Clue :
Posted on 10/31/2012 3:12:35 PM PDT by Arthurio
With less than a week before the election, the race for the White House is dead even: Barack Obama and Mitt Romney receive 46 percent each, according to a Fox News poll of likely voters.
Romney had a razor-thin 46-45 percent edge earlier this month, after the first presidential debate (October 7-9).
Interviews in areas affected by Hurricane Sandy were completed before Monday evening, when the hurricane made landfall.
Independents give the edge to Romney by seven percentage points (46-39 percent). That’s down from a 12-point advantage in early October.
There’s a gender gap in vote preference, as men back Romney by 51-42 percent, while women side with Obama by 50-42 percent.
The new Fox poll finds Obama under-performing compared to his 2008 exit poll numbers by 13 percentage points among independents, 9 points among white men, 6 points among women and 4 points among voters under age 30.
Among the subgroup of most interested voters, those who are “extremely” interested in the election, Romney leads Obama by 53-42 percent.
Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/10/31/fox-news-poll-race-for-white-house-dead-heat/#ixzz2AuxJtsiO
(Excerpt) Read more at foxnews.com ...
I don’t believe women could be that stupid.
If you dig through the results, respondents were 42D/37R/18I.
They oversampled Democrats by 5 points and undersampled Independents, most of whom will break for Romney. No matter how you cut it, the only way Obama stands a chance is by using outdated turnout numbers, and barring a miracle, he isn’t going to get that.
Obama is toast...to milquetoast (Mitt).
“Fox News poll: Race for the White House a dead heat”
No it’s not.
All of these polling outfits just MAGICALLY getting an even split over and over again is pure bullsh!t. This is done almost every election just to keep people tuning in to see what will happen next. More views = more $$$$.
Outside of 2000, these races swing for one or the other convincingly, and either person running KNOWS what the real story is by now.
Ok here is why
42/37/18 this poll breakout
40/39/18 last poll was this so changed result
I concur.
But this kind of headline makes for much better TV viewership between now and then...
Why is everyone so convinced that ALL the polls—aside from a handful at Rasmussen and Gallup—are woefully inaccurate? What if they’re not fibbing and it turns out to be true?
no one is questioning accuracy...
it’s the methods that are being questioned.
Check out post 5
Why is everyone so convinced that ALL the polls—aside from a handful at Rasmussen and Gallup—are woefully inaccurate? What if they’re not fibbing and it turns out to be true?
Because we use our brain , read the hundreds of posts that explain why, look at county by county current votes, have experience from 2010 and see that Romney is leading every poll of people that have already voted. I have spent 150 hours coming to my educated guess what brings you to your conclusion?
I probably should’ve used the word ‘unrepresentative’ (of the country’s electoral trends) instead of ‘inaccurate’.
I just have a difficult time believing that a dozen+ different polling outlets would all collusively employ inaccurate sampling.
If they are right then Obama is re-elected. It’s not difficult. 4 more years of Obama. Congratulations. The final tally, 51/48/1 but for who. I should add, the reason why people are suspicious is because of the sample. If you do a poll of 1000 people and 800 of them are democrats and Obama is winning democrats 90/10 then who do you suppose will do better in the poll? Do the same poll with 800 Republicans and Romney is winning them 90/10 then Romney will do better in the poll. That is what is being done by skewing samples (obviously on a much smaller scale). Get it? Good
Why? They are that stupid nearly every election. If it were up to women the Democratic party and collectivism would absolutely dominate politics in the US. Sorry to say that, but it's true. The truth is that white male voters are the only thing stopping this country from destroying itself - and there aren't enough of us to hold up the fort for too much longer.
To understand how easily women are fooled in the political realm, realize that in 1980 Ronald Reagan only won the women's vote by 1 point. Horrible as Carter was, he was essentially tied with Reagan for the ladies vote. It was men that overwhelming realized how awful Carter was and threw him out of office.
Yeah, but we’re all perceiving this within the context of an FR bubble.
My prior judgment had been that Romney would indeed win in a landslide. I don’t have a conclusion as of now—I’m only engaging in rational skepticism and questioning my previous outlooks.
“I just have a difficult time believing that a dozen+ different polling outlets would all collusively employ inaccurate sampling.”
Look at how almost all the media refuses to cover Benghazi.
Including Fox News?
Only 18% of the Independent voters polled. LoL.
I guess when Obama is losing up to 20% or more of the Indy vote in poll after poll, OBot pollsters just don’t count them.
“Yeah, but we’re all perceiving this within the context of an FR bubble.”
Did you really just say that? How the hell do you know what we read? There are people on this blog that have run national elections. I myself read hundreds of blogs. Don’t project your own ignorance on all of us.
Believe it..the media is evil is completely invested in Barry...Just curious...where have you been for the last 2 months? Every day there is thread upon thread here showing how the media and left wing sponsored polls oversample Dems in a manner not even close to reality...
Maybe there really are just more Democrats and the political demographic tide has irreversibly turned.
Liberal Fox pollsters are included.
Which is precisely why New Jerseys home boy didn’t need to go into his I adore Obama mode.
Because Rasmussen is always dead on. And Gallup has picked the winner almost every time. Others seem to be meant to drive the media ratings higher, or give media outlets headlines that show Obama winning. Propaganda is one word for it.
I have a couple of ex's that can clear that up for you.. Ha!
I apoligize in advance to any and all female Freepers, who know better, but taken as a whole this is correct. The 19th Amendment has on the whole been horrible for America.
“Why? They are that stupid nearly every election. If it were up to women the Democratic party and collectivism would absolutely dominate politics in the US. Sorry to say that, but it’s true. The truth is that white male voters are the only thing stopping this country from destroying itself - and there aren’t enough of us to hold up the fort for too much longer. “
Lots of white men in northern Europe and they are even bigger socialists than American women.
Being a female, I have to concur with the stupidity of women who overwhelmingly vote Democratic. I think they have replaced the role of government with a spouse or significant other in their lives. Then again, some of them want the go ahead to murder babies.
While I tend to agree - women can be very stupid when it comes to politics. Just give them free abortion, free healthcare, free preventive measures, and you have a bunch of crazies pulling for Obama. Just look at their advertisements!
If they actually think that this works, either we have a bunch of stupid women or we have a bunch of stupid politicians. We will know after the election. I do have hope though that the women are really not crazy after all..
Not projecting, and I’m not making absolute claims about what every single person reads or doesn’t read. But it stands to reason that people overall are prone to selective perception of information favorable to their own outlooks.
R 53, 0 42, a dead heat. :’) Thanks Arthurio.
Now today Fox specifically mention that it's all tied up and Romney's momentum is lagging.
“Including Fox News?”
Fox News may have Hannity and BOR as TV talk show hosts but Shep Smith is the one who actually reports the news. And decides, despite what their motto claims.
THAT
Okay, that’s a reasonable point.
All indications are that 0 is leading in the Electoral College today, and the national popular vote difference is within 2 points.
Early voting notwithstanding, Romney is behind and the race is tightening. If the election is held today, I think 0 will win...
Constant fear mongering makes women vulnerable when they're young. Government becomes their protector/father/husband etc. With age comes wisdom and empowered women realize they don't need government.
“stands to reason that people overall are prone to selective perception of information favorable to their own outlooks.”
I don’t know how many conservatives you hang with but in my world only liberals think like that. This site doesn’t work like DU.
Yeah, but I'm betting northern European women are even worse. That's the problem. All too often women seem to vote on emotion and that usually entails supporting collectivism at a higher level rate than men.
If women would simply stay home and not vote, the Democratic party would have to move much further to the right to win elections in large swaths of the country. We would be a much more conservative, rugged individualist country. If women didn't vote, Romney v Obama would be no contest - Mitt would be cruising to an election landslide of epic proportions.
Ummmm... I will happily take a Pew or Fox poll that has the race tied and incumbent well below 50%, and the GOP far more enthusiastic and likely to vote.
You think those kind of numbers are bad for Romney? Are you kidding?
Gallup had Romney up 5, Ras has him up 2
everyone else had it tied with no one hitting %50. Based on that you’re willing to throw in the towel? There are 6 days to get Obama out of office otherwise you’ll be coming here for the next four years complaining about some program that he enacts. Maybe you should spend your effort over the next 6 days trying to get him out of office instead of trying to depress everyone who is trying to be optimistic. Whatever else we all believe you better believe this, if Obama gets re-elected he has a clear mandate to enact his policies. Complaining a year from now will not change that.
The Obama enthusiasm just isn't there this time around. We remember how it was in 2008. It's not nearly the same in 2012. Hardly any bumper stickers or lawn signs. No huge crowds where Obama speaks (Romney has the crowds this time).
It’s a cognitive bias that’s been well-substantiated by many studies over the decades, nobody has special immunity from it though it can be mitigated. I see both political persuasions being susceptible to it, liberals somewhat more so IMO.
Nuff said.
Because not only are most of these pollsters oversampling Democrats, they are inexplicably, using the 2008 turnout model, which won’t be the turnout for Barack Obama this election. In 2008, Obama had a lock on the Democrat vote, (today he is still trying to solidify his base) he had the Independent vote, (even the current skewed polls have Independents going to Romney) and he also had many Republicans, unhappy with McCain, that voted for him. (Those Republicans have since come home.) In fact, when Obama came into office, he had the support of 70% of the American people, however, a four-year record of his failed policies has all but erased that good will as the majority of those who voted for him in 2008, now have buyer’s remorse.
Young, single women in particular. They must be the most unstable, insecure demographic in the country. The cultural castration of the American male is partly to blame, but for some reason these women believe the government really is going to take care of them. Sad.
you don’t have to believe anything, just look at the internals they are using.
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