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Polls: Obama Ahead in 3 Key States [WI and NH Romney "Within Striking Distance"]
Wall St. J ^ | October 31, 2012 | NEIL KING JR.

Posted on 10/31/2012 10:21:06 PM PDT by Steelfish

Polls: Obama Ahead in 3 Key States Romney Moves Within Striking Distance in New Hampshire, Wisconsin, but Iowa Looks Out of Reach

BY NEIL KING JR.

President Barack Obama holds narrow leads over Mitt Romney in the battleground states of Wisconsin, New Hampshire and Iowa as the candidates enter the campaign's final days, new polling shows.

In Wisconsin and New Hampshire, Mr. Romney remains well within striking distance, despite signs that opinions are hardening and the pool of undecided voters remains small, according to new Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Marist Poll surveys.

Mr. Obama holds a 49%-46% lead in Wisconsin among likely voters, half what it was two weeks ago, and a 49%-47% lead in New Hampshire, down from his lead of 7 percentage points there in ..

(Excerpt) Read more at online.wsj.com ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Iowa; US: New Hampshire; US: Wisconsin
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; marist; nbc

1 posted on 10/31/2012 10:21:11 PM PDT by Steelfish
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To: Steelfish

If we can take Wisconsin, New Hampshire and Colorado, we don’t need Ohio to win — although I think if we get all three of those, Ohio will be in the bag for us as well.


2 posted on 10/31/2012 10:25:27 PM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: Steelfish

Nobody, but nobody, posts polls where Romney is behind on this forum more than you. Late into the evening too. Tell Obama we said “Hi”.


3 posted on 10/31/2012 10:26:29 PM PDT by CatOwner
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To: Steelfish

You only get to see this stuff twice in a lifetime- once when you are young and then you can tell young people when it is about to happen again.

I saw in in 1980 and we are about to see it once more.

Romney smokes obama.

Straight up.


4 posted on 10/31/2012 10:26:34 PM PDT by One Name (Ultimately, the TRUTH is a razor's edge and no man can sit astride it.)
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To: Steelfish

Yeah, yeah, yeah. The Kenyan is about to get his *** kicked. These goofy “polls” are all over the place. America is fed up. These “polls” don’t mean anything.


5 posted on 10/31/2012 10:26:42 PM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (Osama bin Laden is dead, Chrysler moved to Italy and China.)
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To: Steelfish

What’s the date of this poll — not November 6? Well, I will wait until then.


6 posted on 10/31/2012 10:31:51 PM PDT by Jyotishi (Seeking the truth, a fact at a time.)
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To: CatOwner

We don’t live in a sealed echo-chamber. It’s not not about Romney being behind, its about Obama losing ground in Dem turf. Just goes to show how superficial some here are.


7 posted on 10/31/2012 10:38:07 PM PDT by Steelfish (ui)
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To: Steelfish

Internals?


8 posted on 10/31/2012 10:39:01 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: CatOwner; Steelfish

Within Striking Distance”], CatOwner wrote:
Nobody, but nobody, posts polls where Romney is behind on this forum more than you. Late into the evening too. Tell Obama we said “Hi”.

Steelfish is the messenger not the massager of the message.In Wisconsin compared to 2008 saw a mere handfull of yard signs in PROM known as Madistan (Peoples Republic Of Madison) while signs don’t vote and Poles do. But there’s not too many of them in Madistan just a lot of mush heads..


9 posted on 10/31/2012 10:51:03 PM PDT by mosesdapoet (The best way to punish a - country is let professors run it. Fredrick the Great para/p)
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To: fortheDeclaration

This report is contrary to what Scott Rasmussen said on Hannity last night. (I think it was Hannity, but I could be mistaken. HE was on one of the shows and said opposite of what this poster is saying.


10 posted on 10/31/2012 10:54:32 PM PDT by Catsrus (WANT)
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To: Steelfish

what are the internals????


11 posted on 10/31/2012 11:06:47 PM PDT by Nifster
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To: Steelfish

No I got that it was about Romney’s surge. Still would like the internals....WSJ has in the past been using the 2008 turn out which is grossly out of whack with reality this time around


12 posted on 10/31/2012 11:09:15 PM PDT by Nifster
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To: mosesdapoet; CatOwner

Re-assuring to know we always have some intelligent people here on FR to try driving some sense into others who continually appear to act like the three proverbial monkeys. We must examine and deal with all polls but especially that we not turn a blind eye to those who poll for or are reported in reputable publications and the WSJ must surely rank up there.


13 posted on 10/31/2012 11:10:38 PM PDT by Steelfish (ui)
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To: One Name

Bingo.

Only the braindead don’t see the obvious. This is *not* a close election, at all. Obama is about to be rejected.


14 posted on 10/31/2012 11:16:36 PM PDT by jjsheridan5 (concern trolls are gonna be concerned)
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To: Steelfish
Re-assuring to know we always have some intelligent people here on FR to try driving some sense into others who continually appear to act like the three proverbial monkeys. We must examine and deal with all polls but especially that we not turn a blind eye to those who poll for or are reported in reputable publications and the WSJ must surely rank up there.

The more important thing is to drive some sense into those who, for whatever reason, cannot see the obvious. Obama is about to get obliterated. This is *not* a close election. At all. Romney in a walk.
15 posted on 10/31/2012 11:24:43 PM PDT by jjsheridan5 (concern trolls are gonna be concerned)
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To: Steelfish

INTERNALS????


16 posted on 10/31/2012 11:35:41 PM PDT by ShovelThemOut
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To: ShovelThemOut

The internals appear to be behind a pay wall. All I can see is the abstract basically


17 posted on 11/01/2012 1:28:34 AM PDT by Fai Mao
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To: CatOwner; Steelfish

He’s not known as “Trollfish” without reason!


18 posted on 11/01/2012 4:32:56 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: CatOwner

CO, absolutely right...
I’ve called this poster on it in the recent past...
Good catch...


19 posted on 11/01/2012 4:38:39 AM PDT by matginzac (Nici)
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To: Steelfish; Hunton Peck; Diana in Wisconsin; P from Sheb; Shady; DonkeyBonker; Wisconsinlady; JPG; ..

WSJ poll says Wisconsin within striking distance for Romney

FReep Mail me if you want on, or off, this Wisconsin interest ping list.


20 posted on 11/01/2012 4:55:08 AM PDT by afraidfortherepublic
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To: LS; tatown; SoftwareEngineer; Ravi

Today’s polling averages:

O+0.03% - Current RCP Average
O+0.56% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+2.23% - Average using the D+3 turnout model
R+4.46% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+4.51% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
R+6.24% - Average using the Rasmussen Party ID turnout model


21 posted on 11/01/2012 5:23:52 AM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: Catsrus

which was what?


22 posted on 11/01/2012 5:25:46 AM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: Perdogg

Does anyone really believe these polls? When more demodummies are interviewed than reoubs, tell me the poll is an accurate one>

The “final” poll will be on Nov. 7th........when its over!


23 posted on 11/01/2012 5:51:12 AM PDT by DaveA37
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To: One Name
You only get to see this stuff twice in a lifetime

I lived through that too. It was the second presidential election I voted in. I sense something different. I remember a "cult like" enthusiasm for Reagan. Having just come back from visiting Communist Eastern Europe, I was a card carrying member of that cult. I still am. Also, throughout that campaign, there was no positive support for Carter. He led in the polls because people were afraid of the image they had of Reagan.

This time, the enthusiasm on our side is all anti-Obama. And unlike then, there are countless idiots who actually like what Obama has done. I still think that Romney wins. He could win comfortably. But I will be joyfully surprised if it is a blow out.

24 posted on 11/01/2012 7:06:30 AM PDT by outofstyle (Down All the Days)
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To: LS

No wonder you are known as one whose elevator is stuck in basement!


25 posted on 11/01/2012 8:20:30 AM PDT by Steelfish (ui)
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To: Steelfish

Ah, the Trollfish comes up for air.


26 posted on 11/01/2012 8:26:21 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: Steelfish

That is the best rejoinder you can come up with?


27 posted on 11/01/2012 9:38:08 AM PDT by arrogantsob (The Disaster MUST Go. Sarah herself supports Romney.)
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To: fortheDeclaration
Internals:

Wisconsin:
LV: D+5 (D-34, R-29, I-35)
RV D+6 (D-34, R-28, I-36)

NH:
LV: D+1 (D-27, R-26, I-47)
RV: D+1 (D- 26, R-25, I-48)

Iowa:
LV: D+3 (D-34, R-31, I-34)
RV:D+1 (D-32, R-31, I-36)

28 posted on 11/01/2012 9:55:09 AM PDT by andy58-in-nh (Cogito, ergo armatum sum.)
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To: arrogantsob; LS

Rejoinder? See the posts by others who intelligently rebut the foolishness of those few FRs who cannot handle, analyze, or interpret polls that reflect anything outside their echo-chamber bubble.


29 posted on 11/01/2012 11:24:35 AM PDT by Steelfish (ui)
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To: Steelfish

Says Trollfish who has NEVER come to grips with the OH absentee spreadsheet, most likely because he can’ understand it.


30 posted on 11/01/2012 11:27:58 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: Steelfish

I have seen none of that rebuttal.

As it stands LS is one of the more astute analysts of these polls.

It is totally false that most of us do not look at the internals in determining how much credence to put in a poll.
The only ones who take the Pig in the Poke are those who believe The Disaster is winning and going to win.

It is UNDENIABLE that the only way pollsters can manufacture any lead at all for The Disaster is by manipulation of the poll sample to show 3+ more for RATs than is justified.


31 posted on 11/01/2012 11:32:24 AM PDT by arrogantsob (The Disaster MUST Go. Sarah herself supports Romney.)
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To: arrogantsob

Check the post by mosesdapoet.

The problem with internals is that all polls have them. And we all know that the internals matter. But we cannot attack Gallup one day because the polls did not favor us (as was the case some weeks ago) and them embrace Gallup when it supports our nominee. This is what I mean by living-in-a-bubble. I appreciate those who take the time and analyze the internals and tell us what’s wrong if any, and why. But simply discarding information that is carried by reputable non-partisan groups (FoxNews, WSJ) is to reflect an innate disconnect with the messenger rather than a review of the message. We all know you can slice and dice the internals based on national or state voting patterns in presidential (2008) and non-presidential election years (2010). Accordingly to a reputable blog in the Evening Standard the variations can swing from +5 Obama to +5 Romney depending on what metric one uses. We ought not to discount and resort to a mood of complacency by simply rejecting as false all polls that don’t favor us and oly embracing all polls that support us. That does not do either the readers or the candidate any favors. Indeed, about the same time some polls (only Rasmussen) were showing Romney ahead in OH, every other poll including RNC internal polls (if you believe Gov. Kasich on FoxNews) was showing this was still a dead even race or Obama in a slight lead. So does one suppress a reporting of this poll?


32 posted on 11/01/2012 11:53:21 AM PDT by Steelfish (ui)
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To: arrogantsob

Check the post by mosesdapoet.

The problem with internals is that all polls have them. And we all know that the internals matter. But we cannot attack Gallup one day because the polls did not favor us (as was the case some weeks ago) and them embrace Gallup when it supports our nominee. This is what I mean by living-in-a-bubble. I appreciate those who take the time and analyze the internals and tell us what’s wrong if any, and why. But simply discarding information that is carried by reputable non-partisan groups (FoxNews, WSJ) is to reflect an innate disconnect with the messenger rather than a review of the message. We all know you can slice and dice the internals based on national or state voting patterns in presidential (2008) and non-presidential election years (2010). Accordingly to a reputable blog in the Evening Standard the variations can swing from +5 Obama to +5 Romney depending on what metric one uses. We ought not to discount and resort to a mood of complacency by simply rejecting as false all polls that don’t favor us and oly embracing all polls that support us. That does not do either the readers or the candidate any favors. Indeed, about the same time some polls (only Rasmussen) were showing Romney ahead in OH, every other poll including RNC internal polls (if you believe Gov. Kasich on FoxNews) was showing this was still a dead even race or Obama in a slight lead. So does one suppress a reporting of this poll?


33 posted on 11/01/2012 12:02:30 PM PDT by Steelfish (ui)
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To: Steelfish

Gallup was justly criticized for months because it polled REGISTERED VOTERS. Critics, including me, pointed out that this gave The Disaster at least 2-3% pts more than justified.

Gallup SWITCHED to Likely Voters within the last month which flipped the poll into a more accurate estimate. The latest polls are not more believable because we like the results but because it is methodologically sounder.

Rasmussen, contrary to his own findings, has consistently had a +3 D sample and only lately has it tied in Ohio. Why?

When you ask Why? with all these polls the answers are not good.

While I am one who has consistently predicted a landslide for R that belief is based on more than the polls
(although that would be enough) but also on the same kind of feeling I had in 1980. I was not even a big Reagan fan but realized that he was going to wipe the floor with Carter. I have the same feeling now.

Even the supine American electorate can be aroused by outrageous incompetence and policies. That happened in 1980 and is going to in 2012.

And the gigantic untold story is the complete ignoring of the Tea Party’s influence. Does anyone believe that it has dropped since 2010?

Who suggests suppressing any poll? I would not publicize one which hides its internals which some have started to do once it was realized that we were on to them.


34 posted on 11/01/2012 12:20:23 PM PDT by arrogantsob (The Disaster MUST Go. Sarah herself supports Romney.)
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To: arrogantsob

OK, now we are talking analysis which is what is needed here. And I appreciate your distinction on how Gallup switched from registered to likely voters.

There is an interesting piece by Michael Barone, the undisputed maestro in polling analyses, who in today’s online National Review dissects the changing electorate in some of the key battleground states and why a paucity of “affluent suburbs” and less so in OH that in other states like WI and MN and PA which explains the phenomenon we are seeing. This goes beyond analyses of internals.


35 posted on 11/01/2012 1:26:42 PM PDT by Steelfish (ui)
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To: Steelfish

While sociological and economic trends are very interesting the pollsters would not have to manipulate their sample to get the results they want if they told the whole story. They would actually use an appropriate ratio of likely voters.

Another tactic is to over-sample women.


36 posted on 11/01/2012 2:14:01 PM PDT by arrogantsob (The Disaster MUST Go. Sarah herself supports Romney.)
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To: arrogantsob

The way I see it is that Romney must win two of these three states to get to the White House: IA, WI, OH.

This is Obama’s firewall. And his campaign schedule for the next three days confirms this. If the margins of error are accepted, then this is a dead heat. There is no poll that shows any candidate ahead of the other by more than five points.


37 posted on 11/01/2012 4:04:19 PM PDT by Steelfish (ui)
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To: outofstyle

Yes, the motivation is a wholesale rejection of obama, more than any great vision being laid out by Romney.

But, I think he does grasp that and may surprise us yet.

I’m hoping to be pleasantly surprised as well!


38 posted on 11/01/2012 6:53:36 PM PDT by One Name (Ultimately, the TRUTH is a razor's edge and no man can sit astride it.)
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