Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Rove: Sifting the Numbers for a Winner (Calls it for Romney, 51-48!)
The Wall Street Journal ^ | 11/01/12 | Karl Rove

Posted on 10/31/2012 5:08:58 PM PDT by TonyInOhio

It comes down to numbers. And in the final days of this presidential race, from polling data to early voting, they favor Mitt Romney.

~ snip ~

In addition to the data, the anecdotal and intangible evidence—from crowd sizes to each side's closing arguments—give the sense that the odds favor Mr. Romney. They do. My prediction: Sometime after the cock crows on the morning of Nov. 7, Mitt Romney will be declared America's 45th president. Let's call it 51%-48%, with Mr. Romney carrying at least 279 Electoral College votes, probably more.

(Excerpt) Read more at online.wsj.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012predictions; mittmentum; romney2012; rove; victory
No love lost for Karl Rove around here, but there is no denying the man knows elections, and the Crossroads PAC he put together kept Romney in the game throughout the summer. If you were worried before, you can stop now - I think he has it exactly right.
1 posted on 10/31/2012 5:08:58 PM PDT by TonyInOhio
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: TonyInOhio

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2952994/posts


2 posted on 10/31/2012 5:09:48 PM PDT by tsowellfan (KEEP WORKING like we are 10 POINTS DOWN!!!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: TonyInOhio

I’ll take Karl and Michael Barone any day over AxelDork and Daisy Duck Cutter


3 posted on 10/31/2012 5:11:18 PM PDT by patriotspride
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: TonyInOhio

55/42 Romney...

Sorry, but I think the Independents are going to be the game changer here. Add to it the gender gap that doesn’t exist to the extent it did. And then the Blacks and Hispanics that are going to peal off.

If Hispanics in California are going to vote strongly against homosexual marriage, what are they going to do with a guy who has come out in favor of it?

We’ll see. Obama November 7th is not going to be a good day.


4 posted on 10/31/2012 5:12:58 PM PDT by DoughtyOne (Pres__ent Resident NBC NRD N3pmCs HCR / no birth C / no req docs / no 3pm calls / he can read)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: TonyInOhio

Rove is on O’Reilly right now. He just said that Romney is going to win Ohio.


5 posted on 10/31/2012 5:14:49 PM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (Osama bin Laden is dead, Chrysler moved to Italy and China.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: TonyInOhio

This election will not be that close. I think it will at least be 53-46 nationally.


6 posted on 10/31/2012 5:15:38 PM PDT by Tennessean4Bush (An optimist believes we live in the best of all possible worlds. A pessimist fears this is true.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: TonyInOhio
I’d liked to know how he comes up with the 279 number
7 posted on 10/31/2012 5:17:39 PM PDT by paul51 (11 September 2001 - Never forget)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: TonyInOhio

I’d liked to know how he comes up with the 279 number.
What I’d really like to know is when they are going to fix this dam site. this has gone from ridiculous to pathetic


8 posted on 10/31/2012 5:19:09 PM PDT by paul51 (11 September 2001 - Never forget)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: FlingWingFlyer

I couldn’t stand Rove as the gloomy gus on Fox showing Obama at over 300 electoral votes all summer and September.


9 posted on 10/31/2012 5:19:12 PM PDT by AU72
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: TonyInOhio

I believe Romney will win. What I’m wondering is how big of a margin will Romney need - both in terms of popular vote percentage as well as electoral college votes - to prevent numerous and interminable legal challenges by the socialists? That same question applies to all the races right down to dog catcher... The cynic in me says even a 15% win and 300+ electoral college numbers won’t prevent bogus legal challenges. Hey, it’s only other peoples’ money they’re spending...


10 posted on 10/31/2012 5:24:08 PM PDT by ThunderSleeps (Stop obama now! Stop the hussein - insane agenda!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: paul51

They HAVE TO fix this site by election night! I NEED a place to gloat and be happy and spread the joy!


11 posted on 10/31/2012 5:28:37 PM PDT by Doctor 2Brains (If the government were Paris Hilton, it could not score a free drink in a bar full of lonely sailors)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: TonyInOhio

I love the comments...especially the guy who says Obama will win based on “math.” Apparently the guy has no idea that the “math” is based on D+4 to D+11 samples.


12 posted on 10/31/2012 5:30:06 PM PDT by ez (When you're a hammer, everything looks like a nail.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: TonyInOhio

I see it R-52, O-47 with 291-311 depending on PA.


13 posted on 10/31/2012 5:30:11 PM PDT by Mike Darancette (Obama didn't fix it!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: DoughtyOne
I agree with you - I think it will be bigger.

We could infer Rove thinks so too if he's ready to stick his neck out this far this publicly. Most pundits hedge their predictions every which way.

14 posted on 10/31/2012 5:30:33 PM PDT by colorado tanker
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: Doctor 2Brains

Or a place to curse Christie to hell...


15 posted on 10/31/2012 5:35:52 PM PDT by paul544
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

Support Free Republic

16 posted on 10/31/2012 5:36:35 PM PDT by RedMDer (https://support.woundedwarriorproject.org/default.aspx?tsid=om93destr)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: TonyInOhio

The same Karl Rove that took two blowout victories when it was his turn to run a presidential campaign and turned them into nailbiters that had to be won in overtime.


17 posted on 10/31/2012 5:39:11 PM PDT by OrangeHoof (Our economy won't heal until one particular black man is unemployed.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ez

You remember the 2008 concept of “broken glass Republicans”? Do you know why you don’t hear that here any more? Because it was this false premise that Republicans would turn out in huge numbers. It was wrong. We got slaughtered in turnout. So some of us are quite gun shy about making any kind of assumption that we will swamp them. Possible, but far from certain.


18 posted on 10/31/2012 5:43:59 PM PDT by paul544
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: paul544

Rush Limbaugh (who revolts me more than I can say) says that Christie’s was a move of pure genius! He took the kenyan off the campaign trail to dick around in a state that he’ll win hands down. I don’t like rush, but I suppose he might be correct about this.


19 posted on 10/31/2012 5:45:28 PM PDT by Doctor 2Brains (If the government were Paris Hilton, it could not score a free drink in a bar full of lonely sailors)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: ThunderSleeps
What I’m wondering is how big of a margin will Romney need - both in terms of popular vote percentage as well as electoral college votes - to prevent numerous and interminable legal challenges by the socialists?

The answer to this question is "two swing states".

If one swing state is close enough to demand a recount that alters who wins the election with the Republican ahead (FL '00, OH '04), the Dems will engage in massive recount challenges and frauds in an attempt to win.

So the winning margin has to be two swing states so that one cannot change the outcome. While everyone thinks that swing state is Ohio (18 votes), it might turn out to be Pennsylvania (20 votes), Wisconsin (11 votes) or even New Hampshire (4 votes) that could be needed at the wire.

20 posted on 10/31/2012 5:46:07 PM PDT by OrangeHoof (Our economy won't heal until one particular black man is unemployed.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: Doctor 2Brains

I don’t care about gloating. I just want Romney to win to put an end to this Obama nonsense.


21 posted on 10/31/2012 5:47:43 PM PDT by ari-freedom
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: TonyInOhio
"Sometime after the cock crows on the morning of Nov. 7, Mitt Romney will be declared America's 45th president."

I'm confused by that sentence. If Romney wins why would Axelrod be crowing on the 7th

/sarc

22 posted on 10/31/2012 5:50:57 PM PDT by The Hound Passer
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: TonyInOhio

Those poll numbers today were miserable. Yeah, I know... oversampling and all that. It was still heartbreaking to see them.


23 posted on 10/31/2012 5:52:59 PM PDT by MeanGreen2008
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Doctor 2Brains

I heard that too but disagree. He took him off the trail and put him front and center on national TV in the most positive light possible. Obama could campaign for a month and not get that kind of coverage. No. Christie F’d us good.


24 posted on 10/31/2012 5:54:47 PM PDT by paul544
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: Doctor 2Brains

dream on. save yourself a lot of frustration and aggravation and find another place to gloat and be happy


25 posted on 10/31/2012 5:59:08 PM PDT by paul51 (11 September 2001 - Never forget)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: paul51
I’d liked to know how he comes up with the 279 number.

R loses OH, MI & PA wins NV, CO, IA & WI, FL & VA you know the rest.

26 posted on 10/31/2012 6:00:53 PM PDT by Mike Darancette (Obama didn't fix it!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: Doctor 2Brains
They HAVE TO fix this site by election night! I NEED a place to gloat and be happy and spread the joy!

I know! After all we've endured the past four years, not being able to celebrate with my FRiends would be a real letdown. (although I have a bottle of wine that will still not survive the night in any event) Plus, I don't have TV; where will I read the stories about the hysterical meltdowns at MSDNC?
27 posted on 10/31/2012 6:04:07 PM PDT by LostInBayport (When there are more people riding in the cart than there are pulling it, the cart stops moving...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: MeanGreen2008
Those poll numbers today were miserable. Yeah, I know... oversampling and all that.

C'mon, man, buck up! That PPP number that got you down wasn't "oversampling", it was outright fraud! Do you think that Obama will increase his turnout from 2008, a year in which the first black man was running on the back of a financial meltdown? You have to be willfully blind not to see how apathetic Barry's supporters are to vote, yet PPP wants you to believe some 5% more voters than 2008 will show up to vote for him this time around. It's a blatant lie, designed to depress GOP turnout, and it looks like it might have had an effect on you.

Do this - ignore the polling, and look at the actual results from early and absentee voting that are cited by Rove in the article. Then, have faith.

28 posted on 10/31/2012 6:12:58 PM PDT by TonyInOhio (O-H-I-O, Barry - misspell our name and we kick you out!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 23 | View Replies]

To: TonyInOhio
Political pundits are like weatherman. They are wrong more than half the time but they still somehow get put on TV every night like they are some kind of expert.

Karl Rove fits right in here - with both pundits and weathermen. All summer long, he was blathering that all was lost for Romney and that Obama was poised to collect 300+ electoral votes. Now that he is obviously about to be proved very wrong, he is revising his forecast at the last minute. But he's not going completely in the other direction and saying that Romney will get over 300+ EVs. Oh no! If he did that, he'd have to admit that he was totally wrong all summer long.

So like a weatherman, he's going to hedge his bets. He's going to give us a forecast of partly cloudy with a 50% chance of rain. That way, either if it is sunny or it rains, he can claim that his forecast was close.

So basically if Romney does get over 300+ EVs, Rove can say he was close, after all he predicted 279 EVs. But if Obama ekes out a narrow win, Rove can still claim to be not that far off the mark.

So he's nothing more than a weatherman predicting partly cloudy with a 50% chance of rain. Any bum hanging out at the Circus Circus in Las Vegas can make that prediction.

29 posted on 10/31/2012 6:17:55 PM PDT by SamAdams76
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: paul51
I’d liked to know how he comes up with the 279 number.

He wins FL, VA, NC, NH, and OH, and does not carry the 2nd District of Maine (which splits it's Electoral College votes by district). The result is a 279-259 win. My own guess is that he will carry Iowa and Maine's 2nd District to win 285 votes. If the early surge pans out, he carries Wisconsin, too, to get to 295.

30 posted on 10/31/2012 6:18:59 PM PDT by TonyInOhio (O-H-I-O, Barry - misspell our name and we kick you out!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: paul51

This is a 279 ev map. http://goo.gl/hG2vy


31 posted on 10/31/2012 6:19:43 PM PDT by Arthurio
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: Doctor 2Brains
They HAVE TO fix this site by election night! I NEED a place to gloat and be happy and spread the joy!

I f it gets this bad I will spend election night on Democratic Underground or some such site. Will still be fun though.

32 posted on 10/31/2012 6:21:08 PM PDT by Vince Ferrer
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: TonyInOhio

My prediction, Electoral Vote: R - 338, O - 200. Popular vote: R - 52%, O - 47%, Other: 1%


33 posted on 10/31/2012 6:22:13 PM PDT by ConservativeInPA (In a previous life I was ...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: TonyInOhio
Let's call it 51%-48%, with Mr. Romney carrying at least 279 Electoral College votes, probably more.

I think those numbers are too conservative. Romney will get at least 53% and 320 Electoral Votes.

34 posted on 10/31/2012 6:36:37 PM PDT by Repeal 16-17 (Let me know when the Shooting starts.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: TonyInOhio; All

I don’t care squat what Rove says...he needs to retire from public life. I am still not happy with Romney being the GOP pick, but his debate performance has earned him some respect.

Bottom line, for me, is that I don’t care if Romney wins by one electorial vote...I just don’t want to see Obama be reelected. Romney isn’t going to be a good or great POTUS, but he will be worlds better than Obama.


35 posted on 10/31/2012 7:00:25 PM PDT by Sola Veritas (Trying to speak truth - not always with the best grammar or spelling)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Sola Veritas

I do care the number of ECs Romney gets. If it’s 270 or low 270s, it’s in danger of being blackmailed by the so-called unfaithful electors.


36 posted on 10/31/2012 7:14:24 PM PDT by paudio (5Bs: Bain, Big-bird, Binders, Bayonets, and... Bullshiter ! <= 0bama's campaign message)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 35 | View Replies]

To: TonyInOhio
A look at the map raise the question down to three states, Ohio and Wisconsin and Iowa.

These questions are yes no/questions, Romney either wins or loses these states and the election. How would you bet if you had to?

Romney is more likely than not take Ohio. Early voting, intensity, ground game, undecideds, generation gap, momentum, are all running in Romney's favor. It would be very unlikely for Obama to overcome these deficiencies in view of his 47% ceiling. Since we must choose, we pick Romney.

Romney is more likely than not to take Wisconsin. He has the recent historical election experiences, the momentum, the ground game certainly, and Paul Ryan in addition to generation gap and the undecideds. If you have to choose, and you do, Romney is the likely winner.

With either Ohio or Wisconsin, Romney wins the race and will be the next president. He need not win Iowa but only win new Hampshire where he is likely to win.

Furthermore, it is likely that Romney will win both Ohio and Wisconsin and probably Iowa. The only question that is open is Pennsylvania which is needed only to bring Romney up to 315 (316 with one vote from Maine). Michigan is even in the mix and will go to Romney in a landslide but right now, since we have to pick, I pick Obama to win Michigan. I pick Obama to win Nevada but both of these last states in a landslide will go Romney.


37 posted on 10/31/2012 7:20:17 PM PDT by nathanbedford ("Attack, repeat, attack!" Bull Halsey)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 30 | View Replies]

To: Arthurio

okay,here’s mine:

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=22221211122112122221111122222221111221112222221112211222


38 posted on 10/31/2012 7:49:33 PM PDT by FrdmLvr (culture, language, borders)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 31 | View Replies]

To: FrdmLvr

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=22221211122112122221111122222221111221112222221112211222


39 posted on 10/31/2012 8:06:15 PM PDT by MuttTheHoople (Pray for Joe Biden- Proverbs 29:9)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 38 | View Replies]

To: AU72

Me either but he was right. This time around he has a super pac going so I wonder if he’s really objective.


40 posted on 10/31/2012 8:08:50 PM PDT by Tea Party Terrorist (Your tattoo looks stupid.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: Tea Party Terrorist

Rove knows his stuff as a political operative. And the fact that he is spending millions in OH, PA, WI, etc, tells us a lot no? You think Rove is just throwing money here and there? He has his own polling firm to help decide where to spending those millions. He knows the state of the race in OH and the other close states. Probably just as well as RR.


41 posted on 10/31/2012 8:15:33 PM PDT by gswilder
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 40 | View Replies]

To: ConservativeInPA

Your numbers are on the conservative side... :)


42 posted on 10/31/2012 8:34:36 PM PDT by GGpaX4DumpedTea (I am a Tea Party descendant...steeped in the Constitutional Republic given to us by the Founders.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 33 | View Replies]

To: Tennessean4Bush

You’re close. 52-47. :)


43 posted on 10/31/2012 8:43:29 PM PDT by Private_Sector_Does_It_Better (I AM ANDREW BREITBART)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: Doctor 2Brains

Rush didn’t say that’s what he believes..just that it was a possibility.
I don’t think that’s what Crispy had in mind. He is a drama queen and a sensationalist and all he cares about is getting money for his state.
He is also a RINO and a traitor to praise Bam like he did.


44 posted on 10/31/2012 8:50:18 PM PDT by Mountain Mary (Pray for our Republic...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: ThunderSleeps
The election is over. All decisions have been made. The last few polling days don't matter. Wisconsin, PA and Ohio all go for Romney. Final results: Romney 53 - Obama 47. If I am dead-on I expect some recognition on election day.

Katiana - Long Time Lurker - New Member

45 posted on 10/31/2012 8:53:41 PM PDT by Katiana Kalashnikova
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: Katiana Kalashnikova; ThunderSleeps; Tennessean4Bush; ConservativeInPA; ...

This is as good as it gets - neck out, but not far...these are numbers I put together a week ago, using various sources.

WA, CA, HI, IL, VT, NY, ME, MA, RI, CT, NJ, DE, MD, DC = 179 Obama

All the rest = 359 Romney

Popular Vote, Romney 54% Obama 46%

The map is a sea of red, with a black & blue sore thumb hanging off the tip of Lake Michigan. I have Oregon Red - it can happen - and that keeps the left coast from being all blue. And New Hampshire keeps the northeast from being solid blue. I like it. We ALL gotta get out the vote and we can make it happen. And btw, I have my state, Ohio, 54% to 46% Romney.


46 posted on 10/31/2012 9:13:45 PM PDT by GGpaX4DumpedTea (I am a Tea Party descendant...steeped in the Constitutional Republic given to us by the Founders.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 45 | View Replies]

Comment #47 Removed by Moderator

To: TonyInOhio

On my morning 5 mile walk, I spotted 3 Obama signs and 2 Romney signs...in a most-Dem stronghold in Silicon Valley. One of the Romney signs had a nice, large, simple sign above it: “Defend Freedom. Defeat Obama.” I see maybe one or two Obama signs on my daily commute and I must see the rear bumper on 100 to 150 cars per day. Even so, the feeling is California is lost, so people are going to Reno to canvass door-to-door there. Too bad Oregon is so far away...it may be in play.


48 posted on 10/31/2012 9:32:52 PM PDT by ProtectOurFreedom
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: paul51

Romney getting OH,CO,NH (along with VA,NC,FL)

Watch OR Obama can not get above 47% in any poll in the last month. If the Undecided break for the challenger 4 to 1 that is a 51 to 48 Romney win.


49 posted on 10/31/2012 9:35:43 PM PDT by Freeze923
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: Mountain Mary

“He is also a RINO and a traitor to praise Bam like he did.”

Funny, but all through the primary season, Christie was not only called a RINO on these pages, but also a traitor for his cheerleading on behalf of Romney. He was onboard the Romney Express while everyone here was waiting for Sarah to announce.


50 posted on 10/31/2012 9:57:27 PM PDT by EDINVA (I)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 44 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson