Well if the enthusiasm is so great and evangelicals are so pumped up about voting out Obama, why aren’t we seeing it ? Why is Rasmussen still the only poll that shows Romney winning the election and virtually every other state and national poll showing otherwise ? And why are so many Obama supporters so convinced Obama will win (you can see this on Democratic Underground, Daily Kos and other places) ? I just feel that if the Republican and conservative enthusiasm was as great as people say it is, it would be so blatantly clear Obama is winning that noone could come up with nay kind of poll at all showing Obama is winning and every hardline leftist site would already be conceding defeat.
I mean, during this time of the elections in 1980 and 1984, wasn’t it already so obvious that Reagan was gonna win by this time that his opponents’ supporters were pretty much already admitting defeat ? At the very least, this is not looking like 1980 or 1984, and based on reports I have heard about Conservative enthusiasm I thought it would already be looking like a Reagan election by now. Are the genuine conservatives and evangelicals just gearing up for a final day surprise to catch everyone off guard or something ? Where is the Conservative enthusiasm and where is the proof it is so much higher than hardline liberal enthusiasm ? It should have already been obvious to virtually every American by now.
Gallup showed Romney in the lead too.
“Why is Rasmussen still the only poll that shows Romney winning the election and virtually every other state and national poll showing otherwise ?”
Because most of the pollsters are using the 2008 election model. No way is that going to happen in 2012.
Actually iirc Regan was behind in the polls up to election day when he cleaned Carter’s clock.
But to address why the Dems are so confident- I would describe it as an overdose of the kool aid. Remember these are people who fell hook, line, and sinker for a campaign that had nothing more than Hope and Change to sell as a platform. Now they are peddling the same nonsense coupled to a dismal record and consider it a brilliant campaign. I think it is a matter of delusion.
The thing that makes it clear that The Disaster is losing is that the only way they can concoct a lead for him is by heavily slanting the polled to the RATs. I have NEVER seen ONE poll showing him ahead where there was a reasonable split. And look at the RAT campaign it is now back to where it was in March and NO ONE believes them anymore.
BTW polls NEVER showed Reagan was winning in a landslide or winning at all.
Your entire laundry list of questions has been answered in dozens of threads, with detailed and convincing arguments backed up by hard data.
Why not read the answers provided already? Or is the point of your questions something other than a search for answers?
Romney is winning. As things stand right now, he is looking at a 4-6 point margin of victory. There is a *small* chance, if things break perfectly for Obama, that it could be close. But this would require depressed Republican and independent turnout, coupled with extremely high Democrat turnout — the current data is strongly suggestive that neither will happen. The third scenario, a Romney blowout, is the second most likely outcome. This would require Democrat turnout to be particularly low. While still a low probability event, there is some convincing data that suggests that this is a real possibility.
As far as 1980 is concerned. I knew plenty of democrats who were even more confident than Obama supporters are now. The polls were close, and the media kept saying that the race was a tossup, and clearly expected a Carter win. They were beyond shell-shocked by the actual results.
But, I would ask again, if all of the answers you seek are already out there, why did you create this buffet of pearl-clutching questions?
Your entire laundry list of questions has been answered in dozens of threads, with detailed and convincing arguments backed up by hard data. In fact, you can hardly swing a cat around here without hitting an answer to at least one of your questions.
Why not read the answers provided already? Or is the point of your questions something other than a search for answers?
Romney is winning. As things stand right now, he is looking at a 4-6 point margin of victory. There is a *small* chance, if things break perfectly for Obama, that it could be close. But this would require depressed Republican and independent turnout, coupled with extremely high Democrat turnout — the current data is strongly suggestive that neither will happen. The third scenario, a Romney blowout, is the second most likely outcome. This would require Democrat turnout to be particularly low. While still a low probability event, there is some convincing data that suggests that this is a real possibility.
As far as 1980 is concerned. I knew plenty of democrats who were even more confident than Obama supporters are now. The polls were close, and the media kept saying that the race was a tossup, and clearly expected a Carter win. They were beyond shell-shocked by the actual results.
But, I would ask again, if all of the answers you seek are already out there, why did you create this buffet of pearl-clutching questions?
“Why is Rasmussen still the only poll that shows Romney winning the election and virtually every other state and national poll showing otherwise ?”
Keep this in mind. As liberal as the Corrupt Media is, so are the polling arms of that media. They are overpolling Ds sometimes by 8 and 9 points - of course that’s going to look better for obaMAO. The ONLY narrative they have is to maintain this crock. Romney will win by 3 to 5 points. Here’s a good article by Karl Rove discussing this:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204846304578090820229096046.html?mod=WSJ_hps_sections_opinion
Nonetheless, there are 4 R/R votes here, including two 18 year olds who are voting in their first Presidential election ever
The evangelicals that we have spoken to are casting their vote on election day. My husband got six different voters via phone on Saturday night that were Evangelicals. (I was door knocking and missed the Ohio phone marathon) As of Saturday, there are 24 hour prayer vigils that are ongoing. The intensity of determination to vote and volunteer that has been building since the 1st of September. We worked the Reagan campaign in Ohio, this campaign seems to have more urgency than that one.
It is there, and that is why Obama is fighting for his own States.
And the internal polls have to fudged to give a much higher +D in these States.
Looking at the REAL internals, it does look like 1980 or even 1984.