Skip to comments.Pennsylvania Poll: Romney Within Four, Despite D+13 Sample
Posted on 10/31/2012 11:24:03 AM PDT by GonzoII
Behold, Franklin and Marshall's new poll of Pennsylvania:
Before we get to the internals, notice the basic trend line. This month, Mitt Romney broke into the mid-40s, while Obama dropped back into in the upper 40s. Remember a political rule of thumb: An incumbent with universal name recognition who is polling below 50 percent is typically seen as vulnerable. Now, a slightly deeper dive. Mitt Romney leads independents by 16 points in this poll, 48/32, with 10 percent undecided. If the Republican ticket looks well-positioned to win indies by a margin in the 15-20 point range, how does Obama lead the topline number by four points? Simple. The overall partisan split is a whopping D+13. Before you scoff and presume Romney may actually be winning, don't forget that the state's voter registration statistics are pretty similarly lopsided. On the other hand, when I spoke with Susquehanna Polling Director Jim Lee a few weeks ago, he noted that Republican turnout (ie, actual votes) always over-performs the party's registration numbers -- sometimes by a large margin. In the wave year of 2008, the Keystone State electorate was D+7. This poll tacks six points on Democrats' 2008 turnout. If that doesn't come to fruition, strong GOP turnout and independents for Romney could cook up a Pennsylvania surprise. What is Romney's path to victory? The Philly 'burbs:
If Pennsylvania stages a surprise next week, it’ll come out of suburban Philadelphia. The four so-called collar counties (Bucks, Chester, Delaware and Montgomery) were once moderate Republican bastions. In the past two decades, the suburbs have gone for Democratic presidential candidates. You can’t win without them. Bucks (pop. 626,854) is the bellwether: A mix of educated middle-class, rural and blue-collar communities, it votes both ways in local elections—and always for the presidential winner. … Republicans in the collar counties had little reason for enthusiasm before the first debate. The morning after Denver, the party office in Bucks was overrun with people looking for Romney-Ryan lawn signs. The Romney message strategy echoes that of Sen. Toomey and other successful GOP candidates here two years ago: Talk about jobs and debt, appeal to bipartisanship, and avoid the subjects of abortion and religion as much as possible. As it happens, Mr. Romney is the first Northeasterner to get the Republican nod since the Connecticut native Bush 41 in 1988. He looks and sounds like Republicans whom Pennsylvanians have voted for in the past. Texas swagger and Sarah Palin didn’t play well in Bucks
Guess where Romney is running his ads in Pennsylvania? But remember, Team Obama keeps telling us they're not, not, not suddenly spending money on the air in Pennsylvania because they're nervous. So it must be true. I'm nowhere near ready to call an upset here, but it's fascinating to watch Chicago squirm.
Given the run on yard signs, decals and bumper stickers for Romney-Ryan in places like Bucks, it looks encouraging.
And with the commercials they’re now running, they have a chance to flip the state. Let’s hope the GOP team can carry Bucks - otherwise they don’t stand a prayer when Philly comes in.
Largely depends on Philadelphia voter enthusiasm. If they can’t turnout a good number of voters compared to past elections in Pennsylvania’s major cities, it makes it very likely, if not almost definite, that Romney wins the state.
Did you vote for obama in 2008?
If you did, shouldn't your battle cry be the following:
"Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me."
I live in a liberal area outside Philly and my office is in Bucks County... You see no Obama signs this time... None.
I see no cars with Obummer stickers.. None.
This guy is toast in PA. I honestly think he is. It's a good thing too, because after the last four years... All I have left is change!
I’d buy PA as D+8 or D+10, maybe (though probably not this year). Still say Romney gets the state on the strength of the suburbs and the coal country.
Romney 52% Obama 48%
Tried early voting in Florida...50 to 75 people in line..good or bad??? this place is overrun with people from NY, NJ , Mass and Penn... we will see
What about the infamous 120% Philly voter turnout?
It’s a lot like that around Pittsburgh as well. I live in the suburbs, and Romney/Ryan signs are EVERYWHERE.
I hope you’re a prophet! ;0)
This poll is either toilet paper or a harbinger of a blowout.
Once again we tell ourselves PA is “in play.” And it really is! These numbers look great. But I have been so burned by PA over the years that I am not getting my hopes up.
LOL, so do I! :o)
A poll with this ridiculous sample does not even warrant discussion.
Waited for the high winds to pass here in Bucks. Our Romney/Ryan sign is going up this afternoon in time for trick or treat tonight—if the kids make it. Probably be over a few days here.
Driving from Montgomery County to here on Saturday counted 13 Romney, 3 Obama signs.
I was just going to ask. Was it D+8 in 2008? Anyone know for sure? Thanks.
D + 13 covers the 2008 8% Dem advantage and the 2012
+5% Dem Vote Fraud....
I’ve been in four different counties in southeast PA in the past week and the Romney signs outnumber the Obama signs 15-1. And no bumper stickers. As I said in another thread, our county was allotted 2000 signs, ordered another 2000 and they’re totally out. I had to settle for a placard, which is being nailed to the fence as we speak.
If enough of them are dispirited this time we’ll have a shot
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