, though he might make it close, and how a state (WI) which elected Scott Walker and Ron Johnson in 2010 can revert back to electing Bonzo for president and Bull Dyke Baldwin to the Senate is incredible but that’s just what may happen.
My point in the last post was just that people who shriek about “oversampling” should realize that the math isn’t as simple as they might like to believe. :-)
You’re right that there is zero chance of a 1984-ish landslide for Mitt; there are way too many animals feeding at the taxpayer-funded trough for the Plantation Party to ever get less than that ‘magic 47%’ of the vote. If they are as depressed as we were in 2008, maybe Mitt gets to 53-45 but no way in hell will we ever see 60-40 for a Republican under these conditions.
Yet Republican internal polls are showing a similar slight advantage for Obama from 2 to 4 percent. I think a heavy rainstorm can keep the unenthused African American vote down in Philly. If that happens, we can win this. I have never seen such an unenthusiastic Black response to a white candidate running against a Black candidate. Huge, huge difference over 2008 where a drive through Black neighborhoods looked like Obama wallpaper.
“Yet Republican internal polls are showing a similar slight advantage for Obama from 2 to 4 percent”
That’s strange too, for their internals to show a similar result to this poll.
This poll has a D/R/I sample of 50/37/11 for a D+13
Actual exit polling in 2008 and 2010 for Pennsylvania:
2008 44/37/18 D+7
2010 40/37/23 D+3
2008 was a D blowout
2010 was a R blowout
Splitting the difference, wouldn’t a sensible model this year be D+5?
Yes, it would. All I can tell you is I have two good friends in Republican politics here in PA and they're both telling me that Obama will probably win Pennsylvania. One of them tends to be a pessimist, but the other is an optimist if anything and they're both saying the same thing re: internal polling.
I’m active in Republican politics here in SW PA and it’s upbeat here but statewide assessments are much the same as you say. There’s no doubt at all that Romney/Ryan will sweep this region and Tom Smith will do the same.
I don’t expect Pittsburgh to be much of a factor, Allegheny county probably close to a wash.
The question as always comes down to Philadelphia and it’s collar counties.
That’s the main driver of the pessimism. But there are indications that the Philly area will not be the big D vote machine it’s been in the past.
If I was calling PA now, I’d call it a tossup with a slight Romney lean. I’m one of the optimists! :)
Well, I'm in Montgomery county just over the Philly line. It's going to be close. Obama just does not have the enthusiasm he had 4 years ago. In the last couple of weeks, I have begun seeing the Obama signs but nothing like last time. And interestingly, I happen to know the people with the Obama signs are hardcore liberals. In my neighborhood, there are three Obama and five Romney signs. Obama signs = a gay couple, a union organizer, and a radical feminist college professor. I don't live in an area full of these kinds of nuts. They (with the exception of the union organizer) stand out as extremists. And the union organizer and the college professor ALWAYS put the Dem signs on their lawns and cars. This is the gay couple's first foray into politics, but I suppose given 0's support for gay marriage, their sign is to be expected. . Otherwise, crickets. No question, Obama is not walking away with PA - he's going to have to work for it this time.