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To: smoothsailing
A D+13 is high, even for Pennsylvania.

Yet Republican internal polls are showing a similar slight advantage for Obama from 2 to 4 percent. I think a heavy rainstorm can keep the unenthused African American vote down in Philly. If that happens, we can win this. I have never seen such an unenthusiastic Black response to a white candidate running against a Black candidate. Huge, huge difference over 2008 where a drive through Black neighborhoods looked like Obama wallpaper.

31 posted on 10/31/2012 6:47:25 AM PDT by old and tired
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To: old and tired
oops. That should read I have never seen such an unenthusiastic Black response to a Black candidate running against a White candidate
32 posted on 10/31/2012 6:49:43 AM PDT by old and tired
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To: old and tired

“Yet Republican internal polls are showing a similar slight advantage for Obama from 2 to 4 percent”

That’s strange too, for their internals to show a similar result to this poll.

This poll has a D/R/I sample of 50/37/11 for a D+13

Actual exit polling in 2008 and 2010 for Pennsylvania:

2008 44/37/18 D+7
2010 40/37/23 D+3

2008 was a D blowout
2010 was a R blowout

Splitting the difference, wouldn’t a sensible model this year be D+5?


33 posted on 10/31/2012 8:50:19 AM PDT by smoothsailing
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