Skip to comments.Roanoke College Poll (VA) Pres: R49 O44; Senate: A47 K42 senate
Posted on 10/31/2012 6:09:58 AM PDT by Ravi
Governor Mitt Romney has overtaken President Barack Obama by a very narrow margin in Virginia (49% - 44%), according to a Roanoke College Poll conducted after the Presidential debates. Republican George Allen also enjoys a 5 point lead over Democrat Tim Kaine (47% - 42%) in the race for the U.S. Senate seat in Virginia. The Roanoke College Poll interviewed 638 likely voters in Virginia between Oct. 23 and October 26 and has a margin of error of +4 percent. Employing a more stringent screen for likely voters (N=503) increases Romney's lead to 54 percent to 41 percent and Allen's lead to 51 percent to 39 percent.
(Excerpt) Read more at roanoke.edu ...
Yeah, 49-44 very narrow.
It is all down to turnout.
As long as the RATs don’t beat us by five points or more, we should win.
I like our chances.
wow, a poll showing Romney up. I haven’t seen one of these in awhile. Just “Momentum” post. Keep them coming in their out there
I’ll take this poll over the QP/NYT/CBS one that was posted here earlier.
It sounds about right.
I wonder why all of a sudden nobody is demanding to see the internals of a poll, ha ha.
I live in Northern Virginia — Democratic stronghold. For what it is worth, Obama signs outnumbered McCain signs 10-1 (literally) in 2008. This year, I’d say it is 60-40 Obama...with less outright support for Obama. If Romney can get 40-45% of the vote in No. Virginia, it is over. He will win.
VA is going to go Republican. Just like NC, FL and CO.
All of this is manufactured “suspense”
To me the ONLY wildcards left are (in order of leaning Republican most to least)
If it is Gov Romney 53+ in the PV, then he sweeps ALL of them
If he is at 50+ then he should take OH, NH and WI. Maybe even IA
At this stage, I believe the firewall now belongs to Gov Romney
638 likely voters? I give any poll under 1,000 the red flag. I just never trust them; even when I like the outcome.
I live in Virginia and I feel pretty good about Romney winning the state, there is zero enthusiasm for obama here, night and day from 2008.
Here’s what I’ve seen...Last night I checked out DemocratUnderground.com. It seems like they all are VERY confident Obama is going to win.
I guess one side is going to be very disappointed and shocked next week. Sure hope it’s them.
my thoughts exactly
I’m in Arlington; compared to last month where it was all Obama ads on TV, I’ve noticed that the Romney + Republican PAC + that excellent ad about how much socialism sucks from that immigrant guy are overwhelming the Obama ads.
638 gives you a MoE of 2.31%.
MoE = 1.26 X sqrt((R% X O%)/(n-1))
Great numbers, especially that drill-down for likelies! Hopefully they hold through whatever bump Obama might get because of Sandy.
Hooray. Romney ahead 4. Allen ahead 5. Beautiful!
Declaring Romney the winner