Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Roanoke College Poll (VA) Pres: R49 O44; Senate: A47 K42 senate
Roanoke College ^ | 10/31/12 | roanoke college

Posted on 10/31/2012 6:09:58 AM PDT by Ravi

Governor Mitt Romney has overtaken President Barack Obama by a very narrow margin in Virginia (49% - 44%), according to a Roanoke College Poll conducted after the Presidential debates. Republican George Allen also enjoys a 5 point lead over Democrat Tim Kaine (47% - 42%) in the race for the U.S. Senate seat in Virginia. The Roanoke College Poll interviewed 638 likely voters in Virginia between Oct. 23 and October 26 and has a margin of error of +4 percent. Employing a more stringent screen for likely voters (N=503) increases Romney's lead to 54 percent to 41 percent and Allen's lead to 51 percent to 39 percent.[1]

(Excerpt) Read more at roanoke.edu ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Virginia
KEYWORDS: 2012; 2012polls; obama; romney; ryan
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-5051-54 next last
College polls never favor republicans. This one does. Umm, quinnipiac, u wanna take your poll back? Look at the stringent screen for LV also.
1 posted on 10/31/2012 6:10:09 AM PDT by Ravi
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: Ravi

Yeah, 49-44 very narrow.


2 posted on 10/31/2012 6:12:06 AM PDT by scottinoc
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: randita; SeekAndFind; LS; Perdogg; napscoordinator; God luvs America; nutmeg; SoFloFreeper; Ravi; ..

ping


3 posted on 10/31/2012 6:12:26 AM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Ravi

It is all down to turnout.

As long as the RATs don’t beat us by five points or more, we should win.

I like our chances.


4 posted on 10/31/2012 6:13:02 AM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Ravi

wow, a poll showing Romney up. I haven’t seen one of these in awhile. Just “Momentum” post. Keep them coming in their out there


5 posted on 10/31/2012 6:13:42 AM PDT by wiseprince
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Ravi

I’ll take this poll over the QP/NYT/CBS one that was posted here earlier.

It sounds about right.


6 posted on 10/31/2012 6:14:12 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved FrieGrnd Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Ravi

I wonder why all of a sudden nobody is demanding to see the internals of a poll, ha ha.


7 posted on 10/31/2012 6:19:04 AM PDT by PermaRag (If Trayvon had a father, he'd look just like Obama)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Ravi

I live in Northern Virginia — Democratic stronghold. For what it is worth, Obama signs outnumbered McCain signs 10-1 (literally) in 2008. This year, I’d say it is 60-40 Obama...with less outright support for Obama. If Romney can get 40-45% of the vote in No. Virginia, it is over. He will win.


8 posted on 10/31/2012 6:19:09 AM PDT by Tulane
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Ravi

Ravi,

VA is going to go Republican. Just like NC, FL and CO.

All of this is manufactured “suspense”

To me the ONLY wildcards left are (in order of leaning Republican most to least)

NH
OH
WI
IA
MI
PA
NV
MN
NM
OR

If it is Gov Romney 53+ in the PV, then he sweeps ALL of them

If he is at 50+ then he should take OH, NH and WI. Maybe even IA

At this stage, I believe the firewall now belongs to Gov Romney


9 posted on 10/31/2012 6:20:16 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: goldstategop

638 likely voters? I give any poll under 1,000 the red flag. I just never trust them; even when I like the outcome.


10 posted on 10/31/2012 6:20:38 AM PDT by Outraged At FLA
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: Ravi

I live in Virginia and I feel pretty good about Romney winning the state, there is zero enthusiasm for obama here, night and day from 2008.


11 posted on 10/31/2012 6:20:49 AM PDT by The Conservative Goddess
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Ravi

Here’s what I’ve seen...Last night I checked out DemocratUnderground.com. It seems like they all are VERY confident Obama is going to win.

I guess one side is going to be very disappointed and shocked next week. Sure hope it’s them.


12 posted on 10/31/2012 6:29:15 AM PDT by MNDude (OWS Movement RIP)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: scottinoc

my thoughts exactly


13 posted on 10/31/2012 6:29:35 AM PDT by Friendofgeorge (SARAH PALIN 2012 OR BUST)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Tulane

I’m in Arlington; compared to last month where it was all Obama ads on TV, I’ve noticed that the Romney + Republican PAC + that excellent ad about how much socialism sucks from that immigrant guy are overwhelming the Obama ads.


14 posted on 10/31/2012 6:29:46 AM PDT by Strategerist
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: LS; SoftwareEngineer; plushaye; LdSentinal; tatown; Jet Jaguar

ping


15 posted on 10/31/2012 6:31:23 AM PDT by Ravi
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: Outraged At FLA

638 gives you a MoE of 2.31%.

MoE = 1.26 X sqrt((R% X O%)/(n-1))

= 2.31%


16 posted on 10/31/2012 6:31:49 AM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: Ravi

D+4 too...


17 posted on 10/31/2012 6:34:19 AM PDT by Homer1
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Ravi

Great numbers, especially that drill-down for likelies! Hopefully they hold through whatever bump Obama might get because of Sandy.


18 posted on 10/31/2012 6:35:07 AM PDT by ScottinVA (Recordhighturnoutisourhopeforsending0bamahome.Prayhard!!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Ravi

Hooray. Romney ahead 4. Allen ahead 5. Beautiful!


19 posted on 10/31/2012 6:37:56 AM PDT by WashingtonSource
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ScottinVA
Battleground Polling has left Virginia, North Carolina and Florida.

Declaring Romney the winner

20 posted on 10/31/2012 6:39:09 AM PDT by scooby321 (AMS)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: Ravi
Governor Mitt Romney has overtaken President Barack Obama by a very narrow margin in Virginia (49% - 44%), according to a Roanoke College Poll...

Yet if it was the other way around, why Barack Obama would have moved out in front of Romney with a "commanding lead" of 49-44%. They just can't hide their bias can they?

21 posted on 10/31/2012 6:39:49 AM PDT by SamAdams76
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Ravi

5 points is narrow, eh?


22 posted on 10/31/2012 6:39:57 AM PDT by SoFloFreeper
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SoFloFreeper

I think they were being sarcastic since that is how the article described it.


23 posted on 10/31/2012 6:43:09 AM PDT by paul544
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 22 | View Replies]

To: Ravi

The Tea Party in Virginia has been working its heart out in the exurbs of Northern Virginia since 2009.

I live in near Fauquier county - Republicans have ground game and signs for Romney are everywhere. There is a lot of hope in Virginia. I can’t imagine that it’s at all a purple state this time around. The goal of the outer counties is to get out the vote and overtake the margin won by the counties closer to DC.

I’m sure there must be some in Fairfax County thinking hard about Sequestration, too.

Off-year elections are when (R) turnout is highest, of course. That’s how we got Bob McDonnell and Ken Cuccinelli AG.


24 posted on 10/31/2012 6:43:30 AM PDT by agrarianlady
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: The Conservative Goddess
“I live in Virginia and I feel pretty good about Romney winning the state, there is zero enthusiasm for obama here”

I live in Richmond and I wish I could say the same. But, it would be the end of the world if Richmond ever voted in a Democrat so hopefully this is just a local aberration.

25 posted on 10/31/2012 6:44:17 AM PDT by mistfree (Their & There, they're not the same)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: MNDude

They would be... they have a plethora of heavily D+ oversampled polls to choose from. They look at the top numbers and never check the internals.

No wonder they are supremely confident at DU that Obama will be re-elected. Why, Nate Silver says so!


26 posted on 10/31/2012 6:46:06 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved FrieGrnd Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: Ravi

FIVE points is a “very narrow margin” these days? When Obama’s leading by one they don’t talk margins, they talk about Obama being ahead.


27 posted on 10/31/2012 6:52:49 AM PDT by newzjunkey (Osama's dead... and so is our ambassador - Coulter.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg

>> MoE = 1.26 X sqrt((R% X O%)/(n-1)) <<

Are you sure? I thought the MOE was just two sigma, that is, the 95% confidence intervals.


28 posted on 10/31/2012 6:55:07 AM PDT by Hawthorn
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: PermaRag
Dear PermaRag,

Regarding internals, the college does provide some, although not directly a party breakdown. At least, I didn’t see one.

Battleground Watch has posted that the poll is D+4. 2008 was D+6, 2004 was R+4. Thus, D+4 may be a little on the high side for the Ds. I think it will be closer to even. But D+4 isn’t indefensible.

So, we have a poll that seems to have reasonable internals, if a little biased to the left, that shows Gov. Romney winning clearly, and outside the margin of error. With 5% undecided. And among the 36% of undecideds who would say which way they were leaning, they were going Romney 3 - 1. But 4% identify a third-party candidate. It would be unlikely that the two or three third-party candidates receiving votes in this poll will actually amount to 4% of the vote on election day. When pressed to choose between the two major candidates, the third-party voters choose the Kenyan almost 3 - 2.

From all this, I’d guess Gov. Romney will take Virginia by about 10 points. Not going to be close.

One hesitation is that the sample isn’t terribly large.


sitetest

29 posted on 10/31/2012 6:58:34 AM PDT by sitetest (If Roe is not overturned, no unborn child will ever be protected in law.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: Strategerist

Great news...glad to hear the PAC ads are running, as well.


30 posted on 10/31/2012 6:59:34 AM PDT by Jane Long (Soli Deo Gloria!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg

1/sqr rt 638 is 3.96%

that’s how i’ve seen it on other threads


31 posted on 10/31/2012 7:07:15 AM PDT by Principled (Is 340 EVs too much to ask for?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: Ravi

John Kass
Chicago Tribune

Sandy swoops in to save Obama - October 31, 2012 - What a difference a storm named Sandy makes, eh, Mr. President?

Click your ‘Print Preview’ to view the column without having to subscribe.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/chi-kass-sandy-saves-obama-20121031,0,4768067.column


32 posted on 10/31/2012 7:10:40 AM PDT by KeyLargo
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg

I understand the formula, but you still need a larger sample, or you could just poll 10 people. The larger samples just seem to be more accurate over time.


33 posted on 10/31/2012 7:17:54 AM PDT by Outraged At FLA
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: Outraged At FLA

10 people would be a 31.6 MOE

i think


34 posted on 10/31/2012 7:18:54 AM PDT by Principled (Is 340 EVs too much to ask for?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 33 | View Replies]

To: Outraged At FLA

I am sorry if you do not like the result, but it is what it is.


35 posted on 10/31/2012 7:19:05 AM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 33 | View Replies]

To: scottinoc

has a margin of error of +4 percent


36 posted on 10/31/2012 7:19:57 AM PDT by kabar
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: sitetest

Thanks — I saw all the splits at the roanoke.edu site but they didn’t identify the partisan breakdown as far as I could tell.

If it really is D+4 and still shows Allen and Romney winning by as much as the poll refelcts, that’s fantastic but still enough of an outlier compared to other polls (even allegedly unbiased ones like Rasmussen) that a huge grain of salt must be taken.


37 posted on 10/31/2012 7:22:06 AM PDT by PermaRag (If Trayvon had a father, he'd look just like Obama)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 29 | View Replies]

To: mistfree


I should have clarified, sorry. I live in the Hampton Roads area, so really can only speak to what I see around here.


38 posted on 10/31/2012 7:34:45 AM PDT by The Conservative Goddess
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies]

To: PermaRag
Dear PermaRag,

All the internals reported, including party affiliation, are in the pdf from the college describing the actual results. They report D/R/I/Other (never saw that last column before of 35/31/29/4. Myself, I'da lumped independent in with other.

I don't think this is such an outlier. It's a late poll and is likely catching the movement toward Gov. Romney. This is backed up by the polls own internals showing that undecideds are moving pretty strongly in his direction.

Common sense suggests that the Quinnipiac poll is the outlier. Q has a reputation as being a hack organization. I've been following their polls for a long time - always biased. But concerning this poll specifically, it's a D+7 poll. Worse, it's an admitted PUSH POLL, asking nine leading questions favoring the anti-Christ BEFORE getting to the “who would you vote for?” question. Gee whiz! Why bother? Even still, after all that huffing and puffing, they only get to a 2% advantage for the Kenyan.

Common sense suggests ignoring products from the Wash Post/ABC folks. They don't even pretend.

Methodology matters.


sitetest

39 posted on 10/31/2012 7:52:28 AM PDT by sitetest (If Roe is not overturned, no unborn child will ever be protected in law.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 37 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg; randita; SeekAndFind; LS; napscoordinator; God luvs America; nutmeg; SoFloFreeper; Ravi

Governor Mitt Romney has overtaken President Barack Obama by a very narrow margin in Virginia (49% - 44%),

Wouldn’t a “very narrow margin” be 1-2% ?

LOL


40 posted on 10/31/2012 8:09:06 AM PDT by stephenjohnbanker ((God, family, country, mom, apple pie, the girl next door and a Ford F250 to pull my boat.))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: sitetest

No argument from me regarding Q-pac; I’ve follwed them for a long time too and know how biased they are. They are so *consistently* biased that their polls — jokes though they are — can be useful if properly adjusted.

Is the ‘Field Poll’ still around? They were masters of laughably consistent leftism too. Other media polls are obviously heavily biased as well but they tend to be all over the place, mixing up a new formula of Special Sauce as needed to inspire the Rats and prop up their favored candidates.

I did not know that Q-pac used push-poll tactics to get their desired results on this particular poll, though I can’t say I’m surprised.


41 posted on 10/31/2012 8:38:08 AM PDT by PermaRag (If Trayvon had a father, he'd look just like Obama)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 39 | View Replies]

To: PermaRag
Dear PermaRag,

If you know that Quinnipiac is a fraud, and even they only have the anti-Christ up by 2 with a D+8 poll, then why in the world would you consider the Roanoke poll an outlier, especially since Roanoke isn't really favorable, as an organization, to Republicans? Their last Virginia poll had the Kenyan up by 8. Do you really, really think that o was ever really up by 8? Look at the description from Roanoke - “narrow margin for Romney.” “Narrow”?? Up by 5, nearly at 50, with a 3 - 1 break of undecideds for the challenger, right before the election?

Again, common sense suggests that this poll is probably pretty accurate, and likely understates the final vote that Gov. Romney will receive when he wins Virginia on his way to victory over the anti-Christ nationwide on Nov 6.


sitetest

42 posted on 10/31/2012 8:50:38 AM PDT by sitetest (If Roe is not overturned, no unborn child will ever be protected in law.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 41 | View Replies]

To: Ravi

I live in Oakton (NoVA) and remember well all the Obama signs in 2008...very depressing. Now on my 7-mile daily trip to Tysons Corner (through the very blue Vienna neighborhoods), I count 65-70% Romney signs, maybe more.

My neighbors and I took over a 1/4 mile stretch around a corner on a major connector. Obamahaters tore down signs twice but we replaced them. Been up ever since.

They’re giving up...


43 posted on 10/31/2012 8:54:00 AM PDT by wkdylak
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Mad Dawg; EDINVA; JPG; Hawthorn; Paisan; ConservativeOrBust; VA_Gentleman; seekthetruth; ...

VA Ping!

If you want on/off the VA Ping List, please freepmail me.

If you see posts of interest to Virginians, please ping me.

Thanks!


44 posted on 10/31/2012 9:20:38 AM PDT by randita
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg

That formula isn’t valid for this poll because it has non-random sampling. They report a margin of error of “about 4%.”


45 posted on 10/31/2012 9:40:21 AM PDT by verum ago (Some people must truly be in love, for only love can be so blind.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: Ravi

Among likely voters, “Romney’s lead ... 54 percent to 41 percent”—a “very narrow margin”, indeed. Methinks the person who had to write up the results was likely not pleased with the way the numbers turned out.


46 posted on 10/31/2012 10:39:01 AM PDT by SharpRightTurn ( White, black, and red all over--America's affirmative action, metrosexual president.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: scottinoc

With Colorado, Virginia, and Florida swinging to the Romney column, it is all going to come down to Ohio.


47 posted on 10/31/2012 10:40:14 AM PDT by Blood of Tyrants (Never believe anything in politics until it has been officially denied.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Mad Dawg; EDINVA; JPG; Hawthorn; Paisan; ConservativeOrBust; VA_Gentleman; seekthetruth; ...

Hey, I just got a text message on my Verizon cell phone saying “Something funny about Romney” and listing a youtube and google website. Dirty tricks, I’m sure. Anyone else get this.

The from number is yrz50@bz27ns.com

VA Ping!

If you want on/off the VA Ping List, please freepmail me.

If you see posts of interest to Virginians, please ping me.

Thanks!


48 posted on 10/31/2012 1:19:19 PM PDT by randita
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 41 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg

Good deal, thanks for the ping!


49 posted on 10/31/2012 1:23:24 PM PDT by 1035rep
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: Tulane

In Western Fairfax and Eastern Loudoun, I am seeing at least 2-1 Romney signs. The last time I was in Arlington, I only saw one or two Obama yard signs. Yards with signs for other Democrats did not have Obama signs.


50 posted on 10/31/2012 2:14:52 PM PDT by Belle22
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-5051-54 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson