Considering that PA voter registration IS 50/37 in favor of the D’s, how exactly is this “oversampling”? Not every state has D’s and R’s registration exactly equal, despite what some morons assume (it keeps their math nice and simple).
The saving factor for the R’s is that our enthusiasm is greater than it was in 2008, and the Rats’ is less. But then there’s Massive Democrat Vote Fraud in Philly and elsewhere, which negates our enthusiasm bump.
Romney may pull this one out and hopefully drag Tom Smith over the finish line too, but anyone who is thinks Romney is really ahead in PA right now, much less ahead by a margin greater than MDVF, is delusional.
However, this is not the same country it was in 1980 or 1984, so I doubt Obama will suffer the sort of thrashing Carter and Mondale received in those years. The GI Generation is mostly gone now, and the increased nonwhite population predominantly favors Democrats.
The election will be determined in the Buckeye State. If Romney wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin, it will be great, of course. Of the three, I would see Wisconsin as the best chance to flip, then Pennsylvania, and last Michigan.