I’m active in Republican politics here in SW PA and it’s upbeat here but statewide assessments are much the same as you say. There’s no doubt at all that Romney/Ryan will sweep this region and Tom Smith will do the same.
I don’t expect Pittsburgh to be much of a factor, Allegheny county probably close to a wash.
The question as always comes down to Philadelphia and it’s collar counties.
That’s the main driver of the pessimism. But there are indications that the Philly area will not be the big D vote machine it’s been in the past.
If I was calling PA now, I’d call it a tossup with a slight Romney lean. I’m one of the optimists! :)
Well, I'm in Montgomery county just over the Philly line. It's going to be close. Obama just does not have the enthusiasm he had 4 years ago. In the last couple of weeks, I have begun seeing the Obama signs but nothing like last time. And interestingly, I happen to know the people with the Obama signs are hardcore liberals. In my neighborhood, there are three Obama and five Romney signs. Obama signs = a gay couple, a union organizer, and a radical feminist college professor. I don't live in an area full of these kinds of nuts. They (with the exception of the union organizer) stand out as extremists. And the union organizer and the college professor ALWAYS put the Dem signs on their lawns and cars. This is the gay couple's first foray into politics, but I suppose given 0's support for gay marriage, their sign is to be expected. . Otherwise, crickets. No question, Obama is not walking away with PA - he's going to have to work for it this time.