Skip to comments.PPP: Obama leads by 5 in Ohio, 50/45 (PPP Still wants to believe that D+9 is accurate sampling)
Posted on 10/31/2012 10:46:53 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
No wonder David Axelrod thinks that Barack Obama can win Ohio without winning independents. According to the latest Buckeye State poll from PPP, they only need an extra five points from non-Democrats to get a majority:
A new Public Policy Polling survey in Ohio, conducted on behalf of Health Care for America Now, finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 50-45.
Oh, lets just skip the rest of the preliminaries and go right to the sample. The D/R/I on this poll is a ridiculous 45/36/19 that assumes Democrats will add six points to their 2008 turnout while independents largely stay home. In 2008, recall, the exit polls showed the electorate at 39/31/30, and the 2010 midterm put it at 36/37/28. Has anyone produced any evidence of such a wave of Democratic enthusiasm? Even the CBS/NYT/Q-poll today showed GOP enthusiasm leading by 14 in Ohio, 57/43.
PPP also is one of the few polls to show independents not breaking significantly to Romney. Instead, PPP has them both tied at 45% with six days left to go. The 10% undecided in this case would probably have to break toward the challenger, since Obamas underwater with independents on favorability (46/48) and especially on job approval (42/50).
This poll is good for a laugh, but thats about it.
ppp=PURE PROGRESSIVE PROPAGANDA
Come on. They aren't even trying to hide their agenda here.
Can I create my own polling outfit and proclaim a +15 point Romney lead in every state (based on a completely unbiased sampling of my friends)? It would have the same degree of credibility.
We the complacent conservatives will bitch and complain when the election is stolen, and then do.....absolutely nothing.
We deserve what we get. Sorry so negative.
Ok, here’s how they get to that number. First, as pointed out, there is a 9% skew.
However, there are some significant problems with their own methodology. They’ve overweighted the already voted numbers to be what they expect it to be. That is 33%. But, nowhere near 33% have already voted in Ohio. Romney actually as a 5% edge in those remaining to vote. But, it appears as if they oversampled those who have voted because they show a Democrat edge of 27% of those already voted!??!? This is highly suspect, and quite frankly, the numbers simply do not add up.
Let’s fix this poll. Assume R+1 per Gallup (BTW, Gallup does not adjust their numbers ... But they did a poll on turnout.) D+9 + R+1 = 10 + 45 = Romney 55 - Obama 40. Now let’s split the missing 5% by giving other candidates 1%, and conservatively splitting the remaining 4% 50/50. Final results = Romney 57 - Obama 42.
See, I can make up numbers just like pee pee.
For some reason, I just can’t believe my own numbers, but I can dream.
Given voting machines are assigning votes for Romney to obama, a 9% voting fraud caculation is understandable.
All that matters in a socialist Utopia is who counts the vote.
that math does not work
Some of these polls are getting to the point they’re simply laughable. The Pee Pee is the same outfit that manufactured numbers on a “poll”, sampling R+9 to show Akin at +1 right after he blurted out the “legitimate rape” comment, in order to entice him to stay in the race.
According to their numbers, Romney wins those left to vote by 5%. This is very plausible and probably understaded since McCain won the election day by about 3% and still lost the early vote in Ohio by about 4.5% If, as they say, 33% of the voters have already voted, then Obama’s lead among those must be at 15%, not 27% if he leads the total vote by 5% Again, the math does not add up.
I just checked and the real number of those who have voted is something like 20%. It’s actually about 16% as of about 5 days ago, but I added an extra 4% for the lag. So, if Obama leads the 20% of all voters voters by 15%, and Romney leads the 80% of total voters by 5%, Romney clearly beats Obama...and this is with a 9% oversampling.
Admittedly, this is assuming their 27% early voting numbers are wrong and not the 5% number for Romney. All I know is that both cannot be right...and the 27% is much more suspicious to me. Also, their oversampling of voters who already voted is obviously bad polling.
Again with these D+ numbers. They are just factoring in democrat cheating.
I posted this question on another thread and had no replies,
One of the stories state Obama called Netanyahu at 8:18pm ET. Israel is 6 hours AHEAD of us, so that would make it 2:18 am in Israel. If the call was for 1 hour, it ended at 3:18 am. Does anyone here really think Netanyahu would stay up at that hour of the night just to talk to Obama? I dont! And why would they even be told about that phone call..........What is going on???
As far as I can see, no one has given a time for when oblada called Netanyahu. Lynne Sweet first published it at 8:18 which suggests that the call was earlier than that.