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Dick Morris: Here comes the landslide
The Hill ^ | 10/31/2012 | Dick Morris

Posted on 10/31/2012 2:28:40 PM PDT by SeekAndFind

Voters have figured out that President Obama has no message, no agenda and not even much of an explanation for what he has done over the past four years. His campaign is based entirely on persuading people that Mitt Romney is a uniquely bad man, entirely dedicated to the rich, ignorant of the problems of the average person. As long as he could run his negative ads, the campaign at least kept voters away from the Romney bandwagon. But once we all met Mitt Romney for three 90-minute debates, we got to know him — and to like him. He was not the monster Obama depicted, but a reasonable person for whom we could vote.

As we stripped away Obama’s yearlong campaign of vilification, all the president offered us was more servings of negative ads — ads we had already dismissed as not credible. He kept doing the same thing even as it stopped working. The result was that the presidential race reached a tipping point. Reasonable voters saw that the voice of hope and optimism and positivism was Romney while the president was only a nitpicking, quarrelsome, negative figure. The contrast does not work in Obama’s favor.

His erosion began shortly after the conventions when Indiana (10 votes) and North Carolina (15) moved to Romney (in addition to the 179 votes that states that McCain carried cast this year).

Then, in October, Obama lost the Southern swing states of Florida (29) and Virginia (13). He also lost Colorado (10), bringing his total to 255 votes.

And now, he faces the erosion of the northern swing states: Ohio (18), New Hampshire (4) and Iowa (6). Only in the union-anchored state of Nevada (9) does Obama still cling to a lead.

In the next few days, the battle will move to Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (15), Wisconsin (10) and Minnesota (16). Ahead in Pennsylvania, tied in Michigan and Wisconsin, and slightly behind in Minnesota, these new swing states look to be the battleground.

Or will the Romney momentum grow and wash into formerly safe Democratic territory in New Jersey and Oregon?

Once everyone discovers that the emperor has no clothes (or that Obama has no argument after the negative ads stopped working), the vote shift could be of historic proportions.

The impact on Senate races could be profound. Give the GOP easy pickups in Nebraska and North Dakota. Wisconsin has been a roller coaster. Once an easy win for Republican Tommy Thompson, then a likely loss as Democrat Tammy Baldwin caught up, and now Republican again, it will probably be a third pickup. Romney’s surge in Virginia is propelling George Allen to a good lead for the first time all campaign. In Montana, Republican Denny Rehberg holds and has held for some time a small lead over Democrat incumbent Jon Tester. And, in Pennsylvania, Smith has powered his campaign to a small lead over Democrat Bob Casey Jr.

The GOP now leads in these six takeaways. But it is also within easy striking distance in Ohio and Florida, where incumbents are under 50 percent and Republican challengers Connie Mack (Fla.) and Josh Mandel (Ohio) are only a few points behind. It may even be possible to entertain daydreams of Rhode Island (Barry Hinckley) and New Jersey (Joe Kyrillos) going Republican.

Republican losses? Look for a giveback in Maine and possibly in Indiana and Massachusetts. In Indiana, Republican Richard Mourdock had established a 5-point lead over Democrat Joe Donnelly. But his comments about rape knocked him back to a tie. With Romney carrying the state by 15 points, however, Mourdock could still make it. In Massachusetts, Brown has been in hand-to-hand combat with Elizabeth Warren. Down by five a few days ago, he’s now tied, but the undecided usually goes against the incumbent.

The most likely outcome? Eight GOP takeaways and two giveaways for a net gain of six. A 53-47 Senate, just like we have now, only opposite.

Barack Obama’s parting gift to the Democratic Party.

-- Dick Morris, a former adviser to Sen. Trent Lott (R-Miss.) and President Clinton, is the author of Outrage, Fleeced, Catastrophe and 2010: Take Back America — A Battle Plan. To get all of his and Eileen McGann’s columns for free by e-mail or to order a signed copy of their latest book, Revolt!: How To Defeat Obama and Repeal His Socialist Programs — A Patriot’s Guide, go to dickmorris.com.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: landslide; romney

1 posted on 10/31/2012 2:28:42 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

I think Morris is right on this one that Condi Rice will win in a landslide over Hillary Clinton.


2 posted on 10/31/2012 2:31:34 PM PDT by Uncle Slayton
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To: SeekAndFind

What was DM’s prediction in 2008?


3 posted on 10/31/2012 2:31:53 PM PDT by GeronL (http://asspos.blogspot.com)
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To: SeekAndFind

It is a Jimmy Carter-moment. You can rattle off forty mistakes for the administration, and how they really never understood the system. Even after losing the Nov 2010 election...when they could have done some things to clean up the mess...they just continued to screw-up.


4 posted on 10/31/2012 2:31:54 PM PDT by pepsionice
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To: SeekAndFind

DM is a funny guy, and I “get” what he is trying to do. Truth is, the polls are showing a tightening of the race, probably storm related. Luckiest man in politics? Maybe. Its going to be another nail biter.


5 posted on 10/31/2012 2:32:36 PM PDT by Paradox (I want Obama defeated. Period.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Dick, from your toe ornamented lips to God’s ears.


6 posted on 10/31/2012 2:33:48 PM PDT by frogjerk (OBAMA NOV 2012 = HORSEMEAT)
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To: SeekAndFind

Look who’s smoking Hopium now.


7 posted on 10/31/2012 2:35:33 PM PDT by Utmost Certainty (Our Enemy, the State)
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To: pepsionice

He may be right......I went to early vote in Florida....the line was out the door and around the building.. It has never been like that.. Not in 2008


8 posted on 10/31/2012 2:35:42 PM PDT by Hojczyk
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To: SeekAndFind

It always scares me when Morris predicts our side will win.


9 posted on 10/31/2012 2:39:06 PM PDT by Terry Mross (To former friends and relatives. Don't ever contact me if you still support obama.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Still not seeing it at this point, Dick, although I do think a close Romney victory is very possible.

Sure hope you have the last laugh.


10 posted on 10/31/2012 2:39:25 PM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: GeronL

I don’t know what he predicted in 2008, but in 2010 he predicted that the GOP would gain about 70 House seats. The GOP won 63 and Morris was way closer than a lot of analysts.


11 posted on 10/31/2012 2:42:00 PM PDT by randita
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To: SeekAndFind
Indiana (10 votes)
Um... IN has 11EVs.

Colorado (10)
Actually 10.

Nevada (9)
It's 6.

Michigan (15)
16.

Minnesota (16)
10.

I'm going to take this "analysis" with a grain of salt. No, make that a whole bowl of salt.
12 posted on 10/31/2012 2:44:28 PM PDT by Mr. Know It All
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To: GeronL

During the 2008 primaries he predicted Hillary would be our next President. He was almost telling us to bank on it so I take what he says with a grain.


13 posted on 10/31/2012 2:45:13 PM PDT by StarFan
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To: Terry Mross
It always scares me when Morris predicts our side will win.

Yeah. It's like the kiss of death.

14 posted on 10/31/2012 2:45:29 PM PDT by SIDENET ("If that's your best, your best won't do." -Dee Snider)
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To: Mr. Know It All

I meant Colorado has 9 instead of 10EVs per Morris.


15 posted on 10/31/2012 2:49:56 PM PDT by Mr. Know It All
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To: SIDENET

You got to admit, the guy has doubled down on this prediction he made months ago. Now it’s in writing and he’s basically bet his entire political clout. Can’t imagine he’d do that if he wasn’t pretty confident.

I’m not a fan, but I hope to God he’s right.


16 posted on 10/31/2012 2:51:32 PM PDT by BuckeyeGOP
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To: Hojczyk
He may be right......I went to early vote in Florida....the line was out the door and around the building.. It has never been like that.. Not in 2008

Did it remind you of Chick-Fil-A Appreciation day? :=)

17 posted on 10/31/2012 2:53:37 PM PDT by Bob
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To: SeekAndFind

Morris is very politically astute and knows what he’s talking about. Believe it.


18 posted on 10/31/2012 2:55:26 PM PDT by TheRhinelander
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To: randita

He was amazingly accurate as the net gain was indeed 63 seats. The GOP actually won 66 seats total as three of those seats were GOP held retirements which were retained.


19 posted on 10/31/2012 3:09:05 PM PDT by DarthVader (Politicians govern out of self interest, Statesmen govern for a Vision greater than themselves)
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To: Terry Mross
Morris just put the jinx on the Repubs.

I think Wednesday morning Nov. 7th is going to be a shock to Conservatives everywhere ... like we just saw our dog run over by a truck.

20 posted on 10/31/2012 3:09:55 PM PDT by CapnJack
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To: SeekAndFind

I am surprised that the pundits are going out on a limb to this extent. Either Dick Morris or Nate Silver are going to end up with egg on their face. They can’t both be right.


21 posted on 10/31/2012 3:10:06 PM PDT by AC86UT89
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To: StarFan

I think if the truth were known, Hillary won the primary against zero. The Obama team stole the election from her - bought off her delegates. That’s my viewpoint anyway. And, had she won the nomination, she would’ve been elected.


22 posted on 10/31/2012 3:11:06 PM PDT by Catsrus (WANT)
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To: AC86UT89

Dick Morris is pretty much an expert at being wrong ....


23 posted on 10/31/2012 3:13:09 PM PDT by thestob (Vote or P. Diddy will kill you)
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To: SeekAndFind

Photos of long CONSERVATIVE lines will be needed to offset what Rush called, “lawyer planning” going on behind closed doors now...gotta prove the landslide wasn’t manufactured or stolen since the polls MUST BE RIGHT,right?

PHOTOS!!!


24 posted on 10/31/2012 3:17:02 PM PDT by CincyRichieRich (Keep your head up and keep moving forward!)
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To: Terry Mross

People world-wide pay Mr. Morris millions of dollars to run campaigns, advise them and poll/analyze. There’s a reason for that. No one bats 1,000.


25 posted on 10/31/2012 3:36:04 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass.)
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To: Catsrus

It’s like handing candy to a baby. Dog goes woof-woof. It’s not that October is about to end that concerns me but October will be back again before we know it. But before then, lot’s of good things will happen in between.


26 posted on 10/31/2012 3:51:12 PM PDT by SamAdams76
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; ColdOne; Convert from ECUSA; ...

Thanks SeekAndFind.
Voters have figured out that President Obama has no message, no agenda and not even much of an explanation for what he has done over the past four years.
He has an explanation, he just doesn't want to say, "I'm your enemy and I'm trying to destroy you." And even if he were to spell it out that starkly, the next days would see his Partisan Media Shills trying to spin it some way.


27 posted on 10/31/2012 4:01:27 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I like Morris and do put some trust in what he is saying. He has been saying this for a while and has not backed up.

I like when he told Hannity that it was his job to come up with the numbers.


28 posted on 10/31/2012 4:10:54 PM PDT by Carry me back
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To: Utmost Certainty
See you are going around on the threads to cast your doom and gloom.

Actually, it is going to be a landslide for Romney and we will win back the Senate.

Independents will break heavily for Romney.

29 posted on 10/31/2012 4:12:45 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: StarFan

And who saw Obama coming into the picture?


30 posted on 10/31/2012 4:14:00 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: CapnJack

Be here on Nov.7th and eat some crow.


31 posted on 10/31/2012 4:15:04 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: Terry Mross

I know. Like when he assured us at around 11pm on election night in ‘06 that Senator Allen was going to eke out a victory over Webb based on what he had seen up to that point. Baloney. Dems turned out more than expected (by Morris) in Richmond and that was that.


32 posted on 10/31/2012 4:38:58 PM PDT by Combat_Liberalism
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To: CapnJack

We were tired of that damn ole dawg anyway. He just pee’d in the fireplace, chewed my boots and threw up in the living room.


33 posted on 10/31/2012 5:09:55 PM PDT by arrogantsob (The Disaster MUST Go. Sarah herself supports Romney.)
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To: SeekAndFind
Voters have figured out that President Obama has no message, no agenda and not even much of an explanation for what he has done over the past four years.

But he has a maxed-out race card, doesn't that count for something?

34 posted on 10/31/2012 7:36:18 PM PDT by mykroar (Race/religious riots & hurricanes bring November martial law. Voting postponed.)
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To: Mr. Know It All; All

Hard to believe Dickie made so many errors in the states’ electoral votes. My guess is that he hired some nitwit to write this column for him, or is starting to suffer from a little dementia after being absorbed in this business for months now.


35 posted on 10/31/2012 7:42:49 PM PDT by justiceseeker93
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