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To: old and tired

“Yet Republican internal polls are showing a similar slight advantage for Obama from 2 to 4 percent”

That’s strange too, for their internals to show a similar result to this poll.

This poll has a D/R/I sample of 50/37/11 for a D+13

Actual exit polling in 2008 and 2010 for Pennsylvania:

2008 44/37/18 D+7
2010 40/37/23 D+3

2008 was a D blowout
2010 was a R blowout

Splitting the difference, wouldn’t a sensible model this year be D+5?


33 posted on 10/31/2012 8:50:19 AM PDT by smoothsailing
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To: smoothsailing
Splitting the difference, wouldn’t a sensible model this year be D+5?

Yes, it would. All I can tell you is I have two good friends in Republican politics here in PA and they're both telling me that Obama will probably win Pennsylvania. One of them tends to be a pessimist, but the other is an optimist if anything and they're both saying the same thing re: internal polling.

34 posted on 10/31/2012 9:08:16 AM PDT by old and tired
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