Skip to comments.Rove: Sifting the Numbers for a Winner (Calls it for Romney, 51-48!)
Posted on 10/31/2012 5:08:58 PM PDT by TonyInOhio
It comes down to numbers. And in the final days of this presidential race, from polling data to early voting, they favor Mitt Romney.
~ snip ~
In addition to the data, the anecdotal and intangible evidencefrom crowd sizes to each side's closing argumentsgive the sense that the odds favor Mr. Romney. They do. My prediction: Sometime after the cock crows on the morning of Nov. 7, Mitt Romney will be declared America's 45th president. Let's call it 51%-48%, with Mr. Romney carrying at least 279 Electoral College votes, probably more.
(Excerpt) Read more at online.wsj.com ...
I’ll take Karl and Michael Barone any day over AxelDork and Daisy Duck Cutter
Sorry, but I think the Independents are going to be the game changer here. Add to it the gender gap that doesn’t exist to the extent it did. And then the Blacks and Hispanics that are going to peal off.
If Hispanics in California are going to vote strongly against homosexual marriage, what are they going to do with a guy who has come out in favor of it?
We’ll see. Obama November 7th is not going to be a good day.
Rove is on O’Reilly right now. He just said that Romney is going to win Ohio.
This election will not be that close. I think it will at least be 53-46 nationally.
I’d liked to know how he comes up with the 279 number.
What I’d really like to know is when they are going to fix this dam site. this has gone from ridiculous to pathetic
I couldn’t stand Rove as the gloomy gus on Fox showing Obama at over 300 electoral votes all summer and September.
I believe Romney will win. What I’m wondering is how big of a margin will Romney need - both in terms of popular vote percentage as well as electoral college votes - to prevent numerous and interminable legal challenges by the socialists? That same question applies to all the races right down to dog catcher... The cynic in me says even a 15% win and 300+ electoral college numbers won’t prevent bogus legal challenges. Hey, it’s only other peoples’ money they’re spending...
They HAVE TO fix this site by election night! I NEED a place to gloat and be happy and spread the joy!
I love the comments...especially the guy who says Obama will win based on “math.” Apparently the guy has no idea that the “math” is based on D+4 to D+11 samples.
I see it R-52, O-47 with 291-311 depending on PA.
We could infer Rove thinks so too if he's ready to stick his neck out this far this publicly. Most pundits hedge their predictions every which way.
Or a place to curse Christie to hell...
The same Karl Rove that took two blowout victories when it was his turn to run a presidential campaign and turned them into nailbiters that had to be won in overtime.
You remember the 2008 concept of “broken glass Republicans”? Do you know why you don’t hear that here any more? Because it was this false premise that Republicans would turn out in huge numbers. It was wrong. We got slaughtered in turnout. So some of us are quite gun shy about making any kind of assumption that we will swamp them. Possible, but far from certain.
Rush Limbaugh (who revolts me more than I can say) says that Christie’s was a move of pure genius! He took the kenyan off the campaign trail to dick around in a state that he’ll win hands down. I don’t like rush, but I suppose he might be correct about this.
The answer to this question is "two swing states".
If one swing state is close enough to demand a recount that alters who wins the election with the Republican ahead (FL '00, OH '04), the Dems will engage in massive recount challenges and frauds in an attempt to win.
So the winning margin has to be two swing states so that one cannot change the outcome. While everyone thinks that swing state is Ohio (18 votes), it might turn out to be Pennsylvania (20 votes), Wisconsin (11 votes) or even New Hampshire (4 votes) that could be needed at the wire.
I don’t care about gloating. I just want Romney to win to put an end to this Obama nonsense.
I'm confused by that sentence. If Romney wins why would Axelrod be crowing on the 7th
Those poll numbers today were miserable. Yeah, I know... oversampling and all that. It was still heartbreaking to see them.
I heard that too but disagree. He took him off the trail and put him front and center on national TV in the most positive light possible. Obama could campaign for a month and not get that kind of coverage. No. Christie F’d us good.
dream on. save yourself a lot of frustration and aggravation and find another place to gloat and be happy
R loses OH, MI & PA wins NV, CO, IA & WI, FL & VA you know the rest.
C'mon, man, buck up! That PPP number that got you down wasn't "oversampling", it was outright fraud! Do you think that Obama will increase his turnout from 2008, a year in which the first black man was running on the back of a financial meltdown? You have to be willfully blind not to see how apathetic Barry's supporters are to vote, yet PPP wants you to believe some 5% more voters than 2008 will show up to vote for him this time around. It's a blatant lie, designed to depress GOP turnout, and it looks like it might have had an effect on you.
Do this - ignore the polling, and look at the actual results from early and absentee voting that are cited by Rove in the article. Then, have faith.
Karl Rove fits right in here - with both pundits and weathermen. All summer long, he was blathering that all was lost for Romney and that Obama was poised to collect 300+ electoral votes. Now that he is obviously about to be proved very wrong, he is revising his forecast at the last minute. But he's not going completely in the other direction and saying that Romney will get over 300+ EVs. Oh no! If he did that, he'd have to admit that he was totally wrong all summer long.
So like a weatherman, he's going to hedge his bets. He's going to give us a forecast of partly cloudy with a 50% chance of rain. That way, either if it is sunny or it rains, he can claim that his forecast was close.
So basically if Romney does get over 300+ EVs, Rove can say he was close, after all he predicted 279 EVs. But if Obama ekes out a narrow win, Rove can still claim to be not that far off the mark.
So he's nothing more than a weatherman predicting partly cloudy with a 50% chance of rain. Any bum hanging out at the Circus Circus in Las Vegas can make that prediction.
He wins FL, VA, NC, NH, and OH, and does not carry the 2nd District of Maine (which splits it's Electoral College votes by district). The result is a 279-259 win. My own guess is that he will carry Iowa and Maine's 2nd District to win 285 votes. If the early surge pans out, he carries Wisconsin, too, to get to 295.
This is a 279 ev map. http://goo.gl/hG2vy
I f it gets this bad I will spend election night on Democratic Underground or some such site. Will still be fun though.
My prediction, Electoral Vote: R - 338, O - 200. Popular vote: R - 52%, O - 47%, Other: 1%
I think those numbers are too conservative. Romney will get at least 53% and 320 Electoral Votes.
I don’t care squat what Rove says...he needs to retire from public life. I am still not happy with Romney being the GOP pick, but his debate performance has earned him some respect.
Bottom line, for me, is that I don’t care if Romney wins by one electorial vote...I just don’t want to see Obama be reelected. Romney isn’t going to be a good or great POTUS, but he will be worlds better than Obama.
I do care the number of ECs Romney gets. If it’s 270 or low 270s, it’s in danger of being blackmailed by the so-called unfaithful electors.
These questions are yes no/questions, Romney either wins or loses these states and the election. How would you bet if you had to?
Romney is more likely than not take Ohio. Early voting, intensity, ground game, undecideds, generation gap, momentum, are all running in Romney's favor. It would be very unlikely for Obama to overcome these deficiencies in view of his 47% ceiling. Since we must choose, we pick Romney.
Romney is more likely than not to take Wisconsin. He has the recent historical election experiences, the momentum, the ground game certainly, and Paul Ryan in addition to generation gap and the undecideds. If you have to choose, and you do, Romney is the likely winner.
With either Ohio or Wisconsin, Romney wins the race and will be the next president. He need not win Iowa but only win new Hampshire where he is likely to win.
Furthermore, it is likely that Romney will win both Ohio and Wisconsin and probably Iowa. The only question that is open is Pennsylvania which is needed only to bring Romney up to 315 (316 with one vote from Maine). Michigan is even in the mix and will go to Romney in a landslide but right now, since we have to pick, I pick Obama to win Michigan. I pick Obama to win Nevada but both of these last states in a landslide will go Romney.
Me either but he was right. This time around he has a super pac going so I wonder if he’s really objective.
Rove knows his stuff as a political operative. And the fact that he is spending millions in OH, PA, WI, etc, tells us a lot no? You think Rove is just throwing money here and there? He has his own polling firm to help decide where to spending those millions. He knows the state of the race in OH and the other close states. Probably just as well as RR.
Your numbers are on the conservative side... :)
You’re close. 52-47. :)
Rush didn’t say that’s what he believes..just that it was a possibility.
I don’t think that’s what Crispy had in mind. He is a drama queen and a sensationalist and all he cares about is getting money for his state.
He is also a RINO and a traitor to praise Bam like he did.
Katiana - Long Time Lurker - New Member
This is as good as it gets - neck out, but not far...these are numbers I put together a week ago, using various sources.
WA, CA, HI, IL, VT, NY, ME, MA, RI, CT, NJ, DE, MD, DC = 179 Obama
All the rest = 359 Romney
Popular Vote, Romney 54% Obama 46%
The map is a sea of red, with a black & blue sore thumb hanging off the tip of Lake Michigan. I have Oregon Red - it can happen - and that keeps the left coast from being all blue. And New Hampshire keeps the northeast from being solid blue. I like it. We ALL gotta get out the vote and we can make it happen. And btw, I have my state, Ohio, 54% to 46% Romney.
On my morning 5 mile walk, I spotted 3 Obama signs and 2 Romney signs...in a most-Dem stronghold in Silicon Valley. One of the Romney signs had a nice, large, simple sign above it: “Defend Freedom. Defeat Obama.” I see maybe one or two Obama signs on my daily commute and I must see the rear bumper on 100 to 150 cars per day. Even so, the feeling is California is lost, so people are going to Reno to canvass door-to-door there. Too bad Oregon is so far away...it may be in play.
Romney getting OH,CO,NH (along with VA,NC,FL)
Watch OR Obama can not get above 47% in any poll in the last month. If the Undecided break for the challenger 4 to 1 that is a 51 to 48 Romney win.
“He is also a RINO and a traitor to praise Bam like he did.”
Funny, but all through the primary season, Christie was not only called a RINO on these pages, but also a traitor for his cheerleading on behalf of Romney. He was onboard the Romney Express while everyone here was waiting for Sarah to announce.