Skip to comments.Rove: Sifting the Numbers for a Winner (Calls it for Romney, 51-48!)
Posted on 10/31/2012 5:08:58 PM PDT by TonyInOhio
It comes down to numbers. And in the final days of this presidential race, from polling data to early voting, they favor Mitt Romney.
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In addition to the data, the anecdotal and intangible evidencefrom crowd sizes to each side's closing argumentsgive the sense that the odds favor Mr. Romney. They do. My prediction: Sometime after the cock crows on the morning of Nov. 7, Mitt Romney will be declared America's 45th president. Let's call it 51%-48%, with Mr. Romney carrying at least 279 Electoral College votes, probably more.
(Excerpt) Read more at online.wsj.com ...
I’ll take Karl and Michael Barone any day over AxelDork and Daisy Duck Cutter
Sorry, but I think the Independents are going to be the game changer here. Add to it the gender gap that doesn’t exist to the extent it did. And then the Blacks and Hispanics that are going to peal off.
If Hispanics in California are going to vote strongly against homosexual marriage, what are they going to do with a guy who has come out in favor of it?
We’ll see. Obama November 7th is not going to be a good day.
Rove is on O’Reilly right now. He just said that Romney is going to win Ohio.
This election will not be that close. I think it will at least be 53-46 nationally.
I’d liked to know how he comes up with the 279 number.
What I’d really like to know is when they are going to fix this dam site. this has gone from ridiculous to pathetic
I couldn’t stand Rove as the gloomy gus on Fox showing Obama at over 300 electoral votes all summer and September.
I believe Romney will win. What I’m wondering is how big of a margin will Romney need - both in terms of popular vote percentage as well as electoral college votes - to prevent numerous and interminable legal challenges by the socialists? That same question applies to all the races right down to dog catcher... The cynic in me says even a 15% win and 300+ electoral college numbers won’t prevent bogus legal challenges. Hey, it’s only other peoples’ money they’re spending...
They HAVE TO fix this site by election night! I NEED a place to gloat and be happy and spread the joy!
I love the comments...especially the guy who says Obama will win based on “math.” Apparently the guy has no idea that the “math” is based on D+4 to D+11 samples.
I see it R-52, O-47 with 291-311 depending on PA.
We could infer Rove thinks so too if he's ready to stick his neck out this far this publicly. Most pundits hedge their predictions every which way.
Or a place to curse Christie to hell...
The same Karl Rove that took two blowout victories when it was his turn to run a presidential campaign and turned them into nailbiters that had to be won in overtime.
You remember the 2008 concept of “broken glass Republicans”? Do you know why you don’t hear that here any more? Because it was this false premise that Republicans would turn out in huge numbers. It was wrong. We got slaughtered in turnout. So some of us are quite gun shy about making any kind of assumption that we will swamp them. Possible, but far from certain.
Rush Limbaugh (who revolts me more than I can say) says that Christie’s was a move of pure genius! He took the kenyan off the campaign trail to dick around in a state that he’ll win hands down. I don’t like rush, but I suppose he might be correct about this.
The answer to this question is "two swing states".
If one swing state is close enough to demand a recount that alters who wins the election with the Republican ahead (FL '00, OH '04), the Dems will engage in massive recount challenges and frauds in an attempt to win.
So the winning margin has to be two swing states so that one cannot change the outcome. While everyone thinks that swing state is Ohio (18 votes), it might turn out to be Pennsylvania (20 votes), Wisconsin (11 votes) or even New Hampshire (4 votes) that could be needed at the wire.
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