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To: PermaRag
Challenging Obama in the "light blue" states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan is useful strategy, as it forces the Democrats to spend resources in states they usually carry in Presidential races to obtain the needed 270 electoral votes. It strengthens Romney's cause in the "light red" states like Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida, as Obama's managers will pour more money into the marginally Democrat states.

However, this is not the same country it was in 1980 or 1984, so I doubt Obama will suffer the sort of thrashing Carter and Mondale received in those years. The GI Generation is mostly gone now, and the increased nonwhite population predominantly favors Democrats.

The election will be determined in the Buckeye State. If Romney wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin, it will be great, of course. Of the three, I would see Wisconsin as the best chance to flip, then Pennsylvania, and last Michigan.

29 posted on 10/31/2012 6:36:41 AM PDT by Wallace T.
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To: Wallace T.

I’m glad to see Ronmey finally being a little more aggressive in the states you mentioned, and it is not out of the realm of possibility that he can win PA. I’m very skeptical about MI and WI. MI is just too far gone for Romney to win, though he might make it close, and how a state (WI) which elected Scott Walker and Ron Johnson in 2010 can revert back to electing Bonzo for president and Bull Dyke Baldwin to the Senate is incredible but that’s just what may happen.

My point in the last post was just that people who shriek about “oversampling” should realize that the math isn’t as simple as they might like to believe. :-)

You’re right that there is zero chance of a 1984-ish landslide for Mitt; there are way too many animals feeding at the taxpayer-funded trough for the Plantation Party to ever get less than that ‘magic 47%’ of the vote. If they are as depressed as we were in 2008, maybe Mitt gets to 53-45 but no way in hell will we ever see 60-40 for a Republican under these conditions.


30 posted on 10/31/2012 6:46:02 AM PDT by PermaRag (If Trayvon had a father, he'd look just like Obama)
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