Skip to comments.In Deadlocked Race, Neither Side Has Ground Game Advantage--Early Voting Also Tied [Pew]
Posted on 10/31/2012 1:37:53 PM PDT by tatown
Just as the presidential race is deadlocked in the campaigns final days, the candidates are also running about even when it comes to the ground game. Voters nationally, as well those in the closely contested battleground states, report being contacted at about the same rates by each of the campaigns. And with a fifth of likely voters reporting already having cast their ballots, neither Barack Obama nor Mitt Romney has a clear advantage among early voters. This is in sharp contrast to early voting at this point four years ago, which favored Obama by a wide margin.
(Excerpt) Read more at people-press.org ...
This poll was done by the same firm that did the NJ poll.
It amazes me how they keep saying it’s deadlocked when ewvery poll shows Romney ahead AND undecideds break for the challenger by 80%.
I’m expecting a Romney victory of almost biblical proportions.
I find it jarring how other sections of the web honestly believe that Romney has less than a 25% chance of winning. It’s like they’re looking at a different election.
Then again, they will never answered my question when I pressed them about examining crosstabs.
The key finding IMO is that the Kenyan is losing among early voters, which is exactly what Gallup found. If true, he CAN’T win. Even McCain blew him out on Election Day.
How is a 50% - 43% lead among the 19% of the population that claims to have voted “deadlocked”?
I don’t know about the Biblical part, but I’m with you on the rest.
If Independents are breaking Romney in large numbers, and they are, who does that leave to make up for the loss, Republicans?
Deadlocked? Well, only if that references a head-lock so tight the Obama team can’t breathe.
Boy, they’re sipping the juice a lot lately.
I agree. This is encouraging. Pew and Rasmussen were the two pollsters that nailed the 2008 election.
Obama at 47% and Romney up 7 in early voting are both great signs. That represents a 26 point swing to our side from 2008.
I think I may need to quit watching polls between now and election day though. These ups and downs are going to wind up killing me.
Because the 50% is an R. If it were reversed it would be described as a commanding lead.
It means they have to come up with 7% more dead voters to tie it up.
It has been ‘hysterical women day’ on Jay Severin’s radio show at the Blaze today...Romney supporters all, but completely and utterly freaking out...amazing.
The problem is that it may or may not be reflective of the ELECTORAL college vote. If Obama is poised to win WI, OH and VI, the popular vote becomes irrelevant.
That is why I wanna know if Mitt is still campaigning in OH - by God he better not still be trying to gain public support on a humanitarian appeal. This is the absolute worst possible time for him to be wasting time looking for donations when he’s in OH. He needs to destroy Obama in OH, not just pull out a win.
Intersting. Of course, a small sample, not statistically significant etc, but it does tally (almost exactly) with Gallup’s figures.
Pollsters always live in their own little universe and never (officially) compare their figures with the results from other pollsters, therefore the similarity between this result and Gallup’s will not be mentioned by any of the polling organizations.
anyone here good at math? If Romney leads by 7% with the first 19% that has come in, what percent must Obama get in the remaining 81% percent to win?
>1.3% more than Romney.
Romney is definitely compaiging in Ohio. Huge Rally Friday night resembling a mini convention. I’ve heard up to 20,000 people. McCain/Palin got 10,000 people at this location four years ago. Much more enthusiam now! The rally will be held at 7:30 p.m. at The Square at Union Centre, a large outdoor gathering space in downtown West Chester, which is the hometown of House Speaker John A. Boehner (R). The same venue hosted then-vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin in October 2008, where she took the stage to Eye of the Tiger and rallied a crowd of about 10,000.
In addition to Mitt and Ann Romney and Paul and Janna Ryan, the Romney campaign has announced that the following surrogates will attend: McCain and his wife, Cindy; former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice; Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal; Texas Gov. Rick Perry; Kansas Gov. Sam Brownback; Sens. Rob Portman (Ohio), Marco Rubio (Fla.), John Thune (S.D.), Lindsey Graham (S.C.) and Kelly Ayotte (N.H.); former senator Norm Coleman (Minn.); former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani; former Pennsylvania governor Tom Ridge; Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus; Rep. Jason Chaffetz (Utah); former congressman Artur Davis (Ala.); Olympic champion speed skater Derek Parra; Olympic champion figure skater Scott Hamilton; champion golfer Jack Nicklaus; as well as Tagg and Jen Romney, Matt and Laurie Romney, Josh Romney, Ben Romney and Craig and Mary Romney.
Romney’s posted schedule indicates he will be in Ohio more than any other state between now and election day.
He knows how crucial it is and how close it is. His campaign strategy suggests (and I agree) that he believes the notion that the candidate who captures Ohio almost definitely wins the election.
Nervous Nelly or Concern Troll?
Why does the headline say early voting is tied (I even see this as good news) if Pew’s graphic says Romney is up seven? I’m confused.
Interesting, and definitely something of a relief. I just worry about Romney’s loss of vital momentum in OH because of the time he spent in relief efforts instead of campaigning. I just hope and pray that he is as of now regaining momentum in the most important state. Is there any data source that shows what the vote looks like for those who have already voted in OH ? How much of a lead does Obama have among those who voted and what percentage of OH voters have already gotten out their votes ?
I’d estimate Zero needs 3% more than Romney in the remaining 81%.
Maybe some of both, considering that if Mitt loses, it’s RIP America 1789-2012. And aren’t you sort of mortified that Romney isn’t already winning so handily everywhere that even the polls are forced to admit he’s winning ? Doesn’t it traumatize you and make you severely depressed that this election is this close at all and isn’t a 1984-like landslide ?
So quit being a Chicken Little and do something useful... besides hand wringing.
why do they have the subheadng say early voting also tied, but then their chart below show romney up 53 43?
are they just retarded?
I expect we’ll see numerous cooked polls by the Marxist media designed to discourage conservative voters from showing up on election day. That will not work.
The propaganda press needs to pay a severe price for what it did during Buckwheat’s reign.
I think that's about right. Obama would need to get about 51-52% of the remaining 81% to overcome Romney's early lead.
Oh, come on. Don't you know that when Bush had 4.5% unemployment we were in a "recession," but now with 8% we're in a "recovery?" You gotta get your definitions straight. If Zero is down by anything less than 10, it's "deadlocked" according to the Drive-bys.
True but Pew look kind bias with that headline. I thought they were pretty middle of the road. Up 7 but it’s deadlocked?
When I looked at the information at their site, they're saying because of the small sample size, the result isn't statistically-significant. Really, what they mean, I think, is that it's well within the margin for error for such a small sample.
That's fine, but it's still not a dead heat.
Yeah, yeah, I know - double-speak. But I'm way too hard-headed to ever, ever let the minions of Satan from getting away with re-making my language to serve their demonic ends.
Two days off the trail when the President and his surrogates were also off the trail for the most part is not a big deal.
Panic is unwarranted. In fact, you should take a look at the early voting and absentee analysis threads that LS and other Ohioans have put together.
Correct, BUT this number assumes each and every Dem ballot was for Obama and each Rep ballot was for Romney. I believe what we are seeing is there are more Dem’s crossing to vote for Romney (actually against Obama more than for Romney) then there are Rep crossing to vote for Obama.
I am in Ohio. Portman has been on the radio stations, he sounds positive and confident. It sounds like they are pleased the way it is going. Not spin, but confidence. We’ll see tonight with the rally. I heard this morning that they are now expecting more than first anticipated, could be up to 40,000. If that’s the case, I’m gonna feel really good going into the weekend. This Sandy situation up in NYC and Libya are percolating, that photo op by Obama is beginning to look bad.