Skip to comments.VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: New numbers even more troubling for Obama
Posted on 11/01/2012 6:55:46 AM PDT by TonyInOhio
I've been following Dave Wasserman of Cook Political Report on Twitter. He has been updating the tallies of the early vote in Virginia, and what he is finding is more and more bad news for Obama:
VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: Today's new 10/31 numbers even more troubling for Obama. His best counties way off '08 pace
VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: Turnout down 13.6% in Obama '08 localities, vs. just 1.1% in McCain '08 (statewide down 9.2%)
VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE 10/31: 185,489 ballots cast in Obama localities (214,783 by this pt. in '08), 115,908 in McCain (117,224 in '08)
VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: Even more worrisome for O...in Kerry '04 localities (hardcore D places), turnout -18.1% vs. '08 (only -1.7% in Bush)
VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: Obama strongholds Arlington -20.0%, Fairfax - 20.9%, Richmond -13.7% (vs. just -9.2% statewide). Hmm..
Before you panic about poll numbers keep this in mind - they don't reflect reality on the ground.
VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: In Romney strongholds, enthusiasm up. Hanover (33.1% Obama) turnout up 6.2%, Buchanan (coal country) up 14.5% vs. '08
It is early AB not EV
VA EARLY VOTE: By no means does this spreadsheet spell doom for Obama in VA, it just shows '12 ain't at all '08
But the pollsters think it is - in fact, they think it is *better* than 2008!
Yes, I know, but I'm using Wasserman's term. Also, votes are votes, and turnout is turnout. :)
Karl Rove was on Fox this morning. According to his numbers There have been ~186,000 fewer Dem voters then this time in 2008. While there have been 75,000 MORE GOP voters.
Obama won Ohio last time by approx 260,000 votes, which is the current spread.
It’s pretty obvious now the wheels are coming off the cooked polls train. They’ve survived by speculation and conjecture. The hard numbers are difficult to explain.
I’m so looking forward to next Tuesday and hearing the BS.
I’ve ben working the phones for Romney. This last week it’s all GOTV calls and I gotta tell you...Romney voters are ALL anxious to vote, although few are willing to vote early (myself included).
You mean that Obama's 260,000 margin from 2008 has been wiped out in the early voting, so the current spread is close to zero, right?
My question is, are the comparisons seen here 2012 AB vs 2008 AB+EV or AB vs AB only. Hoping we're not seeing an apples and oranges comparison.
>> According to his numbers There have been ~186,000 fewer Dem voters then this time in 2008. While there have been 75,000 MORE GOP voters.
Ohio? Virginia? Or ???
As an aside, the Hurricane Sandy mess is a perfect illustration of why all states should have at least two weeks of full early voting, thus insuring against any such predictable but not avoidable disruptions affecting the election.
These results are "troubling for 0bama" ... 0bama is the central figure, the 'hero'.
Why are these results not presented as "reassuring for Romney"?
Sorry that was Ohio, but its consistent with VA it seems.
Message being that dem voter turnout is way down, GOP voter turnout is up.
That might be down but not out...we have to beat his numbers before hand to make up for the built-in fraud that's coming our way...Dems have lawyered-up in all the swing states and we may not have a winner next Wednesday.
Obama isnt’ visiting VA or CO last weekend of campaing, just OHIO, IA and WIA(Thinking he is writing off OH and CO).. Romney is going VA, OH WI and TDB for Sunday.. possibly MI????
And Asians are also voting Rep this time around compared to 2008. Very encouraging. There is no doubt that our people are more motivated and enthusiastic. We are averaging about 400 absentee in-person ballots a day since it started on October 17 at the satellite locations. The voting at the Government Center started a few weeks earlier. From Rep officials I am hearing that we are even if not a little bit ahead of the Dems in early voting countywide. Obama won Fairfax County, the largest in the state, by 110,000 votes. If we can break about even here, Romney will easily win the state. So far, so good. Three more days of early voting.
Wasserman is doing direct comparison with 2008, so I assume it is AB vs. AB only. Did VA have early (non-absentee) voting in 2008? I can't imagine him not mentioning it, if so.
>> Message being that dem voter turnout is way down, GOP voter turnout is up.
I posted this info mostly to help point out the obvious bias in the media polling, which I suspect will be over the top this weekend. The MSM wants you discouraged, but all of the information coming out from early and absentee voting in the states Romney needs to win shows him holding his own or surpassing Obama. Meaning: he wins!
yes, at face value it means Obamas 2008 advantage is gone.
However the numbers only look at registered Dem and GOP voters. They don’t look at Indies and they don’t account for crossovers. In 2008 a lot of Republicans crossed over and voted for Obama. Few Dems crossed over to vote for McCain.
The question is, what will happen this year? If early voting indies are going overwhelmingly to Romney and the crossover situation from 2008 is reversed, Romney may already have an insurmountable lead in OH.
That’s somewhat informed speculation on my part,we’ll only know the truth on election day and my fingers are definitely crossed.
We have EARLY IN-PERSON ABSENTEE BALLOTING IN VA.
In 2008 18% of the votes cast were done this way. The fact is it is de facto early voting. No one challenges the reasons provided, which are many and easily met. You vote on an actual electronic voting machine, just as you do on election day. Once early voting is completed this Saturday, the machines will be sent to the county voting HDQTRS for safekeeping. On election day, the machines will download their voting totals by Congressional district just like any other voting machine.
How do I know this? I am a poll observer at a satellite location in VA. Anyone who thinks that there are no early voting stations in VA doesn't know what they are talking about and should get better informed. We (GOP) are ENCOURAGING people to vote early. Your disinformation does not further our objective.
The Dems have been using early voting here in VA for some time. Finally, the GOP has awakened. And we are so far more than holding our own.
What effect is Virgil Goode having?
You mean they may not exceed Republicans by 10%? How can that be from our unbiased press?
Pray for America
Although I hope you're correct, don't such polls pave the way for massive election fraud before the end of next Tuesday? Are there realistic ways for Dems to "stuff ballot boxes" on Election Day? If Dems know in advance how much they need to make up (which they can deduce from these early voting numbers), can they conceivably generate enough "dead" votes to live up to these over-sampled polls?
To reiterate, we do have in-person, early voting in VA, just like we had in 2008. The Dems here urge their folks to vote early. It is part of their strategy. Now we are starting to do the same thing and they are flummoxed.
How exactly are they "kept safe"? Tamper-proof sealed boxes? Armed guards? What?
“Im so looking forward to next Tuesday and hearing the BS.”
Exactly!...Shows like the brain dead View on Wednesday morning should be fun to watch. Gilligans loss will not go down well with Whoopie and Joy Joy! LMAO! Boo Hoo!
It is worth noting that these are totals for “Obama localities” and not votes for Obama. In fact, GOP AB is up in Obama localities and Dem voting is down. How do we know this? By checking who has already voted and being able to identify our voters. We don’t have party affiliation in VA, but there are other ways to identify voter preferences.
Agreed. The effect of In Person Absentee in the Commonwealth is people vote early. I have not heard of anyone being denied In Person Absentee.
I can also see why polls conducted during the weekends are so varied from weekday polling. I get something like 90% no answers or answering machines on Saturdays but nearly 50% answers on weekdays.
You are reading too much into it. Obama is the incumbent, so that right there is reason enough. It’s also a subtle jab at the polls who are pushing the 2008 voter spread into this election.
In other words, relax. I do recall similar headlines concerning Bush back in the day.
Both. They are sealed each evening at the satellite station and then after early voting is completed, they are sealed until election day. The containers are sealed and placed in a sealed locked cabinet. And there are armed guards surrounding the government center facility. No armed guard at the satellite facility however, but there is an alarm system.
>> And there are armed guards surrounding the government center facility.
The sealing is good.
But unless the armed guards are actually WITH the ballots and all entry and exit is recorded, they offer little protection. Vote tampering will likely be an INSIDE job, and armed guards merely controlling access to the facility are just feel-good “security theater”.
Negligible. He falls under the 1% "other candidate" category.
That is correct.
In 2008, it was Dems +2.5%. In 2004, it was Republicans +1.5%.
Most polls are now using Dems +3 to +8...so better turnout from Dems than in 2008. No rational person would expect that.
My guess at intensity is that the Republicans are slightly more intense this year than in 2004, so maybe R +2. That was Gallup’s guess as well. If correct, Romney will win with a margin comparable to Obama’s victory in 2008.
I don’t ever trust the MSM polls. I’ll go with Gallup and Rasmussen. The others are using their polls to manipulate the public. Newsweek used to be THE worst, actually laughable.
Question. Do you have a feel if the above means more Republicans in total are or will be voting this year, or more are voting early this time around?
I'm starting to wonder if polling is headed the way of the buggy whip precisely because of the proliferation of communications technology.
What people tell you on a phone today has lost all correlation with what people who get in their car and drive to a polling place will do in the booth.
Early on when bells rang and people politely answered the door/phone, polling worked. Now that caller id, do-not call lists, voicemail (how many people really still have landlines with answering machines!), unlisted numbers, cell phones with all the above... etc....even if you can reach them, the proliferation of these "communications curtains" implies that people don't politely want to talk to others, possibly particularly strangers!
There is SO MUCH NOISE in the data now, the filters used to recover the signal are recovering whatever the filter designers choose!
So I think society is headed in a way where pre-polling and exit-polling is going to become relatively useless.
It’s important to note that when they speak of “localities” in VA, they mean counties or independent cities (there are a lot of the latter). Some liberals have tried to show better results for Obama in certain precincts in some state or other, ignoring the fact that precinct number 104 from 2008 could be way different from precinct 104 in 2012 due to redistricting. However, county (and independent city) lines stayed the same, so Cook is comparing apples to apples. These findings indeed are great news.
There is no doubt that more Reps will vote this time around. They are far more motivated and angry than 2008.
From your lips to God’s ear.
If you apply the 2010 model, which this election is looking more and more like...you get a massive Obama defeat from the polling. The MSM and major polling places to date are unwilling to do this.
Dick Morris is averaging the elections from 2000 through 2010 and is showing a large Romney win...his model may end up being the most accurate...for obvious reasons.
On November 6th, We the People are goingt to STAND OBAMA DOWN!
LOL! My wife and I had this discussion last night. I agree with you completely. I also don’t see political campaigns paying for the expense of phone banks for much longer. It gets worse evrry election. I’ve been volunteering for campaigns since I was a kid and I’ll bet I’ve made half a million calls in my time. Used to be you got an answer on nearly every call and when someone answered they’d listen to what you had to say. Those days are gone and never coming back.
I plead innocent! I don't even know your wife! =D
Got things nailed down in Ohio so you’ve turned your attention to Virginia, Tony?
Actually these polls are reflecting what is on the ground. They can NOT show a poll with a reasonable breakout of voters. They can ONLY come up with a lead by wildly oversampling RATS.
The polls are actually showing a huge landslide for R/R. 5-10%.
Not only is that all true but now we are pestered by unwanted phone calls for more than in the past.
When they started polling many people still did not even have phones and, for those who did, calls were fairly rare so people would talk to a pollster.
Now it is non-stop calls for phoney viagra, insurance, scams of various sorts. AT LEAST 50% of my calls are unwanted. And when you can look at the number calling, forget an unnamed and/or strange number.