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To: smoothsailing
Splitting the difference, wouldn’t a sensible model this year be D+5?

Yes, it would. All I can tell you is I have two good friends in Republican politics here in PA and they're both telling me that Obama will probably win Pennsylvania. One of them tends to be a pessimist, but the other is an optimist if anything and they're both saying the same thing re: internal polling.

34 posted on 10/31/2012 9:08:16 AM PDT by old and tired
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To: old and tired

I’m active in Republican politics here in SW PA and it’s upbeat here but statewide assessments are much the same as you say. There’s no doubt at all that Romney/Ryan will sweep this region and Tom Smith will do the same.

I don’t expect Pittsburgh to be much of a factor, Allegheny county probably close to a wash.

The question as always comes down to Philadelphia and it’s collar counties.

That’s the main driver of the pessimism. But there are indications that the Philly area will not be the big D vote machine it’s been in the past.

If I was calling PA now, I’d call it a tossup with a slight Romney lean. I’m one of the optimists! :)


35 posted on 10/31/2012 10:04:10 AM PDT by smoothsailing
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