Yet Republican internal polls are showing a similar slight advantage for Obama from 2 to 4 percent. I think a heavy rainstorm can keep the unenthused African American vote down in Philly. If that happens, we can win this. I have never seen such an unenthusiastic Black response to a white candidate running against a Black candidate. Huge, huge difference over 2008 where a drive through Black neighborhoods looked like Obama wallpaper.
“Yet Republican internal polls are showing a similar slight advantage for Obama from 2 to 4 percent”
That’s strange too, for their internals to show a similar result to this poll.
This poll has a D/R/I sample of 50/37/11 for a D+13
Actual exit polling in 2008 and 2010 for Pennsylvania:
2008 44/37/18 D+7
2010 40/37/23 D+3
2008 was a D blowout
2010 was a R blowout
Splitting the difference, wouldn’t a sensible model this year be D+5?